Watch your wallets, prices will continue to rise.
Inflation should indeed accelerate a little more than expected in the first half of the year to reach “between 3% and 3.5%”, INSEE estimated on Tuesday.
The institute has also revised slightly down to 0.3% its growth forecast for the first quarter.
In January, inflation has already reached 2.9% year on year, and this movement should continue with a repercussion of the increases in the costs of food and industrial production, pushed by the increase in the prices of energy and raw materials. first in recent months, details INSEE in its new economic update.
Food prices should, for example, rise by 2.5% in June over one year, against +1.5% in January.
The assumption of a barrel at 90 dollars
In its previous forecasts published in mid-December, the National Institute of Statistics expected global inflation above 2.6% for the first half of 2022. But since then, beyond the strength of the economic recovery which is increasing commodity prices, "strong geopolitical tensions", particularly in Ukraine, have once again pulled oil prices up, notes INSEE, which is now assuming a price of 90 dollars a barrel, compared to 75 dollars previously.
This acceleration in inflation should, however, be contained by the measures put in place to support household purchasing power: energy vouchers, inflation compensation, blocking of gas prices or capping the rise in electricity prices. .
“Without them, the inflation forecast for February would have been raised by at least one percentage point”, or more than 4%, assesses INSEE.
With regard to economic activity, INSEE slightly lowered its growth forecast for the first quarter to 0.3%, against 0.4% previously, due to the arrival of the Omicron variant.
The restrictions put in place (gauges, extension of the closure of discotheques, protocol in schools, vaccination pass, etc.) and absenteeism at work caused by the numerous contaminations have in fact deteriorated the prospects in trade and services and slowed down household consumption, “particularly in accommodation-catering, transport services or leisure”.
But this slowdown in the economy, after growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2021, should only be “temporary”, according to the institute.
INSEE thus raised its growth forecast for the second quarter by 0.1 point, to +0.6%, with in particular a “slow dissipation” of supply difficulties.
However, he warns of recruitment difficulties, which "reach record levels".
Economy
Why more and more big brands are getting into the second-hand market
Economy
Further acceleration in price increases with a rise of 2.9% over one year in January
purchasing power
Insee
Inflation
Raw materials
Video
Economy
0 comment
0 share
Share on Messenger
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on Flipboard
Share on Pinterest
Share on Linkedin
Send by Mail
To safeguard
A fault ?
To print