China's economy begins to "tiger" | Credit supply exceeds expectations, economic growth is confident
Zhongxin Finance, February 14 (Shi Rui) The plan for a year is in the spring, and the central bank has taken action.
In the first month of the new year, both the new RMB loans and the increase in the scale of social financing both hit record highs, giving the Chinese economy a good start to the new year.
Data map: Pedestrians walk past the People's Bank of China in Beijing.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
New Year's Credit Exceeds Expectations
On February 10, the People's Bank of China released the first financial data "transcript" of the new year. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly high, with an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
The increase in social financing in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, the highest in a single month, with an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year.
In the eyes of analysts, financial data in January showed that the effect of the monetary policy's increased cross-cycle adjustment and front-end efforts has already appeared, and the process of easing credit is accelerating, providing strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market in the first half of the year.
"The expansion of credit is faster than everyone expected," Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, analyzed to Zhongxin Finance and Economics. Under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, "the credit data in January exceeded expectations. It shows that the relevant departments have made a lot of preparations for stable growth at the end of last year, and the pressure on economic growth will be relieved in the future."
Data map: The production line of a company's staff workshop is busy.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Yu Jing
Demand for medium and long-term loans of enterprises picks up
Western Securities believes that the most positive aspect of the loan data is the year-on-year increase in new medium and long-term loans to the corporate sector in January, which is also the first year-on-year increase in this indicator in six months.
"Companies' expectations have gradually stabilized, and we have observed that the demand for medium and long-term loans on the corporate side has also begun to pick up."
According to the data disclosed by the central bank, in January, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; corporate loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased. 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan.
According to reports from the Shanghai Securities News, people from the banking industry in many places have learned that the focus of credit issuance in January was in infrastructure construction, advanced manufacturing, and inclusive finance.
At the same time, real estate financing is gradually returning to normal.
Just in January, the central bank lowered the one-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) again, and the five-year LPR was lowered for the first time in 20 months.
At present, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans is the lowest level in the more than 40 years of reform and opening up.
Liu Guoqiang, vice-governor of the People's Bank of China, said last month that the central bank will continue to promote stable and moderate declines in the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, and promote the financial system to make profits to the real economy.
Li Xunlei predicts that the central bank may continue to cut RRR and interest rates in the future, and at the same time, more active fiscal policies, such as increasing infrastructure investment and promoting consumption, may also follow.
On the 11th, the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021" issued by the central bank also proposed to continue to improve the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, give full play to the efficiency of the loan market quotation interest rate reform, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, and guide corporate loan interest rates to fall.
RMB data map.
Photo by Zhang Yun
Expanding credit supply will be more powerful
In the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021", the central bank proposed in detail the main policy ideas for the next stage, and proposed to achieve a better combination of stable total volume and excellent structure, maintain a stable growth of the total amount of money and credit, and structural currency. Policy tools are actively doing "addition".
Specifically, we will improve the money supply control mechanism, continue to ease the three constraints of bank credit supply, liquidity, capital and interest rates, cultivate and stimulate credit demand in the real economy, guide financial institutions to vigorously expand credit supply, and enhance the stability of total credit growth.
Implement market-oriented policy tools to support small and micro enterprises, make good use of carbon emission reduction support tools and special re-lending to support the clean and efficient use of coal, guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance to areas with slow credit growth, and make targeted efforts to increase the amount of credit for small and micro enterprises. Support for key areas and weak links such as enterprises, technological innovation, and green development.
At the same time, the central bank emphasized that it will strengthen the financial service capacity building of small, medium and micro enterprises, guide financial institutions to continue to increase initial loans, renewal loans, and credit loans, and promote the formation of a long-term mechanism for dare to loan, willing to loan, able to loan, and joint loan.
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