Feed, food, gold, energy or bitcoin: the effects of the Russian attack on the pocket and the economic recovery

• Invasion Russia's attack on Ukraine forces the suspension of the grain market in Spain

Russia's attack on Ukraine has opened a new phase of uncertainty, volatility and fear in the markets, which had been debating for weeks whether Moscow would finally launch a military operation in the area after the Winter Olympics or if the episode would remain a verbal escalation and diplomatic.

In recent days, in fact, they have opted more for the latter option, but

's announcement in the middle of Wednesday morning cleared up doubts and its consequences have been felt throughout Thursday in the main elections.

The Asian indices were the first to assume the effects of the offensive, with falls close to 2%;

however, the impact has been greater on European stock markets.

The Dax in Frankfurt and the Cac 30 in Paris ended with falls of 3.9 and 3.8%, respectively;

the Ftse Mib of Milan has fallen by 4.15%, and in Spain, the

has received a drop of 2.86% that has made it fall back to levels of a year ago, up to

"It is not strange that the day the missiles fall, the stock markets react with sharp falls and the price of shelter assets and energy-related raw materials rises. In the coming days, in addition to the military escalation, it will also produce a verbal escalation and we will be subjected to a bombardment of media noise", explains

, partner and general director of

.

Petroleum

Added to the tension in the stock markets is the tension in the energy markets, where the main concern is that oil and gas supply problems will be generated.

Russia is the second

, but also the largest producer of natural gas.

Uncertainty over supply has soared above 100 dollars a barrel for

, a benchmark in Europe,

its highest value since July 2014. Analysts believe the price hike could reach exceed $120.

For its part, natural gas prices in the EU have increased by more than 34%, to 119 euros per megawatt-hour, a level not seen in two months.

Gas shortages in Europe have worsened because Germany already blocked the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline on Monday, making further problems with gas supplies likely.

threatens the recovery

But the implications of the conflict in energy matters go beyond the risks to supply, since the crisis occurs in

after the impact of the coronavirus and with governments around the world struggling to contain inflation.

"This is a triple whammy for the global economy, with a toxic combination of higher inflation, lower economic growth and heightened uncertainty. The only silver lining is that growth is strong, a buffer to any slowdown, and policymakers and investors are already braced for high inflation," says

global markets strategist

platform

.

Along these lines, Joaquín Casasús explains that "central banks, which had already begun to tighten their monetary policy to contain inflation, now have to incorporate even higher energy prices into their scenarios, although in the context of an armed conflict, what is reasonable is that they do not accelerate rate hikes and give themselves a little more time to control prices".

The US Federal Reserve has more advanced plans for the withdrawal of stimuli, however, it is Europe that faces the greatest risks in this regard.

"The main economic contagion mechanism is the price of energy and that poses particular challenges for Europe given its reliance on Russian energy," says

, chief investment officer at

.

"This situation has damaging implications for growth and complicates the picture for the European Central Bank," she adds.

Following this line,

, Director of

at

, points out that "given that the crisis could affect growth in the US and, in particular, that of Europe, the main central banks could move from fighting inflation to reestablishing the growth and the proper functioning of the capital markets, depending on the duration of the crisis".

And he says more.

"In reality, markets are already revisiting the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's projected rate hike path in anticipation of

moves , as the long end of the US Treasury curve is showing large declines in yields. real".

cereals and food

Analysts point out that, in addition to energy prices,

are also facing supply problems and sharp price increases, given that both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters and their confrontation could force many countries to seek alternative sources. .

This has already begun to manifest itself this Thursday.

and the Russian attack has forced the suspension of the grain market in Spain.

"The situation is unpredictable and very worrying at the moment," says

, general secretary of Accoe (Spanish Grain and Oilseed Trade Association) in conversation with

.

According to his data, Spain is the main producer of feed in Europe and imports between 15 and 17 million tons of cereals each year;

35% of its corn imports come from Kiev, as do 10% of wheat purchases and up to 75% of sunflower oil.

Álvarez assures that for now

Uncertainty about transit through Ukrainian and Eastern European ports could lead them to look for products in other markets, where rising demand is already putting pressure on costs.

that we consume every day," he points out.

Gold

The stampede of equities finds refuge in traditional assets such as the dollar, US Treasury debt, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and

.

The gold metal has stood at 1,930 dollars, although at times in the morning it has exceeded maximums of the last year and a half, but the flight of investors has also translated into increases in other metals such as

(+3.70 %),

(+8.05%),

(+5.48%),

(+5.86%) or

(+3.34%).

As explained by

, an analyst at IG Markets, these metals are skyrocketing "in the face of widespread fear of the possibility of a war, which would trigger a reduction in their supply", taking into account that Russia is a powerful producer of aluminum. , cobalt, fertilizers, gold, diamonds, nickel, platinum, steel and copper.

Bitcoin

For their part, cryptocurrencies have reacted again as risky assets and have gone through the entire session in the

.

The most popular of them all,

, lost $36,000 at the close of stock markets in Europe after enduring a drop of almost 7%;

the decline has been even greater (-9.4%) for

, which by then lost 2,500

.

Terra, Solana, Cardano or Dogecoin have replicated

the crashes, which in some cases reached double digits.

"It is too soon to know what will happen to cryptocurrencies with the current crisis since the uncertainty could continue to create a selling panic. Everything will depend on the action carried out by the countries involved, with a diplomatic channel right now broken," says Diego Morín , from IG Markets.

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• Russia

• Ukraine

• Bitcoin

Macroeconomics The Ibex 35 falls to a one-year low and oil shoots up to 103 dollars after Putin's attack in Ukraine

Macroeconomics The tension in Ukraine sinks the European stock markets and gives the Ibex 35 a fall of 3.18%

Markets Oil soars and approaches 100 dollars before Putin's offensive in Ukraine

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