Zhang Xin
On February 7, the first trading day of the Year of the Tiger, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 2.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.96%, and the ChiNext Index closed up 0.31%, and the stock prices of more than 3,400 companies rose.
The positives of the good start pass deserve attention.
After the Chinese Women's Asian Cup won the championship on the evening of February 6, some netizens ridiculed hopefully that "the ball has been passed to A shares".
Of course, in view of the current complex development environment, it is difficult to determine the trend of the A-share market's index doubling in two years after the 2006 Women's Asian Cup.
However, today's A-share market, like the Chinese women's football team, is feeling a warmer development atmosphere. Even if it may encounter periodic difficulties, it will still work hard towards the established goal.
"Having the foundation, the conditions, the confidence and the ability to maintain the stable, healthy and sustainable development of the economy" - this is the judgment made by the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission recently on the current economic situation in China, and it is also the realistic basis for investors to expect the A-share market to thrive.
The "transcript" of China's economy in 2021 is eye-catching: the total economic volume exceeds 114 trillion yuan, and the advantages of a complete industrial system continue to be demonstrated; the foreign trade volume breaks the US$6 trillion mark for the first time, setting a record high; the contribution rate to world economic growth for many consecutive years more than 30%, becoming the main stabilizer and power source of global economic development.
At present, although the external environment has become more complex and uncertain, and domestic development is also facing triple pressures, the characteristics of my country's economic development have not changed because of its strong resilience, great potential, broad prospects and long-term improvement.
For example, in terms of consumption data, although the complete data has not yet been released, the popularity of the payment industry and the logistics industry may be a better window to observe micro-consumption: during the Spring Festival, the public pays for business in scenarios such as shopping, dining, travel, leisure and entertainment. Since the beginning of the Spring Festival travel on January 17, the national postal express industry has collected and delivered express parcels by 34.1% and 36.94% respectively compared with the same period last year.
The monetary policy of "sufficient force" and "opening the toolbox a little more" is an important factor supporting the good performance of the A-share market.
The central bank said that in 2022, it will intensify cross-cycle adjustment, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, be more proactive, more proactive, focus on forward efforts, and guide financial institutions to increase special attention to the real economy. It is the support of small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development, stabilizes the macroeconomic market, and creates a suitable monetary and financial environment for promoting high-quality economic development.
On January 17, the People's Bank of China launched a 700 billion yuan MLF operation and a 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation to increase liquidity supply and hedge the impact of short-term disturbance factors in advance. Driven by it, on January 20, the first phase of LPR in 2022 ushered in a "double drop".
Sufficient liquidity will undoubtedly affect the A-share market by stimulating corporate vitality and active market transactions.
The continued traction of deepening reform is the core of the real development of the A-share market.
In the new stage of high-quality development, the Chinese economy really needs to strengthen the important functions of the capital market in promoting technology, capital and industrial circulation. This requires the A-share market to fully implement the stock issuance registration system as the main line, and to further promote the capital market reform; continue to maintain IPO and refinancing are normalized; adhere to the "hard technology" positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, continue to build the ChiNext, give full play to the service capabilities of the Beijing Stock Exchange for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and regulate the development of private equity and venture capital funds...
Spring is in a hurry, but that doesn't mean the chill is gone.
In the first quarter of this year, China's economy is still facing many uncertainties, but the relevant departments obviously have a clear understanding of this, and they have emphasized that the policy force should be appropriately moved forward, so that early arrangements, early actions, and early results should be achieved.
The National Development and Reform Commission recently emphasized, "Hurry up to introduce a series of policy measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Timely study and propose targeted measures to stimulate industrial operations. Moderately advance infrastructure investment and strive to form more physical workloads in the first quarter"; the central bank emphasized that, "We must hurry up to do things, operate forward-looking, and walk in front of the market curve"; the China Securities Regulatory Commission has also made it clear before that "the conditions for the full implementation of the registration system have been gradually fulfilled, and the reform plan is being formulated as soon as possible"...
The plan of the year is spring.
Through the good start in the spring of the Year of the Tiger, what we see is the endogenous driving force of the reform of China's economy and the A-share market, and the system capacity formed by the policy side, the capital side and the micro-subjects. These are actually more valuable than the good start.
(Securities Daily)