The worsening of the Ukraine crisis is driving the already high energy prices even higher.

On Monday, the price of North Sea oil Brent temporarily reached $96.16 per barrel (159 liter barrel), its highest level in seven and a half years.

Later there was a counter-movement.

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in Business.

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“Worries about worries” is the title of Commerzbank's commodity analysts in their daily market report.

Consumers in Germany also felt the price increase again: At the filling stations, fuel prices even rose to new historic highs.

According to the Clever Tanken internet portal, a liter of Super E10 recently cost an average of 1.748 euros per liter.

Diesel rose to 1.665 euros per liter.

After all, the price of heating oil reached a new ten-year high: 100 liters cost 95.98 euros for the purchase of 3000 liters, as reported by the Internet portal Heizoel24, to which 500 oil dealers report their prices.

When will the price of oil cross $100?

Analysts believe that there are realistic reasons behind the rise in oil prices, not just panic: "In the current environment, $100 a barrel is quite realistic in the short term," said Gabor Vogel, oil specialist at DZ Bank.

If the conflict escalated, $120 would also be possible.

After all, Russia is the third largest oil producer in the world.

"A complete failure would have a very significant impact on the price," said Vogel.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Canada could continue to increase oil production in response, but not on the scale and not as quickly as would be necessary to offset Russian supplies.

"If there are troop movements, the Brent price will easily jump above the $100 mark," said Oanda analyst Edward Moya.

The investment bank Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast for the oil price and now considers $105 a possibility.

In addition to the geopolitical tensions, it is also the supply and demand relationship that is making oil so expensive at the moment.

In many countries around the world, the economy is picking up again almost synchronously after the pandemic, and oil demand is recovering accordingly.

At the same time, the oil countries are rather cautious when it comes to their oil production.

In addition, disruptions to the supply chains and production in some countries are also affecting the supply of oil.

Oil prices have exceeded $100 before.

Between 2011 and 2014, for example, oil cost up to $120 a barrel.

However, the dollar was weaker against the euro at the time.

That's one reason why gasoline prices are now at historic highs, even though crude oil prices aren't even close to record yet.

Another reason is that the CO2 price on fuel has made gasoline more expensive in two stages, once in early 2021 and now again in early 2022. Compared to the increase in the price of crude oil, however, this is the factor with the fewer consequences so far.

Natural gas also continued to rise in price on Monday, with the European natural gas futures contract rising by up to 13 percent to EUR 84.20 per megawatt hour.

Palladium price reacts strikingly strong

The price of gold had already risen significantly on Friday, to a three-month high of $1865 and was only around below on Monday.

"If the Ukraine crisis worsens further, I think further increases in gold are likely," said Frank Schallenberger, commodity specialist at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg.

"However, there is currently a very large stress factor for the precious metal with the recent rise in interest rates."

Palladium, which is used in the auto industry, also rose significantly on Monday to up to $2,400 a troy ounce (31.1 grams).

About half of the world market supply of this metal comes from Russia, the other half from South Africa - that's why the price reacts very strongly to all the news from the Ukraine crisis.

The precious metals group Heraeus believes that if palladium were to be subject to import restrictions from Russia, this would have serious consequences for the palladium market.

In the case of gold, imports from Russia play a less important role.

According to the Heraeus experts, the decisive factor for the gold price is whether investors flee to the precious metal: "The price of gold also reacts to geopolitical developments." At the time when Crimea was annexed in March 2014, for example, the gold price had reached an annual high.

After the attacks of September 11, 2008, gold almost doubled in value within around two years.

"The Ukraine crisis will continue to cause volatility on the markets, and gold should remain in demand in this environment," said Heraeus gold dealer Alexander Zumpfe.