Our reporter Meng Ke
Macroeconomic data for January will be released soon.
On February 7, the "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed a number of experts to "take the pulse" of the macroeconomic situation in advance.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told the Securities Daily reporter that the economy continued to recover in January, but the impact of the epidemic still persisted, and it would take some time for the effects of the stabilizing growth policy to gradually be released. Therefore, the macro economy will continue to operate in the first quarter. within a reasonable range.
Liu Xiangdong, an associate researcher at the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at the beginning of 2022, economic development will still face triple pressures, but in general it will maintain a stable and progressive trend, especially the price level will remain stable. CPI growth is expected to remain at a moderate inflation level of 1%.
At the same time, consumption will increase under the influence of holidays such as the Spring Festival, and it is expected to return to the level before the epidemic.
CPI expected to maintain in January
1% moderate inflation
In Zhou Maohua's view, consumption in January was relatively complicated. Affected by the Spring Festival and the local epidemic, various consumption sectors have changed.
The demand for transportation, tourism, accommodation and catering and some consumer goods continued to be suppressed, and the property market was still at the bottoming stage. Affected by the Spring Festival, related consumption such as New Year's goods maintained moderate growth.
Overall, consumption is expected to maintain expansion in January, but the momentum is weak.
"Considering that the domestic temperature is generally normal during the Spring Festival this year, the price of fruits and vegetables has grown moderately, the price of pork has been stable at a low level, the supply of domestic consumer staples is sufficient, and many businesses have discounted sales, superimposing the increase in the base last year, and it is expected that the overall price will drop slightly in January." Zhou Maohua further Analysis shows that although the prices of energy and other commodities rose slightly in January, affected by the high base last year, it is expected that the PPI in January is still expected to fall year-on-year, and the scissors gap between PPI and CPI may narrow in January.
"As the policy efforts are appropriately advanced and the policy measures to carry out infrastructure investment are appropriately advanced, it is expected that investment will accelerate, and the growth rate of fixed investment in January will exceed 5%." Liu Xiangdong said.
Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of the three major sub-items of fixed investment, it is expected that manufacturing investment will continue to recover, real estate investment will stabilize at a low level, and infrastructure investment will improve slightly.
Year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter
It is expected to be around 5.5%
Zhou Maohua said that from January to February, factors such as local epidemics, seasonal factors, and lagging policy effects in China have suppressed domestic demand to a certain extent; however, domestic macro policies have been advanced ahead of schedule, and fiscal, financial and other policies have been coordinated to provide targeted services. Relief of enterprises to promote the recovery of domestic demand.
Since November last year, the domestic property market has shown signs of stabilization, infrastructure investment has gradually improved, and auto sales have gradually recovered.
The gradual release of policy effects in the first quarter is expected to hedge against the downward pressure on the economy.
Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the macroeconomic rhythm in the first quarter was similar to that of 2019. On the one hand, the Spring Festival dates were similar, and on the other hand, the policy environment was similar.
The dislocation effect of the Spring Festival will be reflected in March, but under the promotion of policy synergy, the economy will be further repaired in the first quarter.
It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter will be around 5.5%.
Zhou Maohua said that my country's macroeconomic performance in the first quarter is expected to have the following characteristics: First, the recovery of domestic demand is relatively obvious. At present, there are signs that, with the gradual effect of the policy, the property market and automobile sales are gradually recovering, and infrastructure investment continues to improve. It is expected to drive the recovery of domestic demand. and stronger.
Second, prices are expected to remain moderate.
Domestic production and supply continued to outpace demand in the first quarter, domestic consumer necessities were adequately supplied, and grains were harvested year after year.
At the same time, the effect of cracking down on hoarding and malicious speculation appeared.
The domestic monetary policy remained stable, focusing on precise quality and efficiency.
Third, the scissors gap between CPI and PPI continued to narrow.
On the one hand, the combination of domestic policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices continues to exert force. The Federal Reserve accelerates the recovery of excess liquidity. The impact of the global epidemic on commodity supply and shipping logistics is expected to gradually weaken. Coupled with the impact of the high base last year, it is expected that the PPI will show a high year-on-year decline. On the one hand, with the steady recovery of domestic demand, it may lead to a slight rise in the price center, but the overall level will remain moderate.
(Securities Daily)