The track where new energy, medicine and other funds gather together has been continuously adjusted recently.

Especially in the first trading week of the Year of the Tiger, the GEM performed poorly, and the fund's heavy-holding stocks fell in turn.

"What's wrong with the market? What's wrong with the fund?" has become a soul-searching question from many investors.

  At the beginning of the year, the fund managers who shouted "Today's new energy will not become last year's liquor" quickly disappeared, and the main line of "steady growth" with low valuations gradually became a consensus among institutional people.

  From the continuous adjustment of stocks in liquor, consumption and other sectors after the Spring Festival last year, to concept stocks such as new energy and medicine before and after the Spring Festival this year, the “roulette” of institutional investment represented by funds is spinning rapidly, but it repeats itself. A similar scenario plays out.

The risks are obvious, why are fund managers "biased towards Tiger Mountain"?

  Multiple factors lead to continuous adjustment of the track

  Since the beginning of this year, the market performance of new energy, semiconductor and other tracks that performed outstandingly last year has turned down.

In the Shenwan secondary industry index, medical services have fallen by 27.63% this year, photovoltaic equipment has fallen by 22.11%, semiconductors have fallen by 18.11%, and batteries have fallen by 17.77%.

At the same time, funds that hold heavy positions in these tracks have been hit hard.

  At the beginning of the year, the fund manager who was still shouting "Today's new energy will not become last year's liquor" couldn't help but ask his soul: How long will the adjustment last?

  Institutional sources believe that high valuation is the primary reason for this round of continuous adjustment of the track.

A public fund manager bluntly stated that as the Fed tightening expectations heat up, investors' risk appetite has declined, and their tolerance for high-value track valuations has declined, resulting in the loosening of the group.

Zhou Ning (pseudonym), a fund manager of a large-scale public offering in Beijing, cited the pharmaceutical outsourcing (CXO) sector as an example. The boom of the sector had already appeared last year, and the valuation was not cheap. Since the beginning of this year, the comparative advantage has declined, and the valuation needs to continue to be digested. .

Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief investment officer (equity) of Southern Asset Management, also believes that some of the track stocks have relatively concentrated positions, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term will drive the prices of related stocks to rise further.

  The institutional adjustment has become a booster for the continuous adjustment of the track.

Huang Peng, fund manager of Mingshi Partners Fund, said that the current low-valued sector has improved marginally, which has triggered institutions to switch from a high-valued growth style to a low-valued value style.

  Transactions are overcrowded, and the game between funds is also intensifying.

Zhou Ning still used CXO as an example. From a transaction perspective, some medical funds had previously allocated a high amount to the CXO sector, and some funds even reached an allocation ratio of 80%. Under the influence of external negative factors, institutions rushed to flee, leading to stock price fluctuations. increase.

Industry insiders said that funds with a large amount of capital usually do not limit the price of individual stock transactions, otherwise there will be unsuccessful transactions.

Therefore, once there are signs of a trend decline in funds holding group stocks, there is the possibility of continuous adjustment.

  "It is the second-tier companies in the pharmaceutical and new energy sectors that have fallen more recently. From the perspective of allocation, it is not that they are not optimistic about these industries. It is just that the chips are too concentrated. If we want to increase the allocation of low-valued sectors, we will give priority to selling such companies. Although the valuations of leading stocks are more expensive, they are more stable and valuable at the current stage, so second-tier growth stocks have fallen even harder." said Liang Hui, general manager of Xiangju Capital.

  Why is the fund "biased towards Tiger Mountain"

  The institutional track investment represented by funds has repeatedly staged the plot of concentrated capital betting, sharp rise in stock price, overdraft performance in valuation, and continuous adjustment of the track to loosen the group. The risks are obvious.

  Zhang Hui, general manager of China Universal Fund, said that from the investment side, there are signs of extreme and centralized investment by some fund managers in the industry, that is, betting heavily on a certain sector, which violates the portfolio management of balanced allocation and risk diversification. basic principle.

Some fund managers invest extremely in a certain sector, gain short-term performance rankings, and the "fame" story of rapid growth from small to 120 billion yuan affects fund managers.

  Last year, many fund managers drove rapid growth in scale with extreme style by focusing on investing in high-prosperity tracks.

A fund manager of a small and medium-sized fund company said: "Fund managers need to demonstrate the ability to demonstrate outstanding performance. Concentrating on investing in high-prosperity tracks can not only quickly prove their ability in the short term, but also create a 'safety pad' for career performance."

At the same time, short-term ranking pressure is an important reason for fund managers to stick together.

According to the "National Public Fund Market Investor Status Survey Report (2020)" released by the Asset Management Association of China, 60% of the public fund evaluation cycle does not exceed one year.

Among them, the proportion of assessment cycle in 3 months, 6 months and 1 year is 5.6%, 20.4% and 35.3% respectively.

Short-term ranking pressure leads fund managers to pursue short-term performance when investing, which in turn amplifies market volatility and results in a more extreme market style.

"In order to obtain high returns, some fund managers even use 80% or 90% of their funds to bet on an investment track, but this approach will have negative effects on fund managers, the fund industry or the A-share market." There are fund managers Express.

  Pressure from sales channels and Christian Democrats is also a major reason for the deformation of fund managers' investment behavior.

Zhang Hui said that sales agencies and end customers are becoming more and more interested in the so-called "traffic", that is to say, they buy whatever funds have high attention.

  Industry insiders said that by observing some Internet fund sales platforms, it can be found that some thematic investment funds with outstanding short-term performance or some in the air are recommended all year round.

Often, the more extreme the market performance of the track, the more popular the sales of related themed funds, and some fund managers who hold heavy positions in other tracks are even "pressured" by the holders to adjust their positions to the corresponding track.

  In order to avoid a repeat of the continuous adjustment of the track, some industry voices suggested that it should be regulated at the institutional level.

"Funds in the whole market need to strengthen information disclosure in terms of industry concentration to avoid 'blind box funds' with style drift; industry and thematic funds need to be more clear about their investment styles and fully inform investors of risks; the development of passive products should consider avoiding a large number of Repeated construction, such as the homogenization of ETF funds." An executive of a fund company said on condition of anonymity.

  At the level of investor education, industry insiders believe that Christian Democrats should be further guided to pay attention to the balance of fund returns and risks.

Zhang Hui said that fund products have two elements: one is income; the other is risk.

Investors always compare one factor, and either fail to pay attention to another factor for a short period of time, or completely forget about it.

  A new direction for institutional gaming

  After the continuous adjustment of the old track, the main line of the market is still unclear, and the game between institutions continues.

  Judging from the Shenwan primary industry index, in the first week of the Year of the Tiger, the policy direction for stabilizing growth is making efforts. Building materials, construction, banking, and non-banking finance are among the top gainers. Some institutional investors continue to focus on stabilizing growth.

  Invesco Great Wall Fund Liu Yanchun pointed out that under the background of clear growth policy direction, clear entry point, and clear characteristics of the joint efforts of various departments and lines, we should maintain confidence in the cumulative effect of the growth stabilization policy.

According to the order of the steady growth policy and the degree of improvement in profit margin, Chen Xianshun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities, recommends four main layout lines: first, pigs, home appliances, furniture, tourism, liquor and other directions with supported performance and weakened negative expectations; second, Building materials, construction, and power operations in the field of infrastructure; third, securities firms and banks in the financial sector; and fourth, consumer electronics.

  Northbound funding dynamics are also consistent with this.

From the perspective of industry capital flow changes, banking and non-banking finance are the industries with the largest net purchases in the past month.

  However, there are also some institutions firmly in the direction of growth stocks raised objections.

Institutional people who firmly believe in growth stocks believe that in the long run, growth stocks will still be dominated by them.

Wei Wei, a senior strategist at China Asset Management, said the current round of low-valued blue-chips may continue into April.

From a full-year perspective, the long-term earnings of growth stocks are still competitive, and the disclosure of the first quarterly report may bring directional judgments to investment in growth stocks.

  Chen Ping, manager of HSBC Jintrust Technology Pioneer Fund, believes that in the long run, growth stocks represented by new energy and pharmaceuticals represent the direction of my country's economic development, and representative high-quality companies will continue to emerge in the process of economic transformation and upgrading.