The rise in energy prices continues, with consequences for consumers in Germany.
On Friday, the price of the American oil grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached its highest level since autumn 2014. The North Sea oil grade Brent was listed just below its long-term high.
In the morning, a barrel (159 liters) of Brent cost $91.39.
That was 28 cents more than the day before.
The price of a barrel of WTI rose 43 cents to $90.70.
Christian Siedenbiedel
Editor in Business.
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"The trigger for the recent price increase is a cold snap in Texas, which fuels concerns about production outages in America's largest shale oil deposit, the Permian Basin," write the analysts at Commerzbank.
The more expensive oil is also boosting the global rise in energy prices, which in January had also caused inflation to rise significantly in Germany and the euro zone and made life considerably more expensive for consumers.
ECB President Christine Lagarde put the share of the energy price shock in the high inflation rates at around 50 percent.
Impact of the Ukraine Crisis
Oil prices are currently being driven by a number of developments.
A tight supply and solid demand despite the Omicron wave provide basic support.
Added to this is the recently weaker dollar, which makes crude oil traded in dollars arithmetically cheaper for many investors and stimulates their demand.
The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are added as a political factor.
Since Russia is a major crude oil producer, oil traders are currently calculating with a risk premium in the event of an escalation of the conflict.
Numerous bank analysts have recently raised their forecasts for the development of oil prices and expect prices to be in some cases over 100 dollars a barrel for this year.
On the oil market there is talk of a "risk premium" on the price due to the Ukraine crisis.
All-time high fuel prices
The higher oil price is also driving up all kinds of energy prices in Germany.
For example, for fuel: 100 liters of heating oil cost 93.35 euros on Friday when 3,000 liters were purchased, as reported by the Internet portal Heizoel24, to which 500 oil dealers report their prices.
That was the highest price in almost ten years.
The sharp increase in energy prices can also be felt at the petrol stations.
Super petrol had already reached new historic highs on Tuesday and then again on Wednesday, most recently a liter cost an average of 1.724 euros.
On Wednesday, diesel cost an average of 1.649 euros per liter, which was also the highest average price of all time.
The electricity price for consumers in Germany also reached a new all-time high in January.
As the Internet portal Check24 reported, a model household with an annual consumption of 5,000 kilowatt hours paid an average of 2,130 euros for this amount.
This corresponds to an average price of 42.6 cents per kilowatt hour.
What's next?
"We expect energy prices to continue to rise," said Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, of the FAZ: "There is still upside potential." Goldman's raw materials team led by Jeff Currie forecast an oil price for the North Sea variety Brent of $105 by the end of the year .
"That would make energy more expensive," said Hatzius.
However, the impact on the inflation rate is no longer quite as significant when the oil price rises from just under $90 to $105 as when it climbs from around zero to $90, as has been the case over the past two years.
If the Ukraine conflict escalates, DZ Bank also believes oil prices of $120 a barrel are possible, bank analysts write in a recent study.
"In our main scenario, the diplomatic negotiations will be successful, but the process will take longer," writes the bank.
This means that the price of oil will remain high for the time being.
Commerzbank now feels compelled to raise its oil price forecast.
"For the current quarter, we expect a Brent oil price of 90 instead of 80 dollars per barrel," write the analysts.
"The reason is the risk premium, which has risen sharply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is only likely to decline slowly." For this reason, the bank sees the oil price still significantly higher at 85 instead of 75 dollars in the second quarter.
The shrinking free production capacities are one reason why the bank sees the Brent oil price in the second half of the year a little higher than before, namely at 80 instead of 75 dollars.