Securities Times reporter Sun Xianchao

　　After the Spring Festival, cement prices in some parts of the country ushered in rising news.

According to the China Cement Network Market Center, after the price of clinker along the Yangtze River in Anhui rose by 30 yuan / ton on February 7, on February 11, the price of clinker in eastern Guangdong increased by 30 yuan / ton, and many companies have issued price adjustment letters; A number of cement companies in Yunnan have notified that the price of various types of cement will be raised by 50 yuan/ton from February 11.

　　It is worth mentioning that the cement index has been able to outperform the broader market in the first quarter of most previous years.

With the recent increase in cement prices in some regions, can the anticipated "spring turmoil" in the cement sector come as promised?

Some market analysts said that the performance of the secondary market of the cement sector is inseparable from the fundamentals of the industry, and whether there will be "spring restlessness" in the cement sector will depend more on the performance of the cement industry's demand side.

　　"The social financing data in January exceeded expectations, which may become a catalyst for the cement sector to open an upward channel in 2022." said Wang Tao, co-chief of building materials at Tianfeng Securities, if data such as the project operating rate gradually improves, it will further play a catalytic role. .

　　Overall stable and part of the rise

　　After the Spring Festival this year, there was news that cement prices rose in some areas.

Judging from the price adjustment letters issued by some cement companies recently, the rise in coal prices may be an important reason for cement companies in some regions to raise prices recently.

　　For example, some companies stated in the price adjustment notice that "the company's production costs have risen sharply due to factors such as the rise in upstream raw materials, dual control of national energy consumption, and off-peak production", "according to the current changes in the cement market, the prices of raw materials continue to rise. Various factors such as environmental protection, energy saving and emission reduction have led to the continuous increase of the company's cement production and manufacturing costs."

　　On February 8, the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in late January 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that coal prices generally rose.

Among them, the ordinary big mix (5000 kcal) was 803.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton or 14.5% over the price of the previous issue; the Shanxi big mix (5000 kcal) was 945 yuan/ton, an increase of 111.2 yuan over the previous price / ton, an increase of 13.3%; Shanxi excellent mixed (5500 kcal) was 1043.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 105.2 yuan / ton over the previous price, an increase of 11.2%; Datong mixed coal (5800 kcal) was 1120 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous issue, the price increased by 110.6 yuan / ton, or 11%.

　　In the futures market, the main thermal coal contract has fluctuated upwards from 672 yuan at the end of December 2021, and once rose to 898.6 yuan on February 9.

　　On February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly convened a meeting to deploy and continue to stabilize the coal market price. They also reminded some companies whose coal prices were found to be inflated by monitoring, and asked for immediate inspection and rectification.

Recently, coal prices have fallen.

On February 14, the main contract price of thermal coal has dropped to between 830 yuan and 840 yuan.

　　It is worth mentioning that, except for the above-mentioned regions, the cement price trend in most regions is still relatively stable.

For example, after the Spring Festival, most construction sites and mixing plants in central and southern China have not yet started construction, and the recovery of market demand is relatively slow.

This week, except for the cement price in western Guangdong, which fell by 30 yuan/ton, other markets did not change significantly compared with those before the holiday.

In addition, after the Spring Festival holiday, most enterprises in the northern region are still in the stage of staggered production, and due to the impact of low temperature weather, the market has not yet started, the resumption of work on the construction site is basically after March, and the price of cement is stable in the off-season.

　　Li Kunming, an analyst at China Cement.com, said that although cement prices have risen in some areas, because the overall demand for the cement industry has not come up and the supply is relatively stable, the current price of the cement industry can be summarized as "the overall stable and partial increase".

　　overall price center

　　expected to raise

　　With the introduction of policies, the upward pressure on upstream raw materials has undoubtedly eased.

How will the future trend of cement prices be interpreted?

　　Li Kunming analyzed that the current supply side of the cement industry is relatively stable.

It is now widely speculated in the market that the supply guarantee policy may be launched at the end of February or early March, and the coal price will be in a relatively reasonable operating range by then, and the cost disturbance factors of the industry will gradually withdraw.

　　According to reports, under normal circumstances, the peak season of the cement industry will start from early March to mid-March, and the peak season will generally last from two months to mid-to-late May. Now the cement industry is in the process of changing from a low season to a peak season.

In the process, once demand kicks in, cement prices will naturally also rise.

　　In Li Kunming's view, this year's cement price trend will be different from last year's ups and downs.

There were many factors that disturbed the cement industry last year, especially in September last year, due to the dual control of energy consumption and power curtailment and production curtailment, the periodic imbalance between supply and demand was relatively obvious.

But judging from the situation this year, since the beginning of the year, the relevant state departments have begun to intervene in the coal price, and it is not allowed to show ups and downs like last year.

Therefore, from the cost side, the impact of coal price trends on cement prices will gradually recede.

　　In addition, the real estate market last year was relatively good, but from this year, the decline in real estate will be a trend with high probability.

The only uncertainty in the market now is how much infrastructure development will be developed this year. After all, economic growth this year is still under certain pressure.

　　"We judge that the price of cement will be relatively stable this year, and it is expected to return to the same level as before 2019." Li Kunming said that in general, there will be two rounds of peak season increases from March to May and from October to December, and from June to August The month is the seasonal low season.

Considering that the price center of the cement industry has risen last year, the price at the beginning of this year is higher than last year due to the tail-raising factor. It is expected that the cement price center will also rise compared with last year.

　　Li Kunming also pointed out that although cement demand may decline this year, for the price of a commodity, sometimes the reason for affecting the price is not just the relationship between supply and demand.

A phased mismatch between supply and demand may also push prices up.

In addition, because cement currently does not have futures, the current operation of cement spot will not be adjusted with the sharp fluctuation of its futures price, which will lead to its relatively stable price.

　　There is still room for performance in the market outlook

　　The cement index has been able to outperform the broader market in the first quarter of most previous years.

After the Spring Festival, the cumulative increase of the cement and building materials index exceeded 8%, which has been significantly ahead of the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen large-cap stock indexes.

So, can the "spring agitation" in the cement sector come as promised?

　　The latest research report of Guohai Securities stated that since January, the policy has been intensively spoken, emphasizing that "infrastructure investment is moderately ahead", and funds such as local government special bonds have gradually been put in place, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022 will be more flexible.

In addition, the policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction continues to advance, and the "Implementation Guide for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation and Upgrading in the Cement Industry" clearly requires that by 2025, the proportion of clinker production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the cement industry will reach 30%, and the clinker production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will be basically Cleared, the industry's energy saving and carbon reduction effect is remarkable, and the green and low-carbon development capacity has been greatly enhanced.

　　Guohai Securities Research Report pointed out that in the first week after the Spring Festival, the domestic cement market demand was affected by off-season factors and continuous rain and snow weather. The market demand has not yet started, and there is only a small demand for bag equipment. Most cement companies implement off-peak production and shutdown for maintenance.

It is expected that after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, as construction projects and batching plants resume work one after another, the demand for cement will gradually start.

　　For the cement industry, the fifteenth day of the first lunar month is an important time node.

Wang Tao also said that from the experience of the past years, from the fifteenth to the beginning of June of the first month of each year, it is usually the peak season for cement in the first half of the year.

At this stage, the demand in the cement market has not officially started, and most cement companies are implementing off-peak production and production shutdowns for maintenance.

　　According to Wang Tao, in the past 10 years, the start-up time of the cement sector was mostly before the Spring Festival.

Judging from the market performance after New Year's Day in 2022, there is no obvious sustained rebound in the cement sector.

The reason is mainly because the current cement demand has entered a downward period, and the uncertainty on the demand side has increased significantly.

　　It should be pointed out that in the peak season of cement sales in the first half of the past 10 years, the overall increase in the cement sector in 2021 is the lowest.

From the perspective of the situation from 2022 to the present, although the cement sector has also performed, the overall performance is still not as good as in 2021, so it is expected that there will still be room for performance in the market outlook.