On Friday, February 4, world oil prices reached their highest level in more than seven years.

During trading, the cost of crude Brent on the ICE exchange in London rose by 2.1% to $93.04 per barrel.

At the same time, quotations of the American brand WTI grew by 2.2% to $92.24 per barrel.

The last time similar indicators could be observed in October 2014.

The observed rise in oil prices is largely due to the growing deficit in the global hydrocarbon market.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, expressed this point of view in an interview with RT.

“Most countries are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions.

Against this background, the volume of cargo transportation is increasing, and the mobility of citizens is increasing.

As a result, more oil is needed.

According to the latest estimates, all global segments of energy consumption, with the exception of jet fuel, have already recovered to the level of 2019,” Yushkov said.

Although global demand for fuel continues to grow steadily, the supply of energy raw materials in the world remains limited, experts emphasize.

The largest oil exporting countries continue to gradually increase hydrocarbon production, but current production volumes are still not enough to cover the global deficit, analysts are sure.

“The other day, the OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil production in March by a total of 400,000 barrels per day.

However, the likelihood that production will reach this level is low.

For about a year now, the alliance has been producing oil less than the quotas.

The need to reduce production in 2020, combined with low investment in technical equipment and oil exploration, has led to a drop in free production capacity, ”Finam FG analyst Alexander Potavin told RT.

Recall that the OPEC + agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia.

As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market.

Such a policy should keep oil prices from sharp collapses.

In 2020, due to the massive introduction of quarantine restrictions in the world and the collapse in demand for oil, OPEC+ countries reduced oil production to balance the market and stabilize prices.

In the summer of 2021, as the global economy recovered from the effects of the pandemic, fuel consumption began to rise noticeably.

Under these conditions, since August, the participants in the deal began to gradually increase hydrocarbon production by 400,000 barrels per day per month.

“The countries of the OPEC+ alliance like the current high prices for raw materials.

Therefore, voluntarily investing in an additional increase in our production - higher than the quotas require - now there is no big reason, ”added Alexander Potavin.

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In addition, at the moment, adverse weather conditions in the United States have a negative impact on the supply of oil in the world.

Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, told RT about this.

“Oil quotes were supported by news of frosts in Texas.

The current situation risks affecting the region's oil and gas infrastructure and leading to supply disruptions.

Also, colder weather can lead to increased fuel consumption,” Galaktionov explained.

Under the influence of the climatic factor in the United States, oil reserves began to noticeably decrease.

Over the week, commercial reserves of raw materials in the United States decreased by 1 million barrels to 415.1 million, according to a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

It is noteworthy that market participants expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

According to Igor Galaktionov, if the deficit persists on the world oil market, the cost of a barrel of Brent may reach $100 per barrel by the end of March.

Igor Yushkov adheres to a similar assessment.

“Prices are really capable of reaching $100 per barrel if there are no changes in the market.

A certain decline in quotes, of course, is possible in the event of the emergence of new market factors or an increase in geopolitical risks.

However, until the end of 2022, oil will continue to be traded at relatively high levels,” Yushkov said.

Prospects for the ruble

The Russian foreign exchange market reacted positively to the rise in oil prices to record highs.

At the auction on Friday, the dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by more than 1% to 75.65 rubles, and the euro rate - by 0.7% to 86.71 rubles.

The official exchange rates of the Central Bank on February 5 were set at 76.05 rubles per dollar and 87.12 rubles per euro.

“Expensive oil opens up good prospects for the ruble.

I think that in the near future the dollar exchange rate will remain in a wide range - 70-80 rubles.

This is a comfortable range for our government.

The fact is that a too strong ruble reduces the filling of the budget, but the dollar above 80 rubles creates social tension.

Therefore, it is possible that in the medium term, if geopolitical risks decrease, the dollar exchange rate will tend to 74 rubles,” suggested Igor Yushkov.

According to the expert, maintaining oil prices at high levels will allow faster replenishment of the budget and the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

Thus, the state will be able to allocate more money for social spending, the specialist noted.

“For Russia, as an exporter of oil, there is now a rather favorable situation on the market.

We increase the volume of deliveries and sell raw materials at a high price.

This creates the possibility of additional maneuvers for the authorities.

For example, they may not increase the tax burden on businesses if they already have large oil revenues,” Yushkov emphasized.