Editor’s note:
International crude oil “breaks 100”, gas in Europe and Asia is in short supply, and the domestic thermal coal price center climbs to the thousand-yuan mark... After the global energy shortage in 2021, at the beginning of 2022, the energy issue is still affecting people’s hearts, and it has continued to be the hottest capital market. word list.
However, amid the voices of rising international energy prices, there are also news of domestic protection of people's livelihood, increased production and stable prices.
Under the general direction of steady economic growth in 2022, my country's energy market is facing the ever-changing international situation, and the phased supply and demand relationship is still complicated.
What issues will the domestic and foreign energy markets face in the new year that need attention?
Can the policy effectiveness of my country's energy price stabilization finally emerge?
Under the background of "double carbon", what about the progress and market impact of domestic energy structure adjustment?
Recently, reporters from Securities Times · e company have actually explored the first-line coal mines and petrochemical companies, and communicated with listed companies and professional analysis institutions in the industry, in order to gain insight into the market pattern in advance and pulse energy price trends.
Securities Times reporter Zhao Liyun
After the Spring Festival, the domestic coal market is turbulent and rising, and the "ballast stone" that regulates supply and stabilizes prices has followed suit.
On February 22, the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission held another video conference on stabilizing coal prices. The conference mainly focused on the current coal market price situation, studying and regulating coal market transactions, and stabilizing the coal price market.
A reporter from Securities Times·e Company investigated the coal production line after the festival and learned that, unlike the tradition of phased slowdown of supply at the beginning of the lunar calendar in previous years, coal companies maintained a normal production rhythm before and after the Spring Festival this year, and the effect of ensuring supply was obvious.
Most companies and analysts in the coal industry believe that despite the current global energy shortage news, as an important energy source in my country, the coal market will achieve stable fluctuations under the adjustment of the supply guarantee policy. It is also difficult for the previous abnormally high situation to occur again.
Coal mine supply guarantee continues
As an important watershed of the three major water systems of the Yellow River, the Huai River and the Yangtze River, the Funiu Mountains stretch for more than 800 miles and are a major mountain range extending from the Qinling Mountains to Henan Province.
Shoushan, located 5 miles south of Xiangcheng County, Henan Province, is named after the head of barberry.
Shoushan not only carries a long history and culture, but also contains abundant coal reserves.
Shoushan No. 1 Mine, one of the 14 major coal mines under China Pingmei Shenma Group, is located here. The Group and Baowu Group jointly funded the establishment of Henan Pingbao Coal Industry Co., Ltd. The local recoverable reserves of 308 million tons of coal resources are planned to be mined.
Different from the tradition of "long vacation" of coal enterprises around the Spring Festival in previous years, just after the Lunar New Year of the Tiger, the reporter of Securities Times·e Company saw the scene of fiery production in Pingbao Company.
Although it was Sunday, in the company building, the staff of the production dispatch command center were busy communicating the progress of the mining; at the wellhead, the cages also continuously carried the front-line coal workers to and from the bottom of the well up to 760 meters deep to perform work tasks; and in the outfield, also It can be seen that the internal train slowly drives out and transports the freshly produced coal products from the coal bunker to the surrounding coking plants.
"Under the national policy of guaranteeing production, and thanks to the company's intelligent production in the past two years, the company's intelligent production has reduced staff and increased efficiency. During the Spring Festival this year, the mine did not take a day off, maintaining normal production levels." On a Sunday holiday, Zhang Guochuan, chairman of Pingbao Company, was on duty on duty. He told a reporter from Securities Times·e Company that in recent years, the company has intelligently transformed the coal mining process, making the coal mining team that originally required more than 30 people. down to five people.
Zhang Guochuan introduced that during the Spring Festival in previous years, Shoushan No. 1 Mine had at least three days of maintenance time.
After the Spring Festival holiday, personnel must also have a process of returning to work, to fully resume normal production, and the earliest after the sixth day of the new year.
However, in order to ensure supply this year, the coal mine has only done maintenance work on the first day of the new year, and it has also guaranteed the planned production target on that day. The production situation at other times is the same as usual.
"Although the raw coal products produced by Pingbao Company are mostly washed and refined, they are used downstream as high value-added coking coal, but in order to ensure the local power supply, the company has also produced and guaranteed supply for local thermal power enterprises in Xuchang in recent years. The raw coal can be used for power generation after doping and blending," Zhang Guochuan said.
The supply guarantee measure of Shoushan No. 1 Mine is the epitome of the current domestic coal enterprises and related industries to improve the production and supply capacity of coal energy.
The relevant person in charge of Orchid Science and Innovation told the reporter of Securities Times E Company that in previous years, the first-line production departments of coal mines had more than 20 days of Spring Festival holiday, but this year, in order to complete the task of ensuring production, production did not stop for one day.
Yongtai Energy sources also mentioned in an interview with reporters that coal production in the company's mines was normal before and after the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympics this year.
Since September 2021, the coal enterprises affiliated to the company will guarantee a monthly supply of 25,000 tons of washed and mixed coal to local power plants, and a monthly supply of 50,000 tons of washed and mixed coal to the company's subordinate power plants. In 2022, they will continue to implement relevant national supply guarantee policies .
In order to guarantee production, in 2021, Shanxi Province will list 98 coal mines whose production capacity is planned to be increased as guaranteed coal mines. Under the condition of ensuring safety in the fourth quarter, relevant coal mines can produce according to the production capacity after the planned increase in production capacity, and at the same time start the verification increase. For the formalities, Yongtai Energy's Jintaiyuan Coal Mine and Sendayuan Coal Mine are also included.
Supervision and supply guarantee have achieved remarkable results
The "extraordinary performance" of domestic coal enterprises' production is based on the background of global energy supply shortage since 2021.
Affected by global decarbonization, the transformation of the energy structure has accelerated, and the supply of traditional energy has been reduced. In the post-epidemic era, energy demand has grown steadily since 2021, which has led to a mismatch between traditional energy supply and demand, and prices have continued to rise.
Coal, as an important basic energy source, occupies an absolute weight in my country's primary energy consumption structure for a long time.
With the global energy shortage in 2021, domestic coal prices have also risen abnormally. The annual average price of thermal coal has reached 1,030 yuan/ton, a record high, and on October 20, 2021, a record high of 2,587.5 yuan/ton was refreshed. extremum.
In the face of high coal prices, many relevant state departments have introduced measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices.
After September 2021, the domestic coal market began to face policy-level regulation. Whether it was relaxing the procedures for applying for coal mines to increase production capacity or delaying the joint trial operation of coal mines, the relevant departments have effectively released some production capacity through various methods and alleviated the problem. In view of the shortage of domestic thermal coal supply earlier, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal both showed a short-term halving trend.
However, entering 2022, the global energy shortage will continue, the coal supply will be tight, and the news of high prices will continue to be heard.
On the last day of 2021, the Indonesian government suddenly announced that it will stop coal exports from January 1 to January 31, 2022 due to the expected shortage of coal supply from domestic power plants from January to February.
Global coal prices rose by more than a third in January, approaching a record high set in October 2021, with the benchmark Newcastle coal index rising to $262 a tonne, amid supply shortages and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Just after the Lunar New Year, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that coal prices generally rose in late January 2022 compared with mid-January.
Among them, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5000 kcal) increased by 13.3%, the price of Datong mixed coal (5800 kcal) increased by 11%, and the price of coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 1.6%.
"Entering 2022, especially around the Spring Festival, the thermal coal market has seen an upward price impulse again. The recent highest closing price at the port appeared around February 5, reaching 1,170 yuan/ton." Chen Shoujuan, an analyst at the business agency, told the Securities Times· The reporter of e company, the relevant state departments quickly started to reduce the price, and indeed achieved obvious results.
The currently monitored average closing price of the port is around 1030 yuan / ton, which has dropped from the previous high.
According to Yongtai Energy sources, in January 2022, domestic coal prices rose sharply again, breaking through the price limit, and continued to rise.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration held consecutive meetings after the Spring Festival, requiring coal production enterprises to resume normal production and supply as soon as possible, and strictly implement the national policy requirements of ensuring supply and price of coal. ; Conduct interviews with some companies that buy and sell coal at high prices and disrupt the market order.
From February 10, the pit price of some coal mines began to gradually decline, and it is expected that the expected target of the National Development and Reform Commission may be reached after the second half of February.
Downstream costs remain under pressure
Although the domestic coal price has dropped significantly from the high point in 2021 under the background of policy regulation, it is still relatively high compared to the same period in previous years, and the performance of coal enterprises is still impressive.
"When the coal market was bad in the past few years, who would want to come to our place. But the coal price has risen in the past two years, and the company's benefits have naturally improved, and more people have paid attention." During the interview, the coal mine staff talked about So, the past 2021 can be said to be the best year in the history of the coal industry. Even in third- and fourth-tier cities, it is easy for front-line employees to earn more than 200,000 yuan per year.
As the most profitable mining company under China Pingmei Shenma Group, Pingbao will achieve sales revenue of 2.53 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 31.45%, and indicators such as output and profit have also reached record highs.
In January this year, the company's raw coal output also reached 198,700 tons, and the total monthly profit reached 140 million yuan, achieving a "good start".
Coal prices are high, electricity costs are rising, and the power supply situation tends to be tense, which will undoubtedly have a cascading impact on downstream manufacturing production.
"The most important thing for thermal power companies is the cost of coal. Each kilowatt-hour of electricity is equivalent to 7,500 kcal of standard coal, which requires about 300 to 350 grams." A person from a listed company involved in power generation production told reporters that the current price of thermal coal is higher than before. In recent years, the average price of five or six hundred yuan per ton is still at a high level, and thermal power generation is still losing money.
After the range of electricity price is expanded, the current local price per kilowatt-hour of electricity is 0.45 yuan, but the company's power generation cost is still 0.48 yuan.
Yongtai Energy, which also owns coal and power business, has also felt the significant impact of the market.
"At present, the company's self-produced coal is mainly coking coal. Affected by the market conditions, the coal segment has performed well, which has greatly improved the company's performance. The company's power plants mainly use thermal coal for power generation. Power supply in some regions and periods." The above-mentioned Yongtai Energy source said that the power demand of Jiangsu and Henan provinces where the company's power plants are located has increased significantly.
However, the rise in coal prices has greatly increased the cost of the company's power sector, which has greatly exceeded the capacity of coal power companies, making it extremely difficult for coal power companies to operate.
The source also said that in the short term, coal for power generation of its power plants still mainly relies on external procurement.
Under the pressure of high coal price and power supply guarantee, the company has also made every effort to open up transportation and other links, supply some by-products of coal washing to Henan power plants, make up for the coal gap, overcome many difficulties and give all-round support to power plants, such as funds, and effectively complete the power The task of ensuring supply effectively guarantees social stability and the normal development of the local economy.
Also affected by the cost of coal, the cement market will see a record high price in 2021, but the industry's efficiency will decline year-on-year.
Chen Bolin, Deputy Secretary-General of China Cement Association and President of Digital Cement Network, pointed out that the abnormally high coal price has profoundly affected the cement industry.
Generally, the cost of coal accounts for about 40% of the total cost of cement, and the proportion will definitely be higher at present.
Problems such as the financial pressure on the downstream caused by large price increases have slowed down the downstream construction progress.
"Coal super crazy" is difficult to reproduce
"According to the spirit of the recent meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission, the coal pit price of 5,500 calories cannot exceed 700 yuan / ton, and the port closing price cannot exceed 900 yuan / ton. At present, there is still room for coal prices to go down." Chen Shoujuan said that the current port liquidation price The price is still above 1,000 yuan / ton, and it is difficult for downstream thermal power industries to make profits.
Under the suppression of the policy, there is an expectation of price reduction in the market, and the thermal coal price may no longer be able to see the skyrocketing market in 2021, and it will return to a reasonable space.
In the interview, the relevant person in charge of Pingmei Co., Ltd. also believed that under the general trend of steady growth, the domestic infrastructure will develop in 2022, the macroeconomic situation is still improving, and the downstream steel and power demand of coal is still expected to be strong.
However, the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has been implemented in place. In 2022, domestic coal prices will hardly experience the huge fluctuations in 2021, and the overall situation will be high and fluctuating.
Yongtai Energy sources believe that due to the country's coal price policy regulation after the Spring Festival, the current price of imported coal and domestic trade coal is upside down, and the linkage between international and domestic prices is decoupling.
But soaring global natural gas prices have prompted more users to turn to coal.
The continued deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine will have a negative impact on the global coal market, while the pressure on my country's coal price policy regulation will increase.
It is expected that the imported coal market will still be in short supply in 2022, and the price of imported coal may often appear inverted with the price of domestic trade coal.
Since the fourth quarter of 2021 and the implementation of a new "long-term mechanism for coal prices" in 2022, a series of measures to ensure coal supply and limit prices have been implemented to urge coal prices to return to rationality, indicating that the country has raised energy security to a new level. The firm determination to stabilize commodity prices has strong policy guiding significance for the future trend of coal prices.
In 2022, under the situation of increasing coal production and ensuring supply, the tension between supply and demand in the thermal coal market will ease compared with 2021.
In addition, the current coking coal inventory is generally at a low level, and the supply and demand are slightly less than expected or exceeding expectations, and prices may fluctuate greatly.
Due to the low inventory, it will take time to accumulate the inventory. In addition, the annual long-term benchmark price of thermal coal in 2022 will be significantly higher than that of the previous year. The focus of coking coal price may also be significantly higher than that in 2021, and the tension between Russia and Ukraine will also push up coking coal. price.
Although analysts generally believe that the domestic coal market will not reproduce abnormally high prices in 2022, they are still optimistic about the overall increase in the price center, which will drive the performance growth of coal industry companies.
"The tight coal supply in 2021 is a short-term supply-demand imbalance in the market under the dual-carbon policy, but with the continued supply guarantee policy in my country, the coal market has cooled down significantly. The logic of my country's coal price maintaining at a high level within a reasonable range will not change," said Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures and Finance Research Institute.
Zhou Tai, chief analyst of the energy industry of Minsheng Securities, also told a reporter from Securities Times · e company that coal prices will rise very fast in 2021, and the price changes of listed companies will be slower than the market price, especially in the stage of price surge in October. The price is raised as much as the market price, so the profit growth rate of listed companies is weaker than that of port prices.
It is expected that the fluctuation of port prices in 2022 will be weaker than that in 2021. At the same time, the benchmark price of the long-term association is expected to increase from 535 yuan / ton to 700 yuan / ton, and the coverage of the long-term association has also improved, which means that the profit center of listed companies is expected to rise. With the rise of the profit center and the enhancement of profit stability, the industry valuation is also expected to increase.