The life of an analyst is actually a very simple one.

All it takes is a dice and the will to use it.

In a market that's up half the time and down half the time, you're going to get a 50 percent hit rate;

sometimes a good start.

But it gets even better: You also leave out the dice and always forecast rising prices.

If you take the federal bonds with a term of ten years, but also the Dax in the past decades, you would have achieved a pretty good hit rate of around 65 percent: both were, measured against their respective 200-day line, in almost two-thirds of the time in an uptrend.

With this unrestrained optimism, freed from all doubts and knowing no bounds, one avoids a real difficulty at the same time: "falling" forecasts.

That may read strangely: What is wrong with forecasts that expect falling prices?

After all, a correct or incorrect “up” forecast should be given just as much or as little credit as a correct or incorrect “fall” forecast.

But that's not true: For an analyst, there's nothing worse than a forecast that mistakenly expects prices to fall.

In this case, you weren't just the grouch and, as I've been told on the open stage, "prevented investors from making money".

This has also been done for no reason.

Another difficulty is often associated with "fall" forecasts: bear markets are often based on crises - and they can have a powerful impact on all of our lives.

A false "rising" forecast is a rather venial sin in comparison.

I don't really want to judge that: If the world is already ending, it should be easier to bear when you're in a good mood.

Bund Future falls again

I have always resisted anything that might be taken as advice from the introductory paragraphs.

This should have been particularly noticeable in the past few months, when I more or less announced the imminent end of the party to Dax, MSCI World & Co., but also to the bond markets.

When the evidence of falling charts piles up, I can't pretend like everything is fine.

But when in doubt, I have to live with a false "fall" prognosis.

This article is dedicated to a chart that was in far better shape: that of the Bund futures.

This futures contract traded on the Eurex roughly traces the price development of the 10-year German government bond.

To put it very simply, market participants who buy it put a virtual federal bond in their portfolio with a remaining term of 10 years and a coupon of 6 percent.

If yields rise in this maturity range, its price falls.

If they fall, he rises.

In the past few weeks in particular, yields have risen sharply – a little self-praise: as expected – and are now trading above the zero line again.

The Bund futures fell accordingly.

But that might not have been all.

With this slide, the futures market contract has also completed a fascinating top formation.

For two and a half years he was undecided, including short breaks, wobbling back and forth between 168 and 176 points.

On Thursday last week, shortly after the ECB commented on the state of inflation, it fell back below the lower limit of this previous trading range.

No more financial torture

There is rarely a clearer signal: My scope for interpretation is extremely limited.

I don't hold anything in my hands that would currently support sustained increases in bond prices.

I must necessarily expect further discounts of maybe even 10 points to the area of ​​the next viable support zone between 155 and 158 points in the coming months.

Conversely, yields on 10-year Bunds should continue to rise and at least come close to the 1 percent mark in the coming months.

However, the bond markets are somewhat "oversold" in the near term and are therefore likely to slow things down a bit for now.

A consolation that is not so small: Rising interest rates or yields are certainly not an ideal environment for the Dax.

For savers, insurance companies and so on, on the other hand, they are blessings and salvation.

The days of penalty interest are coming to an end.

The financial torture is over.

Incidentally, there are no more cubes in my office.

I switched to crystal balls a long time ago.