<Anchor> This
is a friendly economic time.
Today (28th) I will be with reporter Han Ji-yeon.
You said apartment prices in Seoul fell a lot?
<Reporter>
Although the upward trend has slowed since the end of last year, this is the first time in 1 year and 8 months that it has fallen. Apartment prices in Seoul fell 0.01% this week compared to last week.
Until last week, there were areas that fell by classification, but the overall Seoul rate rose by 0.01%.
However, a growing number of reports of bearish trades brought down the overall average.
Apartment prices fell in 11 out of 25 districts.
Six districts were consistent.
Apartment prices in Gyeonggi-do, which increased by 0.01% last week, also stopped rising this week, the first time in two years and five months.
The Jeonse market also turned downward for the first time in two years and six months, with Seoul holding steady, and Gyeonggi-do and Incheon dropping 0.02% and 0.06%, respectively, to minus 0.02% of the total jeonse price in the metropolitan area.
The subscription fever, which had been going well, seems to have waned, and the competition rate for subscription in the metropolitan area is 17.7 to 1, which is significantly lower than 29.7 to 1 in January last year.
<Anchor>
There are many reasons, but should it be said that the government's loan regulation has had an effect on the fall in apartment prices?
<Reporter>
Tightening the money line is not a positive direction, but it can be seen that the effect is showing.
The fall in house prices is due to the recent drop in transaction volume.
Last year, apartment transactions in Seoul were the lowest ever at 1,88, which is lower than in December 2008, during the financial crisis.
Since August of last year, regulations on mortgage loans have been tightened in earnest and loan interest rates have risen, increasing the burden on housing purchases.
In addition, as the US is also tightening money lines, increased market uncertainty also had an impact.
It is impossible to know where the real estate policy will go as the presidential election variables overlap.
The 'trade cliff', which neither sells nor buys, continued for several months as the wait-and-see situation intensified.
<Anchor>
What is expected of the future?
<Reporter>
It is expected that the weak trend will continue for the time being.
Seven out of ten real estate market experts expect house prices to fall or remain at current levels this year.
I came up with this view.
This is the result of a survey conducted by KDI at the end of last month on 500 experts including professors and researchers. 51.3% of the respondents said that real estate prices will fall this year, about half.
Among the downtrend forecasts, we saw the highest possibility of a slight decline, i.e. below 5%.
The most cited reasons for forecasting a decline in the sale price were the recognition that the sale price had already risen as soon as it was going up and the adjustment due to the rapid rise in a short period of time.
The reasons were followed by interest rate hikes and financial regulations.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a more drastic austerity policy.
As it was predicted that interest rates would be raised four or more times, it became inevitable to raise the domestic base rate further.
Originally, it was expected that the base rate would be raised twice this year.
However, after raising the base rate once on the 14th, there are also analyzes that it may raise the base rate two or three more times.
There is even a forecast that action can be taken next month as early as possible, and the main loan interest rate, which is currently in the mid 5% range, is highly likely to rise to the 6% range.
As a result, the real estate market is expected to remain weak until at least the presidential election in the first half of the year.
It seems to be a good idea for those waiting to buy before making a purchase decision while watching the market movement.
<Anchor>
So, in general, I think there are many prospects for the decline.
However, just because the price falls, it does not mean that the market is stable.
In the end, if the market is going to stabilize, government policies must be reflected. I think the current loan regulation, then the right to renew the contract, then the holding tax, and the strengthening of the transaction tax. Could I have some influence, how about you?
<Reporter>
Although house prices are stagnating right now, it seems difficult to guarantee stability in the future.
Experts also underestimated the effect of the government's real estate policy, but expressed an opinion that it was negative in the 50-60% range in both the sale and jeonse markets.
In particular, he pointed out that additional policies on the jeonse market need to be supplemented, but in July of this year, the cheonsei rent expires with the right to apply for contract renewal.
They suggested the need for measures to prevent the jeonset price anxiety.
In addition, about 50% of those who answered that it is necessary to ease all taxes such as acquisition tax, property tax, and capital gains tax in order to stabilize the trading market in the future.