(Finance and Economics) The cumulative increase of nearly 5% in two days, the international oil price hit a 7-year high

　　China News Agency, Beijing, February 5 (Reporter Pang Wuji) In the past two days, international oil prices have continuously exceeded the $90 and $92 per barrel mark, hitting new highs since October 2014.

　　Since the end of last year, international oil prices have soared.

On February 3, local time, the price of light sweet crude oil futures (WTI) for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $90.27 per barrel, an increase of 2.28%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery closed at $91.11 a barrel, an increase of 1.83%.

　　But the rally didn't stop.

As of the close on the 4th local time, light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.04 to close at $92.31 a barrel, or 2.26%.

Brent crude futures for April delivery rose $2.16, or 2.37%, to settle at $93.27 a barrel in London.

Over the past two days, international oil prices rose nearly 5%.

　　At present, the market's prediction of the future trend of international oil prices is very different.

Since the beginning of this year, a number of international investment banks have raised their forecasts for oil prices.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to hit $100 a barrel in the third quarter of this year.

Morgan Stanley also expects crude to hit $100 a barrel later this year.

　　But there are also some forecasts that international oil prices lack the basis for a long-term high.

Zhong Jian, vice president of Zhuochuang Information and dean of the research institute, said that according to a survey of nearly 200 exploration companies and oil service companies by a US company, when planning capital expenditures in 2022, these companies' plans are based on the average WTI price. Made for $64 a barrel.

In addition, the U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) predicted the average price of WTI this year at only about US$71 in early 2022, and the average price forecast for 2023 was further reduced to US$64.

　　He pointed out that at present, the prediction of oil prices reaching more than US$100 in 2022 mainly comes from financial institutions such as investment banks and banks.

During the same period, the prediction of oiliness by real companies and government agencies was relatively calm.

　　The research team of Zhuochuang Information believes that although international oil prices continue to fluctuate periodically, they have never experienced such large-scale and high-frequency turbulence.

This also means that the original market ecosystem of politics, economy, society and finance that used to play a role in international oil prices for a long time is undergoing historic changes, and a new oil market pattern is coming.

The agency also believes that 2022 must be a year of turbulent oil prices, and extreme prices and sudden fluctuations will be a high probability.

　　However, the agency believes that the current sharp rise in international oil prices is inconsistent with the downward trend in risk asset prices. Therefore, there is a great possibility of a correction in oil prices.

At the same time, the supply in the global oil market is not in short supply, and the supply will be further abundant in the future and present the most balanced period of supply and demand.

In addition, in the process of rapid rise in oil prices, long funds have not been matched accordingly, and the speculative bubble in oil prices is too large.

The above main fundamental factors do not support the continued rise in oil prices.

(Finish)