A cup of milk is not only a hot spot of social concern, but also a concern for the industry.
In 2021, my country's dairy economy will maintain a high level of operation, and the output of raw milk, the processing volume of dairy products and the consumption demand of dairy products will all increase.
However, the development of the dairy industry also faces obvious challenges: the rapid increase in feed costs has led to a decline in the income of breeding; the growth rate of domestic output lags behind the growth rate of demand, the import of dairy products has grown rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of milk has dropped significantly.
Industry experts judge that in 2022, consumer demand for dairy products will continue to grow rapidly, the price of raw milk will remain high, the income of dairy farming will increase, and the growth rate of dairy product imports will decline.
In order to promote the revitalization of the dairy industry, it is necessary to improve the dairy industry policy around the two aspects of moderate-scale family farming and the basic status of the farming end.
Rapid growth in consumption
Data show that in 2021, my country's per capita milk consumption will be 14.4 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%; the country's total dairy product output will reach 30.317 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.
Liu Changquan, director of the Industrial Economics Office of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Industrial Economics Office of the National Dairy Industry Technology System, said that under the influence of multiple factors such as the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the sharp drop in pork prices, the consumption demand for dairy products still achieved rapid growth. , and the largest increase in recent years, fully reflecting the trend of accelerating the transformation of the food consumption structure of urban and rural residents.
In the past year, thanks to the implementation of the revitalization of the dairy industry, the dairy economy has maintained a high performance.
Leading companies performed particularly well.
Yili Group is the largest dairy company in my country and ranks among the top five in the global dairy industry.
The performance report for the first three quarters of 2021 shows that Yili’s total operating income increased by 15.23% year-on-year, and its net profit increased by 31.82% year-on-year. The net profit in the first three quarters has exceeded that of the previous year.
In 2021, Ningxia Yili's operating income will exceed 10 billion yuan, and its output will exceed 1 million tons. The three indicators of actual production capacity, annual revenue and annual output will all rank first in the world's liquid milk monomer factories.
More and more funds are entering the dairy industry, especially in counties and towns.
Zhou Jianrong, deputy director of the Agriculture and Rural Office of Nanxun Town, Nanxun District, Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, said that with dairy product processing as a breakthrough, the project of Zhejiang Jiutou Niu Catering Management Co., Ltd. was successfully attracted to the town.
The project plans to invest 580 million yuan to build a dairy-themed agricultural complex that integrates leisure tourism, technical training, and popular science education.
Yang Xuehong, deputy director of the Agriculture and Rural Bureau of Luxi County, Jiangxi Province, said that the local community has absorbed more than 20 million yuan in social funds to build a peach base and a high-quality forage base that absorbs farming manure, forming a green development model for the dairy industry that combines planting and breeding.
At present, the county's dairy industry has an annual output value of 300 million yuan, integrating pasture planting, dairy cattle breeding, and dairy processing.
In 2021, my country's imports of infant formula milk powder will drop by 22.1% year-on-year, which is also the second consecutive year of decline.
Feihe is a leading company in infant formula milk powder and the epitome of the growth of domestic milk powder brands.
Chen Xiaodong, vice president of Feihe, said that in terms of research and development, Feihe and the Peking University School of Medicine established the Nutrition and Life Health Development Research Center to deepen nutrition research on the whole population.
They also cooperated with the China National Institute of Standardization and the dairy innovation team of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences to upgrade the standard system.
Improve industry efficiency
At present, my country's dairy industry is facing a complex situation.
From a domestic point of view, there are still problems of unbalanced and insufficient development. The production cost of raw fresh milk is too high, the market price of many dairy products is too high, the adaptation of dairy supply to demand needs to be improved, and the coordination of the industrial chain needs to be improved.
From an international perspective, due to constraints such as resource and environmental carrying capacity and carbon emission reduction pressures, whether it is dairy products or cattle imports, the future will face greater uncertainty.
"It is worth noting that the rise in feed prices has driven the rapid growth of production costs." Liu Changquan introduced that according to the monitoring data of the national dairy industry technology system, the unit production cost of raw milk in large-scale farms continued to decline from the second half of 2014 to the beginning of 2018, but in 2018 After the second half of the year, it turned to volatility and a small upward trend, and it has turned to a rapid rise since 2020.
From January to September 2021, production costs rose from 3.51 yuan/kg to 3.77 yuan/kg, reaching an all-time high.
The unit cost of raw milk dropped slightly after September, to 3.74 yuan in December.
According to the monitoring data of the main producing provinces by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average purchase price of raw milk in 2021 is 4.29 yuan/kg, which is 13.23% higher than that in 2020.
Although the price of raw milk remains high and slightly increased, the income of dairy farming will show a downward trend in 2021 due to faster growth in feed prices and production costs.
According to the farm data monitored by the National Dairy Industry Technology System, from January to March 2021, the gross profit of raw milk production dropped rapidly from 0.80 yuan/kg to 0.57 yuan/kg, and the gross profit margin dropped from 22.91% to 16.10%. It has declined slightly since then.
In 2021, my country's imports of various dairy products will increase by more than 18% year-on-year.
In terms of varieties, the import volume of yogurt and infant formula milk powder decreased significantly, and the import volume of other dairy products increased to varying degrees.
"Because demand will still maintain a rapid growth rate, and domestic output growth will lag behind demand growth, the import volume of dairy products will continue to increase in 2022, but the growth rate will decline." Liu Changquan analyzed, first of all, dairy products in the international market The price hike will ease the gap in the competitiveness of domestic and foreign dairy industries and restrain the excessive growth of imports to a certain extent.
Secondly, the growth of diversified, characteristic and fresh consumer demand is more conducive to stimulating domestic production.
"There are two important problems in the dairy industry that need to be solved by technological progress." Liu Changquan said, one is to improve competitiveness and stabilize the milk self-sufficiency rate.
Due to resource constraints, input costs such as feed and land for dairy farming in my country are higher than those in other dairy developed countries. Only by achieving higher production efficiency through technological progress can the competitiveness gap caused by resource factors be reversed.
The second is to meet the needs of the majority of consumers for dairy products that are affordable, nutritious and safe.
The main contradiction in the development of the dairy industry is the low per capita consumption level of dairy products and the large difference in consumption levels between different groups of people. The key to solving this problem is to reduce the cost and price of dairy products.
Policy guidance should be strengthened
Liu Changquan believes that policy guidance in two aspects should be strengthened.
The first is to strengthen the policy orientation of moderate-scale family farming.
Improve the targeting of family farms by various support policies of the dairy industry, and build the production system, industrial system and management system of the dairy industry around the development needs of moderate-scale family farming.
The second is to strengthen the policy orientation of the basic position of the breeding end in the dairy industry chain.
Strengthen the construction of the mechanism for linking interests in the industrial chain, so that the value-added income of the industry will benefit more dairy farmers and dairy farming.
To this end, it is necessary to improve the organization level of dairy farmers, improve the price formation mechanism of raw milk, and build a third-party inspection system.
Liu Yaqing, vice president and secretary general of the China Dairy Association, said that my country has a strong population resource advantage and huge potential for consumer demand.
The development of the dairy industry should rely on a strong domestic market, optimize the product structure, and improve the quality of supply.
It is necessary to consolidate and expand the original categories, but also strive to develop new categories, and plan to increase pasteurized milk, cheese, butter, whey powder, etc.
At the same time, China's dairy industry has a high degree of internationalization. It is necessary not only to actively apply international advanced experience, equipment and achievements to achieve high-quality "bringing in", but also to enhance internal strength and achieve high-level "going out".
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the supply capacity of milk sources will be further improved, the construction of high-quality milk source bases will be continuously strengthened, the yield per unit will be improved, the quality will be improved, and costs will be reduced, and efforts will be made to achieve the goal of 70% self-sufficiency rate.
We will further stabilize the connection of interests in breeding and processing, support dairy enterprises to expand the proportion of their own milk sources, encourage the extension of the industrial chain, and support major producing provinces to improve the price negotiation mechanism for raw milk.
Further improve the matching degree between supply and demand of dairy products, give full play to the advantages of domestic milk, accelerate the development of dry dairy products suitable for Chinese consumers, and encourage the development of special dairy products.
(Economic Daily reporter Qiao Jinliang)