The situation in Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the global stock market fluctuated.
On February 22, the three major A-share indexes fell collectively.
The Russian Trading System Index (RTS Index) fell 13.21% at the close on February 21, and fell 6.85% at the opening on February 22. After the central bank of Russia said it was ready to support the financial market, the intraday rebound narrowed to 5% .
Some financial institutions have analyzed that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may cause commodity volatility to a certain extent and affect investors' risk appetite, but in general, the impact on the domestic stock market is small.
Investors are advised to wait and see in the short-term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of low-valued blue-chip stocks in the middle.
Text/Wang Chuhan and Zhang Lu, all media reporters of Guangzhou Daily
The three major A-share indexes fluctuated lower and the Hang Seng Index closed down
Yesterday, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated lower. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.38%.
Individual stocks fell more and rose less, and nearly 3,800 individual stocks in the market fell.
The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on that day was 978.3 billion yuan, an increase of 77.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day.
The net sales of northbound funds was 7.34 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sales of 4.242 billion yuan in Shanghai Stock Connect and a net sales of 3.098 billion yuan in Shenzhen Stock Connect.
On the disk, sectors such as media, hotel and catering, airport shipping, and medical equipment were among the top losers.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, as of the close, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.89% to close at 5226.7 points; the Hang Seng Index fell 2.69% to close at 23520 points; the China Enterprises Index fell 2.19% to close at 8270.69 points.
From the perspective of industry sectors, gas, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals were among the top losers, while only dealers, water affairs, and equity REITs rose.
Centaline Securities pointed out that the current external factors are unpredictable, and the impact on investors' stockholding mentality is more obvious. The Shanghai index is still in the adjustment since December 13 last year. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external markets. .
It is expected that the Shanghai Index is more likely to undergo a small short-term consolidation, and the ChiNext market is likely to fluctuate slightly in the short-term.
Investors are advised to wait and see in the short-term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of low-valued blue-chip stocks in the middle.
Russian stocks tumble, Asia-Pacific stocks mostly down
The Russian Trading System Index (RTS Index) closed down 13.21% on the 21st.
In the afternoon of February 22, Beijing time, it fell 6.85% after the opening, and then the decline quickly expanded to 10%.
The rebound pared losses to 5 percent after Russia's central bank said it was ready to support financial markets.
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly lower.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 26,449.61 points, down 1.71%; the Korea Composite Index closed at 2,706.79 points, down 1.35%.
On the 22nd, European stocks also opened sharply lower collectively. The German DAX30 index fell 2.63%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 1.62%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.91%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 2.4%.
Yuekai Securities analysis pointed out that from the equity market, there is no need to worry about a sharp drop in the stock market in the medium and long term, but short-term adjustments may be inevitable. Sectors such as industrial raw materials are expected to dominate, and growth sectors may experience a pullback; from bonds For the market, the bond yield level is expected to move down slightly, but unless the scale of the war exceeds expectations, the adjustment may not be large; from the current point of view, the escalation of the conflict will make the allocation value of crude oil higher than that of precious metals such as gold.
The impact of the conflict on the U.S. dollar index may not be large, but given that the Federal Reserve is accelerating monetary policy tightening, the U.S. dollar index is still prone to rising and falling.
Risk aversion highlights gold gains
Affected by the Russia-Ukraine incident, safe-haven assets rose.
As of 18:10 Beijing time on February 22, gold rose slightly, and the New York gold masters rose to $1,902.2 an ounce.
On February 21, the gold price bottomed out and rose slightly and closed up slightly, setting a new high in more than eight months.
How is the market outlook?
The industry generally believes that short-term risk aversion dominates the market, and the role of gold in risk aversion is prominent.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures analysis said that short-term risk aversion dominates the market, but the driving force of the marginal upward has weakened, and the cooling may cause gold and silver to pull back.
Soochow Futures said that the Fed has accelerated its tightening of monetary policy due to factors such as high inflation, but the market has basically expected it.
At present, the focus of the market is still on inflation and interest rates; if the upward pressure on inflation increases in the later period, the Fed may raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet ahead of schedule, which will be unfavorable to the price of gold; in the context of tightening monetary policy, the high U.S. stocks fluctuate The rate has increased significantly, increasing the market's demand for gold's safe-haven properties.
In the short and medium term, the price of gold remains high and fluctuates widely amid the contradictions of upward inflation expectations, Fed tightening policies, and demand for safe-haven attributes.
CITIC Futures believes that overseas gold prices may have a chance to reach $2,000/oz.
Regarding the operation strategy, Founder Medium-term Futures suggested that it is not recommended to short the precious metals in the current trend, and the core of the operation is to sell all the losses and do more on the dips.
International oil prices rose sharply, US crude oil rose more than 5% in a row
Under the intensifying geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, global oil prices further rose. As of 18:05 on February 22, Beijing time, Brent crude oil rose to US$95.75 per barrel in a row, an increase of more than 2.97%; US crude oil rose to 94.54 in a row. USD/barrel, an increase of more than 4.8%.
Shanghai crude oil prices rose 5.59%, hitting a new high in more than three years. The main contract 2204 ended at 596.9 yuan/barrel, up 31.6 yuan/barrel.
Topix futures analysis said that geopolitical events increase volatility, the fundamentals are bullish for oil prices, and short-term risk premiums may lead to further increases in oil prices, but it is difficult to become a factor that continues to push up oil prices. From a fundamental point of view, less-than-expected supply is an important price boost factor.
Industry insiders also said that although the recent strong performance of oil prices is due to low inventories and tight supply as the core factor, geopolitical factors have affected the stability of supply, causing market concerns and boosting oil prices.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, believes that the continued shortage of the global crude oil market in February has become a foregone conclusion, which has directly led to the recent strong spot performance of the crude oil market and a sharp rise in the futures market.
CITIC Futures said that recent geo-risks have pushed up oil prices, but the net long position of funds is still trending downward, and attention should be paid to the risk of differentiation between positions and price trends.
Before the short-term geopolitical risks are alleviated, the oil price may remain relatively high; after the medium-term financial and supply and demand pressures are realized, the oil price pressure will gradually increase.