Securities Times reporter Mao Kexin

  The stock price of CATL (300750) was under pressure to sell, and the company issued a statement to clarify market rumors.

  Ningde era reported the case against rumors

  On February 13, CATL issued a statement on its official account, saying that a series of malicious rumors about CATL being sanctioned by the United States, being removed from the GEM weight index, and talks with Tesla have recently appeared on online platforms, causing market misunderstandings. , affecting the reputation of the company.

Rumors are unfounded, baseless, and vile.

In order to protect the legitimate rights and interests of the company, on February 12, the company has officially reported the case to the public security organ, and will investigate the legal responsibility of the rumor makers according to law.

  The stock price of Ningde Times has fallen continuously since the beginning of the lunar new year. It has now fallen below the 500 yuan mark. The cumulative decline in the first week of the new year is more than 17%. Among them, the largest decline was 6.66% in a single day on February 8. The latest closing price is 489.99 yuan per share. The total market value is 1.14 trillion yuan, which is about 240 billion yuan evaporated compared with the previous year.

Affected by this, the ChiNext Index also fell by 5.59% in 5 trading days.

  From a long-term perspective, CATL hit a historically high price of 692 yuan per share in December last year, but the stock price has been weak since then, and now the stock price has dropped 28.78% from the highest price.

The entire industry is also experiencing a correction. The Wind Ningde era industrial chain index has fallen by 17.28% since January, and the lithium battery index has fallen by 14.85%.

  The recent performance of Ningde Times is related to several rumors. Recently, there was a news on the Internet that "Ningde Times is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States"; another source said that the products managed by the fund manager of China-Europe Fund, Ge Lan It was redeemed in a large amount of 40 billion yuan, mainly selling new energy and wind cursors.

However, the above rumors were refuted by CATL and China Europe Fund respectively.

  The sensitivity of the market comes from deeper concerns. Can CATL continue to maintain its market share?

Can the current high valuation be fully digested?

After the successive declines in recent days, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of CATL is still at a high of 114.5 times, and many institutions have previously raised the target stock price to more than 900 yuan.

  Share price movements Market views are divided

  At present, the Ningde era is still the absolute leader in the market.

According to data released by SNE Research, a South Korean market research institution, CATL’s global installed capacity in the power battery field reached 96.7GWh last year, with a market share of 32.6%, ranking first in the world. This is the fifth consecutive year CATL has entered the world. The throne of the largest power battery enterprise.

  The annual performance of CATL also exceeded the general expectations of previous institutions. On the evening of January 27, the company released a performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 14 billion to 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.75% to 195.52%; 181%~228%.

  However, the Ningde era is not without its opponents.

Followed by BYD, it has successively established a series of "Fudi battery" subsidiaries, and has plans to go public independently. Self-developed blade batteries are also promoting the process of external supply. The market expects that BYD is likely to become Tesla's supply in the future. business.

China Innovation Aviation (formerly known as China Aviation Lithium Battery), which has not yet been listed, ranks third in domestic installed capacity, with an installed capacity of 9.05GWh in 2021.

Although there is still a certain gap with the Ningde era, China Innovation Aviation has proposed a production capacity plan of 500GWh in 2025, and has also separated a part of GAC Aeon's customer orders from the Ningde era.

In addition, second-tier battery factories such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Honeycomb Energy are also struggling to catch up.

  The pressure not only comes from power battery manufacturers in the same industry, but also downstream car companies are quite afraid of the power of the Ningde era.

A number of industry insiders once told the reporter of Securities Times e company that in the supply chain system of the automotive industry, it is very rare for a company like CATL to dominate. Idea manages to take it into its own hands, which will form a round of power competition between suppliers and OEMs.

  In fact, against the backdrop of rising raw material prices and high-end power battery capacity last year, a number of car companies have added "secondary supply" and "third supply" to check and balance the power of suppliers, and some car companies have gone on their own research. Self-produced batteries, many of which are global car giants such as Tesla and Volkswagen.

  For the next share price trend, the current market views are divided.

Capital Securities has attracted attention for being bearish on the Ningde era. Capital Securities believes that the crowded track stocks have formed a situation of more kills and more kills, and compared the high point of Kweichow Moutai in 2021 with the high point of the Ningde era in 2022, to The trend of Kweichow Moutai infers the future trend of CATL.

Judging from the fitting situation, the overall adjustment of the Ningde era has not ended, and there may still be room for a 20% decline in the future.

There may be a rebound in the process of adjustment, so it is recommended to sell on rallies.

  On the contrary, UBS released a research report saying that CATL has ushered in a buying opportunity with a target price of 700 yuan.

In terms of performance, UBS believes that CATL's 2021 financial report is 30% to 40% higher than the consensus estimate, and there is still a lot of room for growth in 2022.

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