(Finance and Economics) Many institutions with high risks have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth this year

  China News Agency, Beijing, February 12 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Last year, the economies of many countries "recovered lost ground", but the road to recovery this year may not be smooth.

Due to the frequent occurrence of risk points, many institutions have recently lowered their forecasts for global economic growth this year.

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently estimated in its latest report that the global economic growth rate will be 4.4% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from its forecast in October last year.

  According to the report, the global economic situation in 2022 is more fragile than previously expected, and overall, the global economic recovery momentum is expected to weaken this year.

  The World Bank report also pointed out that due to the continuous spread of the new crown epidemic, reduced policy support in various economies and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, the global economic recovery momentum will "significantly slow down", and the global economic growth rate this year will only be 4.1%.

  Different economies will feel the pressure, especially emerging markets and developing countries.

  According to the IMF, the economic growth rate of developed economies will be 3.9% this year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast; the economic growth rate of emerging market and developing economies will be 4.8%, down 0.3 percentage points.

  The World Bank believes that the US economy will grow by 3.7% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from its previous forecast; the euro zone will grow by 4.2%.

  The latest report from the European Commission lowered the EU's economic growth forecast for 2022 to 4% from 4.3% previously, and expects it to slow further to 2.8% in 2023.

The EU economy still faces greater risks and uncertainties, and headwinds to economic growth are increasing, the report said.

  By contrast, Asian countries appear to have better economic prospects, thanks to strong growth in intra-regional trade.

The Asian Development Bank recently released a report saying that the rapid growth of trade among economies in the Asia-Pacific region is conducive to enhancing regional economic resilience and helping the Asia-Pacific economy achieve sustainable recovery.

Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Arcia believes that Asia's economic growth will exceed that of the United States and Europe in the next two years.

  The COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflationary pressures and climate change are cited as major disruptions to the global economic recovery.

  According to the World Bank, the global economy faces a number of downside risks, including a resurgence of the epidemic caused by the rapid spread of the mutated new coronavirus Omicron strain, soaring inflation expectations and financial stress from record high debt levels.

At the same time, climate change could exacerbate commodity price volatility, posing challenges to emerging market and developing economies.

  Policy risks also cast a shadow over the economic recovery.

The IMF pointed out that rising interest rates in advanced economies will lead to risks in emerging market and developing economies in terms of capital flows, monetary and fiscal positions and debt.

  Some analysts believe that if the major developed economies deal with inflation and maintain recovery with improper monetary and fiscal policies, it will trigger turbulent plunges in asset prices, stifle the fragile economic recovery and possibly push the economy into a stagflation channel.

  Under this circumstance, coordination and cooperation have become the only way to push the world economy out of its slump.

  IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath believes that policymakers in various economies need to closely monitor various economic data, prepare for emergencies, communicate in a timely manner and implement response policies.

At the same time, economies should conduct effective international cooperation.

  World Bank President Malpass said that global macroeconomic imbalances have reached unprecedented levels, income inequality between and within economies is widening, and the global economy is facing "unprecedented uncertainty".

He called on the international community to strengthen coordinated action and national-level policy responses to achieve healthy growth in economies around the world.

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