(Finance and Economics) Can the "harvest year" of global trade be reproduced?

  China News Service, Beijing, February 13 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The 2021 import and export data released by many countries recently reflects the rare "bumper harvest" scene in global trade, but it remains to be seen whether the good year can be repeated this year.

  According to data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on the 9th, the import and export volume of goods in Germany in 2021 will be about 1.2 trillion euros and 1.4 trillion euros, an increase of 17.1% and 14% respectively over the previous year, not only exceeding the level before the new crown epidemic. , a record high and significantly higher than market expectations.

  In Asia, China's import and export volume exceeded US$6 trillion for the first time in 2021. Eight years after reaching US$4 trillion for the first time in 2013, it broke through the two major barriers of US$5 trillion and US$6 trillion, reaching a record high.

In RMB terms, China's exports and imports in 2021 will increase by 21.2% and 21.5% year-on-year, respectively, and both have a high growth rate of more than 20% compared with 2019.

  South Korea's exports in 2021 will be US$644.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, which is US$39.6 billion more than the record of US$604.9 billion in 2018; the total import and export volume is nearly US$1.26 trillion, also a record high.

The 15 major export varieties including semiconductors, petrochemicals, and automobiles all achieved double-digit growth, the first time since 2000.

  Japan's exports in 2021 will increase by 21.5% year-on-year, with exports to China hitting a new high.

The growth rate of Thailand's import and export volume also climbed to an 11-year high last year, with the import volume increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year.

  The rapid growth of multinational trade is mainly due to the continued recovery of the global economy and the surge in demand.

In the first half of 2021, major economies recovered strongly, and after the third quarter, they generally slowed down and the growth rate also diverged.

But overall, the world economy is still on an upward trajectory throughout the year.

According to the World Bank, the global economy will grow by 5.5% in 2021.

The forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was more optimistic, at 5.9%.

  A general rise in the prices of commodities such as crude oil, metals and grains also pushed up exports and imports to some extent.

According to foreign media reports, as of the end of January this year, the Refinitiv/core commodities CRB index rose 46% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1995.

Among the 22 major commodities, the prices of 9 commodities rose by more than 50% annually, among which coffee rose 91%, cotton rose 58%, and aluminum rose 53%.

  However, analysts believe that the momentum of global trade growth may weaken this year.

  The world economy is now facing multiple downside risks such as the spread of the epidemic, escalating geopolitical tensions, and intensifying climate change, which means that the trade recovery is on a shaky footing.

Recently, many international organizations and institutions, including the World Bank, IMF, and OECD, have lowered their forecasts for world economic growth in 2022.

  In addition, insufficient supply chain resilience will also constrain trade recovery.

Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that for enterprises, trade tensions between major economies and the near-paralysis of the multilateral trading system, frequent occurrence of climate and natural disasters, and frequent cyber attacks have increased in different dimensions. the possibility of supply chain disruption.

  Supply chain stability is critical to global trade.

According to statistics from the World Trade Organization (WTO), due to factors such as supply chain disruptions, the volume of global merchandise trade declined in the third quarter of last year.

If the "black swan" event that caused supply chain blockages or even breaks this year recurs, global trade may inevitably be dragged down.

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