Our reporter Wang Lixin
The transcript of the "final annual exam" will be announced soon. Judging from the currently released "estimated score", in 2021, the loss of the A-share real estate sector will likely set a historical record.
Wind information data shows that as of February 14, according to the Shenyin Wanguo real estate industry classification, 62 of the 126 listed companies in the A-share real estate sector have released 2021 performance forecasts, of which over 60% of the net profit has declined, 28 Among the pre-loss enterprises, 11 lost more than 1 billion yuan.
"Multiple factors, such as price reduction and sale in order to speed up sales collection, provision for asset impairment, rising financial costs, and failure of delivery projects to be carried forward as planned are important reasons for the decline in profits and even losses of real estate-related companies." RAND Consulting President Song Yanqing told the "Securities Daily" reporter that there are still uncertainties in the recovery of the sales market in the second half of the year, and it will take longer for the profitability of real estate companies to recover.
Losses of some housing companies widen
Wind information data shows that the total loss of the above-mentioned 28 pre-loss real estate-related companies last year is expected to be 79.1 billion to 95 billion yuan, which is an unimaginable scale for the A-share real estate sector in the past.
Ranked first in the loss is China Fortune Land Development.
On the evening of January 28, China Fortune Land Development announced that it expects a loss of 33.1 billion to 39.1 billion yuan in 2021.
The company made a profit of 3.665 billion yuan in the same period in 2020.
In this regard, China Fortune Land Development stated that since the fourth quarter of 2020, the company's liquidity has experienced phased tensions, financial debts have not been repaid on schedule, and the financing business has almost stagnated, which has had a serious impact on the company's operations, resulting in a substantial decline in the company's performance.
Another real estate company with a loss of more than 10 billion yuan is Blu-ray Development. Its announcement stated that it is expected to achieve a net profit of -12.037 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021.
The main reason is that the debt is overdue and the funds are tight, which has affected the construction progress of the projects planned to be delivered this year to varying degrees.
There are also some real estate enterprises' losses due to operating losses and provision for asset impairment.
A real estate company in central China is expected to accrue 2 billion to 3 billion yuan for asset impairment. At the same time, affected by the overall downturn in the real estate market, along with the company's transformation process, the real estate project will be liquidated, transferred and withdrawn as soon as possible. value.
Not only real estate companies, but also the downstream service listed companies in the real estate industry chain are also facing the pressure of loss.
The World Union Bank announced on January 28 that it is expected that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be a loss of 850 million yuan to 1.25 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 110 million yuan in the same period last year.
The World Union Bank said that during the reporting period, due to the provision for impairment of some projects receivable by real estate enterprises, it had a significant impact on performance. Among them, a major customer had difficulty in capital turnover, and commercial acceptance bills were overdue.
As of December 31, 2021, the balance of accounts receivable of the World Union Bank from this customer was approximately 1.266 billion yuan, of which approximately 811 million yuan was accounts receivable (including overdue and unpaid commercial acceptance bills transferred to accounts receivable approximately 311 million yuan), other receivables of about 35 million yuan, and outstanding commercial acceptance bills of about 420 million yuan.
Although the company has been actively negotiating with it to seek solutions, according to the current actual situation, the World Union Bank has conducted an analysis and evaluation on the recoverability of the accounts receivable, and believes that there are obvious signs of impairment.
At the same time, 100 million yuan of other non-current financial assets held through investment were provided for asset impairment.
In addition, the World Union Bank believes that it will face the risk that accounts receivable, notes receivable and other receivables cannot be recovered in a timely manner.
For such receivables for which there is objective evidence that credit impairment has occurred, the World Union Bank has made provision for bad debts and confirmed expected credit losses on an individual basis.
According to Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, the main reasons for the loss of real estate-related companies in 2021 are the following. First, due to the impact of the downward pressure on the market in the second half of 2021, real estate sales are lower than expected. At the same time, in order to speed up sales and capital return As a result, real estate companies often reduce prices, resulting in a decline in the gross profit of real estate sales, and the net realizable value is lower than the cost, resulting in losses. Second, due to overdue debt and tight funds, the project delivery process is hindered, and the delivery and Third, the increase in the financial cost of some enterprises has also increased the loss margin to a certain extent; fourth, the corresponding inventory depreciation reserves are made based on the principle of prudence.
Difficult to deal with multiple pressures
It is not difficult to see that the reasons for the expansion of losses are various, but the current situation of cold sales market, financing difficulties, and tight capital chain has not been completely improved. Under multiple pressures, the A-share real estate sector still faces many difficulties.
"In the second half of 2021, the market will be sluggish, and real estate companies will enter the winter." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that especially for real estate companies whose investment layout is concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities, price cuts will obviously affect profits. Large area The "price-for-volume" promotion has further expanded the losses, and the market downturn is still ongoing.
According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, in January 2022, the sales of TOP100 real estate companies decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, of which the number of real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan decreased by 14 compared with the same period last year, and the number of real estate companies exceeding 5 billion yuan decreased by 31 compared with the same period last year.
In Song Yanqing's view, in 2022, the scale of due debts of real estate enterprises will be high, and the market pattern of financing difficulties, cash backflow from sales, and asset transfer has not changed. To be picked up.
In this regard, Liu Shui, head of research at the Enterprise Division of the China Index Research Institute, believes that since the second half of 2021, real estate sales have fallen sharply. Although the policy has improved marginally, the market has not yet recovered significantly and is still undergoing deep adjustment.
Perhaps, after the second quarter of this year, real estate sales will gradually pick up.
As for the next layout of housing companies, Liu Shui further said that different types of housing companies will implement different development strategies this year.
For example, strong central SOEs and private enterprises with stable operations will still actively acquire high-quality land plots to prepare reserves for subsequent development.
Companies with high leverage and liquidity difficulties will basically stop acquiring land to save expenses and ensure cash flow.
This year, the pressure on housing enterprises will be greater in the first half of the year and will improve in the second half of the year.
In the first half of the year, the improvement in market sales and financing was limited, and the pressure on housing enterprises was still relatively high.
In the second half of the year, with the implementation of local policies and the recovery of the market, the pressure on housing enterprises will obviously improve.
(Securities Daily)