On January 28, A shares ended January 2022 with a "И" (Cyrillic letter) trend.

Although the first month of this year did not start well, according to 30-year historical data, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in February was 70%, and the average monthly increase was 2.92%, ranking third in 12 months.

　　Industry insiders said that after the recent gradual release of market risks, February will usher in a safe window period before the centralized disclosure of performance reports. With consideration of the timing of credit issuance, A-shares are expected to rebound in February.

Some brokerages even believe that February will be the best stage for the first half of the year.

　　"Red February" has a high probability

　　In January 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 10.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 12.45%.

However, judging from historical data, the Shanghai Composite Index was mostly "red" in February.

　　A reporter from China Securities Journal counted the data of the Shanghai Composite Index for the past 30 years from 1992 to 2021 and found that February was the month with the highest probability of rising among the 12 months.

In the 30 years of statistics, the Shanghai Composite Index rose in February in 21 years, with a probability of 70%.

In addition, the average increase in February was 2.92%, ranking third among 12 months, after May (an increase of 6.63%) and April (an increase of 4.37%).

　　Zheshang Securities strategist Wang Yang's replay data also supports this.

Its statistics show that since 2000, the probability of a rise in all A in February is close to 80%.

　　Or the best stage of the first half of the year

　　The start of the A-share market in 2022 was unexpected, and the three major indexes were all adjusted.

After the Spring Festival, A-shares will start trading in February. Will the market rebound by then?

　　In addition to the above-mentioned review data indicating that the probability of rising in February is relatively high, Wang Yang said that the risk of holding groups in the early stage has been released, and some sectors have even experienced oversold in the short term.

It is expected that the market may usher in a staged rebound in February, and small-cap stocks are expected to dominate.

　　From the perspective of time window, Fan Jituo, a strategic analyst at Cinda Securities, said that from the perspective of annual report disclosure progress over the years, most of the time is concentrated in March to April, and the time window in February is relatively safe.

　　Fan Jituo said that although many investors have been discussing the turmoil in spring and the New Year's Eve since the end of last year, historically, the most certain period of turmoil is often only in February.

Therefore, A shares may have a technical rebound in February, and this month may be the best stage in the first half of the year.

　　从历史规律来看，银河证券分析师李卓睿表示，春季行情开启前市场一般都会经历一段时间下跌，前期市场下跌幅度一定程度上决定春季行情反弹力度。另外，政策面偏乐观是春季行情开启的充分条件，历年央行释放流动性、信贷数据回升等都是春季市场上行动力，而当前正处于稳增长政策逐步发力的阶段。目前外围市场风险已释放一部分，A股估值也已跌至较低位置。后市来看，待投资者情绪企稳、部分赛道股风险逐步释放后，稳增长带动的春季行情或逐步开启。

　　行业配置方面，银河证券建议关注两条主线：一是重要会议受益题材，例如数字经济、新能源等；二是稳增长政策受益板块，如建材、机械等。万联证券建议关注消费、基建板块以及低估值金融板块。