It is unclear what role the prospect of tough sanctions will play in the Russian president's deliberations.

However, Vladimir Putin should be aware that at least some of the measures that are being discussed in the event of a new military operation against Ukraine would have serious consequences for Russia's economy - his government is at least dealing with the issue intensively.

Catherine Wagner

Business correspondent for Russia and the CIS based in Moscow.

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According to information from the business portal The Bell, the influential First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov recently met with representatives of important state-owned companies to discuss the consequences of possible new restrictions.

The Russian Post, the airline Aeroflot and the railway group RZD had previously carried out "stress tests" of the operation under sanction conditions.

Nothing is officially known about the results.

According to "The Bell", the company representatives speak behind closed doors of a "catastrophe".

Back to Fax and Telex

The economy is currently particularly nervous that Russian banks could be cut off from transactions in dollars.

An oil and gas embargo modeled on the Western approach against Iran would be even more serious for Russia, whose budget is fed by the sale of these two energy sources to around a third.

But because such a measure would also have serious consequences for the dependent major customer Europe and global energy prices, it is considered extremely unlikely.

Other sanctions under discussion, such as new restrictions on oligarchs close to the Kremlin or an end to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, would have little immediate impact on the economy - Russia could bring its gas to Europe via other pipelines as before.

And new measures against Russian government bonds are likely to frighten the remaining foreigners, who still hold around 20 percent of the paper.

However, as before, their own banks could step in for them.

A ban on the dollar, on the other hand, worries many, even more so than a discussed exclusion of Russia from the international payment system SWIFT.

According to experts, the latter would lead to higher costs for all those involved, who would have to resort to communication channels such as fax or telex, but is considered "feasible" and not as serious as a dollar ban.

Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2014, Russia has been trying to “de-dollarize” its economy;

the dollar share of the central bank's financial reserves, for example, was only 16.4 percent in the middle of last year.

But 55 percent of Russian exports are still processed in dollars and 29 percent in euros.

All international non-cash dollar transactions are conducted through a correspondent account in the United States,

The rector of the private business university "Russian Economic School", Ruben Enikolopov, describes a dollar ban as a "very painful blow" for the Russian economy, but also for Europe, which would then have to pay for its gas imports in euros, for example.

Since the dollar is still by far the most important and most liquid transaction currency, many transactions can only be settled in dollars.

In theory, Russian banks could first exchange rubles for euros and then euros for dollars, Enikolopov said, but doing so would increase costs significantly.

In addition, it could be that European and other banks would also avoid the blocked Russian institutes.

The Rossiya and SMP banks, which ended up on American sanctions lists in 2014 because of their leadership close to the Kremlin, are already banned from carrying out cashless transactions in dollars.

SMP Bank now only accepts dollar deposits in cash.

In theory, the United States could cut off not only banks, but all state structures from the dollar, as in Venezuela in 2019.

The South American country then had problems servicing its debt and had to pay interest on Russian government loans in rubles instead of dollars.