Sino-Singapore Jingwei, February 17 (Dong Wenbo) At 24:00 on February 17, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened.
This will be the first adjustment after the holiday. The comprehensive agency predicts that this increase has been "surely done". With the addition of the last increase at the end of 2021, domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise for four consecutive years.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
During this round of pricing cycle (starting from January 30), the international oil price remained high during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, affected by the tension between Russia and Ukraine, it continued to refresh the high level in more than seven years, approaching US$100 strongly.
Tan Yaling, an independent economist of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute and a special expert of the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, pointed out that from the current point of view, the lack of oil supply is the main background to stimulate the price increase.
On the one hand, the United States, as the main force of oil supply, has a significant impact on the supply of the oil market due to its subjective planning intentions and the reality that the epidemic has hindered production; become a fact that is difficult to change in the short term.
As the tension between Russia and Ukraine eased, the rise of international oil prices slowed down in the latter part of the pricing cycle. At the close of trading on February 15, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.39 to close at 92.07 US dollar / barrel, down 3.55%; London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell 3.20 US dollars to close at 93.28 US dollars / barrel, down 3.32%.
According to the analysis of Zhongyu Information, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil this week, the upward expectations of the retail end of refined oil products continue to expand. As of the 9th working day of the Japanese round on February 16, the crude oil price was estimated at US$91.74/barrel, which was +3.228/barrel from the benchmark price. barrel, the crude oil change rate is +3.65%, corresponding to a change of 190 yuan / ton.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the 8th working day of February 15, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$91.45/barrel, with a change rate of 4.13%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 195 yuan/ton.
Jinlianchuang further pointed out that the current domestic retail price of 92# gasoline is mostly 7.6-7.7 yuan/liter. After the increase is expected to be implemented, the retail price of 92# will be 7.8-7.9 yuan/liter, and some areas will be close to 8 yuan/liter.
For end-users, according to the calculation of a small car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will cost about 9 yuan more to fill a tank of fuel.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei's carding, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been raised twice, plus the increase on December 31, 2021, showing a "three consecutive rises" trend.
After the implementation of this round of price adjustments, domestic refined oil prices are expected to achieve "four consecutive increases".
In the domestic wholesale market, Ma Jiancai, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, pointed out that the gasoline and diesel prices are on the rise, but the downstream supply is basically in place after the holiday. The shipment is limited for a limited time, and the sales volume is limited. The downstream receiving goods are cautious, and the transactions are mostly just for small orders.
Regarding the market outlook, Ma Jiancai believes that the current domestic oil price trend is still strong under the support of the upward expectation, and the oil price trend in some areas may still rise slightly, but with the downstream resistance to high oil prices, it is expected that domestic oil prices will continue to rise. High-level finishing is the main.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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