Zhongxin Finance, February 22 (Zuo Yukun) "In January 2022, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities weakened from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate generally fell." On February 21, the national statistics The statistics on the changes in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in January 2022 released by the bureau show that the property market has stopped falling.

Data map: A residential area under construction.

(Photo by drone) Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming

Housing prices fell month-on-month, the number of cities decreased

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities turned from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.6%, and second-hand housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month, the same increase as the previous month.

  In addition, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities changed from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%; the second-hand housing decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.2% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, and the decline was both 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month.

  "There is an important signal in the housing price index, that is, on the basis of the previous four consecutive months of decline, the data in January has stopped falling." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the current month-on-month decline is in a continuous narrowing trend, and the follow-up is completely It is possible to turn positive, that is, to get out of the range where house prices have continued to fall.

  It is worth noting that the National Bureau of Statistics has set a focus - "the number of cities with a month-on-month decline".

That is to say, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 39 and 55 cities saw a month-on-month decrease in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing, a decrease of 11 and 8 from the previous month, respectively.

  "The main reason is that the real estate policy is relatively loose, the credit supply has increased significantly, and some home buyers around the Spring Festival, which have led to the rapid decline in housing prices, have begun to enter the market after seeing cost-effective projects in the market." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate explained. say.

Data map: A commercial residential building in the city center.

Photo by Sun Rui

First-tier cities take the lead in stabilizing

  "In terms of cities, compared with the previous month, the prices of all tier cities were repaired, and the first-tier cities were repaired faster. In January, the average price of new houses in the first-tier cities stopped falling and turned up month-on-month, and the house prices in key provincial capital cities and third-tier cities stopped falling or the decline narrowed." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said.

  In January, the sales prices of new houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively month-on-month; as for the prices of second-hand houses, Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell respectively. 0.2% and 0.5%.

  "Beijing's new housing and second-hand housing are in the forefront of the growth rate. In the current situation of low industry prosperity, Beijing, as the capital city, took the lead in bottoming out." Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said.

  "The most stressed cities in the market are still third- and fourth-tier cities." Yan Yuejin said that with the adjustment of down payment policies in third- and fourth-tier cities, there is a possibility of a rebound in the future.

Data map: Citizens choose the type of commercial housing in the real estate sales department.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wei Liang

Credit Policy Improvement Helps "Little Spring"

  Regarding the reasons for the changes in the property market in January, Xu Xiaole believes that the marginal improvement of the financial and credit environment since the fourth quarter of last year has promoted the bottoming of market volume transactions, and the positive performance of volume has been transmitted to the price side, which has slowed down the pressure on housing prices.

  "The core reason for the apparent downturn in this round of the property market is the tightening of credit policies. Policy fundamentals have bottomed out, and various policies that are conducive to rigid demand and improve the real demand of home buyers, including RRR cuts, continue to emerge." Centaline Real Estate Research Statistics from the hospital show that since January 2022, the country's real estate control policies have been intensive, and nearly 40 cities have issued policies to stabilize the real estate market.

  Although the transaction activity decreased due to the impact of the epidemic in January, the housing credit environment continued to improve, and some cities such as Nanning, Zigong, and Fuzhou introduced policies to stabilize the housing market, such as lowering the down payment ratio of provident funds and providing housing subsidies, all of which led to an improvement in market expectations.

  The report believes that there is more room for the decline of mortgage interest rates in February, and the lending cycle is accelerated. It is expected that the credit environment will remain loose in the later period; loan support policies may be transmitted from provident funds to commercial loans, and policy adjustments will be transferred from low-energy cities to high-energy cities, which is conducive to substantial Reduce housing costs and release housing demand.

  Yan Yuejin believes that with the recovery of market transactions, the follow-up price will also have a positive performance, that is, it will not fall too fast.

In general, the transmission mechanism of "policy bottom - market bottom - enterprise bottom" is very clear, and the market fundamentals may further improve in the follow-up.

  "With the gradual easing of mortgage loans, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in March-April 2022." Zhang Dawei believes.