After the Spring Festival holiday, black varieties led by thermal coal futures fluctuated violently, arousing market attention.

On February 10, analysts interviewed by reporters believed that the early rise in thermal coal futures prices was mainly due to factors such as low coal inventories at ports, but the current downstream demand for thermal coal is gradually coming to an end, and the overall supply and demand side will tend to be relaxed, and policies will be superimposed. In the short term, the price of thermal coal futures is more likely to fall.

Coal resources shrink to provide support

  In the first two trading days of this week, thermal coal futures performed strongly, with the main contract rising by about 13.52% in the first two trading days, and even closing at the daily limit on Tuesday.

  Lin Jingwei, a black researcher at Jinxin Futures, said that the core factor behind the strong rise in thermal coal futures at the beginning of this week was that the data performance was lower than expected.

  "In terms of power plant data, due to the fact that the daily consumption of power plants this year is significantly higher than that of previous years, the number of days available for coal storage in power plants has always maintained a normal low level, and superimposed coal has a higher priority to ensure power supply plants, resulting in a certain shrinkage of coal resources in the market under the pressure of power plants. .In terms of port inventory, the inventory of northern ports is low after the Spring Festival, and traders have not shown too strong willingness to collect ports, so it is difficult for inventory to recover quickly in the short term. Indonesia's coal exports have normalized since February, but they are still unstable. In February The spot resources have basically been sold out, and the improvement is expected to appear in late February." Lin Jingwei told reporters.

  Huang Tianchang, the marketing department of China Derivatives Futures Co., Ltd., analyzed that there are four main factors supporting the recent strength of power futures prices: first, the market has high expectations for power consumption levels; second, the port coal is currently in a low inventory and stable delivery situation ; Third, most factories did not stop working during the Spring Festival this year, and the demand for coal increased relatively; Fourth, the State Council recently launched the "Carbon Peaking Action Plan before 2030", and many ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry". Black varieties have formed a certain positive.

Stabilizing the market policy has an immediate effect

  It is worth mentioning that the rapid rise in coal prices has attracted widespread attention. In just two days, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (“ZCE”) have made three moves to stabilize the coal market. A pullback started Wednesday afternoon.

As of the close of noon on February 10, the main contract of thermal coal futures fell 3.46% to 836.2 yuan / ton, which has given back nearly half of the previous gains.

  On February 8, the official Weibo news of the National Development and Reform Commission said that since the third day of the first lunar month, coal production in various regions has rebounded rapidly, and it has basically returned to the pre-holiday level. more than 40 million tons.

With the accelerated recovery of coal production, the coal demand in the superimposed heating season has declined, and the coal supply guarantee capacity will be further enhanced.

  On the same day, when the thermal coal futures price went up to the limit, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement to raise the thermal coal 2205 contract trading margin standard to 50%.

  On February 10, the National Development and Reform Commission once again announced that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting recently to arrange and continue to stabilize the coal market price, and interviewed some companies whose coal prices were found to be inflated by monitoring. Reminder, request to check and rectify as soon as possible.

The meeting emphasized that coal production enterprises should resume normal production and supply as soon as possible, strictly implement the national policy requirements of ensuring coal supply and stabilizing prices, further raise awareness, strengthen enterprise self-discipline, and regulate price behavior. For those who still fail to rectify after being reminded, they will further study and take measures such as investigation and accountability; local relevant departments should strengthen monitoring reports, timely publicize and interpret policies, and promote stable operation of coal prices within a reasonable range.

  In this regard, Lin Jingwei said that the successive voices of the National Development and Reform Commission and the exchange's increase of the thermal coal 2205 contract trading margins are mainly reflected in two aspects: one is to guide the market to correctly understand the current situation of the thermal coal market and adjust market expectations; the other is to suppress market speculation. , to prevent the hype from heating up.

At present, supervision has had a certain effect on the cooling effect of the market, and there will be more guiding actions to cooperate in the follow-up.

  Huang Ke, assistant manager of Dayou Futures Investment Research Center, believes that the current spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the port has exceeded 1,100 yuan/ton.

Market outlook or weak operation

  For the market outlook, the analysts interviewed agreed that the overall supply and demand side will tend to be loose, superimposed on policy regulation, and thermal coal futures prices may run weaker in the later period.

  Huang Ke said that the current bullish view in the market mainly believes that the withdrawal of some guaranteed supply production will lead to supply contraction. At the same time, the international coal supply is tight and prices are high, and imports are expected to decrease.

However, according to his analysis, the current domestic coal price is high, and the task of ensuring the supply and price of coal is still arduous. At least in the short term, the possibility of withdrawing from the supply guarantee policy is less likely, so there is no need to worry too much about the supply contraction.

At the same time, with the gradual weakening of downstream demand, the overall supply and demand side will tend to be loose, and the pressure on the policy side will be superimposed.

  "From the point of view of time, the current demand for thermal coal is gradually approaching the end of the peak season, and the supply side from the holiday to the 15th day of the first lunar month is bound to accelerate the resumption of production and transportation. The state is gradually moving towards easing, and it is difficult to maintain short-term strength." Lin Jingwei said.

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