The low temperature trend of the real estate market in key cities during the Spring Festival holiday continues

Sales of top 100 real estate companies fell by nearly 40%

  In 2022, the real estate market will not close during the Spring Festival in various places. How will the real estate market perform?

On February 7, the official WeChat account of the China Index Academy released, according to its monitoring data, during the Spring Festival in 2022 (January 31 to February 6), the transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial residential buildings in key monitored cities decreased compared with last year's Spring Festival. 51%.

Among them, driven by the transaction scale in Shanghai, the transaction scale of first-tier representative cities increased compared with last year's Spring Festival, and the second-tier representative cities fell by about 50% compared with last year's Spring Festival.

At the same time, the reporter noticed that policies to stabilize the property market across the country were frequently released.

Institutional data shows that in January this year, the country issued a total of 66 real estate control policies, a year-on-year increase of 57%.

  Text and photos / All media reporter Zhang Lu of Guangzhou Daily

  Buyers wait-and-see mood

  As far as the performance of the national property market during the Spring Festival is concerned, the China Index Research Institute analyzed that the epidemic situation in many places has recurred before the Spring Festival, and the governments of many places continue to advocate "Chinese New Year in place", but under the influence of factors such as the orderly progress of epidemic prevention and control, compared with In the first two years, there was still a substantial increase in the number of returnees.

In 2022, the property market will not close during the Spring Festival in various places. However, in the overall market environment, the trend of home buyers in small and medium-sized cities is still relatively sluggish. In large cities, under the "Chinese New Year on the spot", home buyers are not active, and the transaction scale continues to decline.

  According to its monitoring data, during the Spring Festival in 2022, the market sentiment in key monitoring cities across the country is low. Except for the increase in the transaction scale of individual cities, the transaction area of ​​other monitoring representative cities has decreased compared with that during the Spring Festival last year.

Among them, individual cities mainly refer to Shanghai and Suzhou.

Among them, 103,000 square meters of new houses were sold in Shanghai during the Spring Festival, an increase of 646% over last year's Spring Festival.

  In the first month of 2022, the housing market continued its cooling trend since the second half of last year.

According to data released by the CRIC Research Center, in January, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales volume of 525.6 billion yuan, and the monthly performance scale decreased by 39.6% year-on-year and 43% lower than the monthly average in 2021. Most large-scale housing companies The sales performance was poor, and the performance was lower than the same period last year and the monthly average level of last year.

In this regard, Crier Research Center analyzed that, on the one hand, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, many real estate companies have slowed down the pace of supply, and the sluggish supply has led to a sharp decline in transactions to a certain extent.

More importantly, since the second half of last year, the downward pressure on the market has intensified, and the buyer's wait-and-see mood has become more intense.

  National property market stabilization policies are frequently released

  Since January this year, Guangxi Beihai, Sichuan Zigong and other places have issued new policies on provident fund loans, clearly relaxing the provident fund loan requirements.

Among them, Zigong clearly relaxes the policy on the number of housing units, and implements the recognition standard of "only subscribed for loans but not housing".

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the provident fund has a limited amount, and most of the provident fund is used by those who just need it and improve the house. For local governments, relaxing the provident fund policy can release a signal to the market to stabilize the property market.

  Institutional data shows that since 2022, the national real estate market regulation policies have been intensively released.

In January, the country issued a total of 66 real estate control policies, a year-on-year increase of 57%.

  The China Index Academy also pointed out that in the short term, cities with greater pressure on real estate market adjustment will continue to strengthen credit support for first and second housing, such as adjusting the provident fund loan policy (increasing the loan amount) , reducing the down payment ratio), lowering the mortgage interest rate, etc., to stabilize the expectations of home buyers and ensure the normal release of reasonable demand for home purchases.

However, for the market, it will take time for local support policies to take effect, and it is expected that the short-term market adjustment trend will continue.

In some cities with early adjustment and strong demand support, the market is expected to gradually bottom out and rebound, and the traditional "small spring" in March is still expected.