Securities Times reporter Wei Shuguang

　　In the face of "menacing" global monetary policy tightening expectations, commodities are somewhat "not afraid of newcomers".

In January, the international commodity CRB index rose 46% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since comparable data became available in 1995.

Of the 22 major commodities, 9 saw price increases of more than 50%, among which coffee, cotton and aluminum prices rose by 91%, 58% and 53% respectively.

　　When the international negative oil price was born on April 21, 2020, no one thought that today, two years later, the oil price could stand at US$94/barrel.

Commodity "super cycle" coming?

This question itself, I am afraid, is an affirmative answer to the rise in commodity prices.

　　"Inflation is just a monetary phenomenon," Friedman said, a phrase that seems more appropriate in commodities.

In the past 22 months, governments in Europe and the United States have introduced about $11 trillion in fiscal and monetary spending measures, and another about $6 trillion in liquidity support.

As a result of the massive over-issuance of global currencies, the real purchasing power of currencies has fallen sharply.

　　Taking the US dollar as an example, a study showed that if the purchasing power of the US dollar in January 2000 was used as a benchmark (100), the purchasing power of the US dollar has now dropped to 60.10, a drop of nearly 40%.

If calculated according to the actual purchasing power, the average oil price in 2011 is about 90 US dollars / barrel, after adjustment, it should be 149 US dollars / barrel now.

　　"All commodity markets are in a state of shortage right now." Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group, pointed out that in his 30-year career, he has never seen such a tense situation as now, and demand is far greater than anyone imagined. are strong.

　　All of this happened when the global epidemic was repeated and the production activities of the world's major economies still failed to return to pre-epidemic levels.

In fact, at the supply level, the global resources industry has been under-invested for years, with both reducing capital expenditures and increasing shareholder dividends due to social responsibility (ESG) concerns.

Combined with the current global geopolitical tensions and the environment of global green transformation, the future of the commodity market is subject to huge uncertainty.

　　Under the "supply shock" brought about by the supply bottleneck, commodity prices continued to soar, and the market is highly concerned about whether the United States is entering a "wage-inflation spiral".

However, inflation remains high, and advanced economies represented by the United States have begun to gradually tighten their monetary policies. The commodity market should also be wary of the "interest rate shock" brought about by the tightening expectations of the US and European central banks.

The volatility of commodity markets this year is likely to be stronger than last year.

　　As the world's largest importer of raw materials and exporter of finished products, China is particularly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices.

Driven by the huge fluctuations in the market, the transaction volume of the domestic futures market in 2021 will increase by 32.97% year-on-year.

Among the more than 4,600 A-share listed companies, more than 900 participate in futures hedging, reflecting the strong demand of many industrial enterprises and various hedging institutions to use futures options to manage spot price risks.

As more and more companies participate in the futures market to hedge the risk of sharp price fluctuations, domestic companies are expected to further stabilize and grow.