In December 2021, the average amount of a mortgage loan in Russia fell by 13.5% at once, from a record 3.7 million to 3.2 million rubles.

Such data on Thursday, January 27, was presented by the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI).

According to the organization, the average size of mortgages decreased the most in the Khabarovsk Territory (by 42.5%) and in the Irkutsk Region (by 41.4%).

In addition, a noticeable decrease was noted in the Krasnoyarsk (by 28.8%), Primorsky (by 27%) and Stavropol Territories (by 22.6%), as well as in the Leningrad Region (by 20.5%).

“In general, this is due to an increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia and the subsequent increase in market rates, which increase the cost of loans.

In addition, one should not discount the pre-New Year promotions of developers that reduce the cost of housing at many construction sites,” said Alexei Volkov, Marketing Director of the NBKI.

Recall that in 2021, as part of the fight against inflation, the Central Bank raised its key rate seven times and raised it from 4.25 to 8.5% per annum.

The value was the highest since October 2017.

Moreover, as early as 2022, the rate increase may continue.

Elvira Nabiullina, chairman of the Central Bank, did not rule out such a possibility earlier.

“Most likely, we have not yet reached the tightness of monetary conditions that is needed to bring inflation back to the target next year.

Therefore, we admit the possibility of an additional increase in the rate at the next meetings.

But the situation may change,” Nabiullina said during a press conference in December.

Traditionally, banks closely monitor changes in the key rate of the Central Bank and, based on the decisions made by the regulator, independently determine the options for offerings for their financial products.

Thus, as a result of the actions of the Central Bank over the past year, the average market mortgage rate for new buildings increased from 7.9 to 9.84% per annum, and for finished housing - from 8.13 to 9.83% per annum.

This is evidenced by the materials of the company "DOM.RF".

“Rising loans are a cold shower for the Russian housing market.

An increase in interest rates leads to a decrease in consumer demand, and this, in turn, may put pressure on the cost per square meter, ”Irina Radchenko, vice president of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate, told RT.

According to her, in 2021, housing prices in Russia increased by an average of 20-30%.

One of the reasons for such dynamics was precisely the rush demand in the real estate market.

In particular, against the backdrop of high inflation and relatively low rates on bank deposits, Russians have been more active in investing their savings in real estate, Radchenko said.

However, according to the Central Bank, today the interest on deposits in Russian banks has reached its maximum level since 2019 and now averages about 7.7% per annum.

At the same time, according to the forecast of the National Credit Ratings rating agency, mortgage rates in the country will continue to grow in 2022 and may rise up to 10% per annum.

Under these conditions, experts interviewed by RT expect a further decline in demand and a slowdown in housing price growth.

“I think the situation will continue to stabilize, and the average rate of real estate appreciation will already be less than in 2021.

In addition, if earlier the demand for square meters was actively fueled by preferential mortgages, now it is no longer in such demand as it was a year ago.

The measure was anti-crisis in nature and caused a stir, so everyone who wanted to use it has already done it, ”said Konstantin Aprelev, vice president of the Russian Guild of Realtors, in an interview with RT.

  • AGN "Moscow"

  • © Alexander Avilov

According to the NKR forecast, in 2022 the cost per square meter in new houses may increase by at least 8-10%.

The Russian authorities, in turn, will monitor the availability of real estate prices for the population.

This was previously stated by Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Marat Khusnullin.

According to him, an important role in this issue will be played by the growth of real estate supply.

Thus, in 2021 in Russia, the volume of housing commissioning in Russia exceeded the planned levels by 15% and reached 90 million square meters.

m. The value was the highest for the entire post-Soviet period.

At the same time, the authorities intend to further increase this figure.

“Today we have goals set by presidential decree.

We want to reach the volume of 120 million square meters.

m per year of housing construction, and keep it at this volume in the coming years.

That is, it should be built in the country over the next ten years, 1 billion square meters.

m of housing.

This is every fifth square meter of housing in the country should be new,” Khusnullin noted.