Original title: The stable recovery of the real economy drives the rapid growth of logistics demand, and the transformation accelerates the logistics industry to achieve a stable start
In 2021, my country's logistics industry will show a solid recovery trend, the real economy will continue to recover steadily, and the demand for logistics will grow rapidly. The logistics supply and service system will be further improved, and the resilience of the supply chain will be improved. The "14th Five-Year Plan" started well.
In 2022, logistics business activities will continue to be active, and the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry will be accelerated.
According to data recently released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry in January 2022 was 51.1%, achieving a stable start.
In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.1%, which was in the prosperity range.
In terms of industry, the business volume and new order index of the railway transportation industry and the postal express delivery industry have increased significantly.
The picture shows the large-scale machinery is loading containers in the Sino-Kazakhstan logistics base in Lianyungang, Jiangsu.
(Photo courtesy of CNSPHOTO)
The index remains in the boom range
He Hui, assistant president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that due to the holiday factor, the logistics industry's prosperity index in January fluctuated cyclically. Although it fell from the previous month, the index level continued to remain within the prosperity range.
In terms of sub-indices, the business volume index, new order index, capital turnover index, equipment utilization index, logistics service price index, main business cost index and business activity expectation index are in the boom range.
In terms of industry, the business volume and new order index of the railway transportation industry and the postal express delivery industry have increased significantly.
From a regional perspective, logistics activities in the eastern region are more active.
From the perspective of enterprises, the prosperity index of large enterprises exceeded 55%.
At the same time, the total business index of the logistics industry in January dropped 1.5 percentage points from the previous month to 51.1%, but the overall operation level was relatively stable.
Affected by factors such as the return of employees to their hometowns during the Spring Festival, the employment index in January dropped by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7%.
In addition, the average inventory index fell by 2.4 percentage points to 49.1% in January, and the inventory turnover index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%.
The two inventory indexes both showed a cyclical decline, and a recovery growth is expected in the later period.
From the perspective of the later trend, the new order index and the business activity expectation index were 50.5% and 57.5% respectively, both of which remained at the prosperity level, indicating that the logistics activities will still maintain a stable operation.
The data shows that in 2021, my country's total social logistics will maintain a good growth trend, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP will be stable with some decline, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" will achieve a good start.
The total revenue of the logistics industry has achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the total revenue of the logistics industry will be 11.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.
In 2021, the total national social logistics will be 335.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% based on comparable prices, an average annual growth rate of 6.2% in the two years, and the growth rate has returned to the average level of normal years.
The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP fell slightly.
In 2021, the total cost of social logistics will be 16.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%.
The ratio of total social logistics expenses to GDP was 14.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year.
There are still pain points in the development of the industry
In 2022, the development of my country's logistics industry will face challenges.
The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still unavoidable, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain.
From a domestic point of view, my country's economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations.
From the perspective of the logistics industry itself, there are still pain points in the development.
Specifically, micro operating costs continued to rise.
Raw material costs, normalized epidemic prevention and control costs, and labor costs have jointly pushed up the operating costs of logistics companies.
From January to November 2021, the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased by 33%, maintaining high growth for many consecutive months.
In addition, the cost of capital is still rising significantly, and the pressure on fund collection is relatively high.
The logistics industry has been operating at low profits for a long time. In 2021, driven by logistics demand and service prices, industry profits will rebound.
From January to November, the revenue profit rate of key logistics enterprises was 4.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
However, compared with the industry itself, it is still lower than the level of about 5% before the epidemic.
Compared with upstream industrial enterprises, the level of profitability and recovery is still low.
In addition, affected by factors such as epidemic prevention and control, in the past two years, there has been a certain shortage of front-line logistics employees.
According to the survey, 40.3% of the enterprises indicated that there is a shortage of labor in the basic operation of logistics.
In addition, there is a general shortage of workers in fields such as couriers, truck drivers, and crew members. Although wages in these fields continue to rise, they still face a shortage of supply.
Although the development of the logistics industry faces many difficulties, there are also many positive factors and favorable conditions.
2022 is a year when the economy gradually returns to normal operation. With the full implementation of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and the accelerated implementation of economic stabilization policies and measures deployed by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2021, the logistics demand for investment, consumption and foreign trade will continue. Recovery, logistics business activities will maintain a relatively high level, and the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry will accelerate. It is expected that the logistics industry will continue to develop steadily throughout the year, and the growth rate of total social logistics may remain at around 6%.
Logistics industry faces new opportunities
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of my country's logistics industry will usher in a new period of strategic opportunities.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing believes that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a modern logistics system, form a safe and efficient logistics network with internal and external connectivity, achieve a steady improvement in the quality of modern logistics and a reasonable increase in quantity, and cultivate and expand modern logistics enterprises with international competitiveness. Leading the construction of a modern logistics system into a new journey.
On December 6, 2021, China Logistics Group Co., Ltd. was officially established, and the only new state-owned enterprise with integrated logistics as its main business was born.
It is reported that the newly formed China Logistics Group consists of the former China Railway Materials Group Co., Ltd., and China Materials Storage and Transportation Group Co., Ltd., China Trade International Logistics Co., Ltd., China Logistics Co., Ltd., China Chengtong Holdings Group Co., Ltd. It is based on the integration of four enterprises of China Packaging Co., Ltd.
Previously, the "Implementation Opinions on Further Reducing Logistics Costs" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport proposed to cultivate backbone logistics enterprises, encourage market-oriented mergers and reorganizations of large logistics enterprises, and improve comprehensive service capabilities and international competitiveness.
On January 24, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference to introduce the relevant situation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" modern circulation system construction plan.
Zhang Guohua, deputy director of the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we will focus on making up for the shortcomings of the modern circulation system, focusing on the high-quality development of the modern circulation system, accelerating the formation of a unified large market for modern circulation, and developing modern circulation systems. The two major systems of commerce and trade circulation and modern logistics will strengthen the three aspects of transportation, finance and credit to form an overall development framework of "one market, two systems, and three supports".
At the same time, it is necessary to cultivate high-quality innovative modern circulation enterprises and create market players with international competitiveness.
Give full play to the dominant position of enterprises, support circulation enterprises to become bigger, stronger and better, and enhance the driving force of innovation and core competitiveness.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing stated that the logistics industry will accelerate the formation of a safe and efficient logistics network with internal and external connectivity through innovative means such as digital transformation, and promote industrial upgrading.
Driven by factors such as high-quality economic development, supply chain coordination, and improved logistics service quality, it is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the further improvement of logistics efficiency, the level of logistics costs in the whole society will drop steadily.
(Reporter Li Yuanfang)