In response to the continuous rise in coal prices after the Spring Festival, on February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration convened a special meeting with energy authorities and related companies in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places to arrange and continue to stabilize coal market prices. It also reminds companies with falsely high coal prices to strengthen self-discipline, regulate price behavior, and ensure that coal prices are stable within a reasonable range.
Previously, with the overall stable supply and demand in the coal market, domestic coal spot and futures prices generally rose too fast in mid-to-late January.
During the Spring Festival, although relevant regions and central enterprises made every effort to stabilize coal production and supply and ensure the demand for coal use, due to factors such as the decline in coal supply caused by the Spring Festival holiday of some private coal enterprises and the reduction of coal inventories in some ports, some pits and ports have thermal coal inventories. Prices have risen to varying degrees.
"The current market fluctuations should be viewed rationally. At present, the average available days of coal storage in domestic power plants has reached 23 days, which is significantly higher than the average level in previous years." Li Zhongmin, deputy general manager of the National Coal Trading Center, believes that after the Spring Festival, the recovery of domestic coal production has accelerated, and coal demand has accelerated. Effective guarantees, continuous enhancement of coal transportation, and the emergence of mid- and long-term contracts, the "four carriages" of factors affecting coal prices are running in a safe and orderly manner, and coal prices will return rationally and gradually decline——
The recovery of coal production is accelerated.
The Economic Daily reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that since February 3, coal production in various regions has rebounded rapidly and has basically returned to the pre-holiday level. Over 40 million tons.
In 2021, the output of raw coal will be 4.07 billion tons, and the average daily output of coal in the fourth quarter will reach more than 12 million tons.
The monitoring data of the National Coal Trading Center shows that the coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major producing areas will recover faster after the holidays, and the coal demand in the superimposed heating season will decrease, and the coal supply guarantee capacity will be further enhanced.
It is guaranteed to meet market demand.
Experts said that winter is the peak season for traditional energy consumption. From the current point of view, extreme cold weather is a small probability event. The strength of consumption rebound driven by industrial resumption of work and production after the holiday is generally weaker than before the holiday. With the reduction of heating energy, coal consumption will be reduced. Enter seasonal adjustment.
At present, the average available days of coal storage in domestic power plants has reached 23 days, and the available days in the main coal transfer areas such as Central China and Southwest China are higher than the average.
Sufficient coal reserves will be released stably, and market demand will be effectively guaranteed.
Coal transportation continues to increase.
According to the National Railway Group, as of February 3, 363 railway direct power supply plants across the country had stored 66.95 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 72%.
The relevant person in charge of the China National Railway Group said that in response to the impact of coal transportation by other transportation methods in Henan and other epidemic-related areas, the railway transportation volume will be increased, and the key supply will be guaranteed; for the 18 power plants in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, the number of days available for coal storage is relatively low At the same time, seize the precious "window period" of reducing the number of passenger cars during the Spring Festival holiday, give full play to the role of heavy-haul railways such as Daqin, Tangbao, Wari, Haoji, Houyue, etc., and make overall arrangements for the transportation capacity of thermal coal , to meet the transportation needs.
The main coal transportation channel capacity of “West-East Coal Transportation” and “North-South Coal Transportation” has been continuously strengthened, the railway collection and distribution network of production and sales areas has been continuously improved, the multimodal transportation of major ports and logistics parks has been developed in an orderly manner, and the coal transportation capacity has been further improved.
The role of mid- and long-term contracts has emerged.
In December 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Regular Reporting of the Progress of the Signing of Medium- and Long-Term Coal Contracts in 2022", which clarified that the medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2022 will be recorded and summarized in the National Coal Trading Center, realizing the demand for coal. , closed-loop management of production and sales, volume and price, contract performance, integrity, etc.
In 2022, the number of medium and long-term coal contracts signed will increase significantly year-on-year. The increase in medium and long-term contracts for railways will exceed 150 million tons. The volume of medium and long-term contracts through Bohai Rim ports will account for nearly or exceed 90% of the water volume. Medium and long-term coal for power generation and heating The signing rate of supply and demand contracts will reach 100%, and the role of "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" on the market will also appear.
However, the coal market resources are still tight in the short term, especially as companies resume work and production one after another, the demand for coal purchases increases, and the increase in energy demand brought about by the overall steady growth of my country's economy may form a certain support for domestic coal prices.
In this regard, Bruce Lee, director of the Marketing Department of China Coal Market Network, said that in the long run, as coal companies further resume normal production and supply after the holiday, especially after the relevant competent departments jointly held a meeting to strictly implement the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the 5,500 kcal The port coal price and the coal price of the origin will return to the price range of 900 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.
Our reporter Gu YangKeywords: