剑南春近期陷入争议当中，一句标榜“中国名酒销售前三”的广告语引发业界质疑。
红星资本局发现，剑南春这句广告语近期在各大城市楼宇电梯广告不间断轮播。而白酒行业除了贵州茅台(600519.SH)、五粮液(000858.SZ)两大龙头外，其他酒企争抢“老三”位置已经多年，营收暂时落后的剑南春宣称“销售前三”或涉虚假宣传。
剑南春并非“老三”，旗下单品居前三
在上市酒企中，贵州茅台、五粮液是绝对龙头。茅台预计2021年营收在1090亿元左右；五粮液还未预告业绩，但集团2021年总营收已突破1400亿元。茅五两位带头大哥的地位难以撼动，其他酒企只好为争抢“老三”而努力。
2020年洋河股份(002304.SZ)以211亿元的营收位列行业第三，2021年三季度为219亿元，已经创下历史新高；山西汾酒(600809.SH)也在2021年三季度收获172亿元营收，全年预计也将突破200亿大关。洋河、汾酒两家的营收均领先于剑南春。
如果按照剑南春“销售前三”的广告语，这意味着其已经突破200亿元大关。红星资本局就此致电剑南春相关人士但未获得证实，仅表示“前三”的广告语是以其大单品“水晶剑”口径。
来自中国食品工业协会一份“全国白酒名酒品牌销售情况”表格显示，位居前三的为飞天茅台、五粮液、剑南春。但这个排名仅指名酒的单品，如“飞天茅台”；剑南春也是仅指其核心大单品“水晶剑”，严格讲应该是“水晶剑”进入了名酒销售前三。
据红星资本局了解，2020年“水晶剑”大单品成功实现销售额130亿元，仅次于飞天茅台、经典五粮液(普五)；2021年“水晶剑”大单品已经成功突破150亿元，成为支撑剑南春200亿规模的核心大单品。
Liquor industry analyst Cai Xuefei said that Jiannanchun has been a typical example of "low-key growth" in recent years, and its core single product "Crystal Sword" has gained a monopoly advantage in the sub-high-end liquor market.
In the era of upgrading China's alcohol consumption structure, Jiannanchun, as an old famous wine, has highlighted its high-quality characteristics and brand historical value. It is one of the biggest beneficiary brands from the consumption structure upgrade.
Judging from the market retail price of "Crystal Sword", although the price has been raised several times, the current 52-degree "Crystal Sword" terminal retail price is still more than 400 yuan, the price is relatively close to the people, and the price of other famous wines can be regarded as a conscience price.
Compared with "Moutai is not for drinking", Jiannanchun is really drinkable by consumers, and it has long been one of the famous wines with the highest bottle opening rate in catering channels.
Occupy 80% of the market share in Mianzhu production area
Since Jiannanchun is not a listed company, its financial situation is far less open and transparent than other listed wine companies.
So, what will the sales of Jiannanchun be in 2021?
Where can you rank in the liquor industry?
The answer is that entering the top five in the industry is a little off, and the top ten is very stable.
According to the People's Daily, from January to October 2021, Jiannanchun Group achieved a total industrial output value of 17.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%; taxes paid 4.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75%, these two indicators have exceeded 2020 in the first 10 months. year-round level.
But this is the group's data including non-alcoholic industries.
If calculated from the output value, after the last two months of Jiannanchun's sprint, the annual total output value is likely to reach or approach the 20 billion yuan mark.
Such achievements have surpassed that of most listed wine companies, indicating that Jiannanchun has returned to the top camp of the liquor industry, but still lags behind other leading wine companies.
In the Mianzhu production area of Sichuan where Jiannanchun is located, there are 59 liquor enterprises, including 21 enterprises above designated size.
From January to November 2021, the city's liquor enterprises above designated size achieved a total industrial output value of 22.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%; realized operating income of 15.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; realized profit of 2.499 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; realized profits and taxes 5.646 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%.
This also means that the Jiannanchun family accounts for about 80% of the market share in the Mianzhu production area.
There are also well-known wine companies such as Mianchun, Dongsheng, Fenghuang, Du Fu, Tianyun, Jianxi and Bitanchun in the Mianzhu producing area, but their strength is relatively weak.
目前，剑南春3万吨原酒扩能项目正如火如荼建设中，该项目总投资30亿元。按照绵竹市的要求，要争取再造一个“剑南春”。按照规划，绵竹将支持龙头企业剑南春做大做强，发挥品牌引领作用。其中，剑南春“十四五”末要实现营收250亿元，其他酒企实现营收70亿至100亿元。
能否重拾“茅五剑”的辉煌？
如今川酒“六朵金花”大多早已上市，但剑南春因为当年复杂的改制问题，各种遗留问题太多，导致长期都是“只闻楼梯响，不见人下来”。在白酒行业估值持续飙升之际，全国范围已经很难找到更优质的未上市白酒标的，这些年剑南春也让各路资本垂涎三尺，经历了一次次绯闻，但一次次又化为泡影。
剑南春在巅峰时期曾与茅台、五粮液齐名，至今很多人印象中还停留在“茅五剑”时代，它是民间在几十年消费过程中的口碑流传，可见其深入人心。
然而“铁打的茅五，流水的老三"，用来形容中国白酒行业格局再合适不过。茅台、五粮液常年霸占白酒第一、第二的位置。但对于“老三”的认定，多年来市场也没有统一论调，主要是这个位置谁都坐不稳，坐上去也会被拉下来。
剑南春在发展过程中先后被洋河股份、泸州老窖(000568.SZ)、山西汾酒等陆续赶超，排名也一掉再掉，以至于后来市场上就有了“茅五洋”、“茅五泸”、“茅五汾”等各种说法。
红星资本局对比龙头酒企的营收规模，在统一为集团口径后，茅台集团、五粮液集团营收均已是千亿级别，并瞄准了世界500强的目标。剑南春集团200亿左右的营收显然还难以望其项背，甚至大幅落后于泸州老窖集团，后者2021年的营收超过600亿元。
尽管剑南春在次高端领域实力强劲，但高端产品线打造与龙头酒企相比还有较大差距。加之次高端阵营扩容后，舍得、水井坊(600779.SH)、郎酒、习酒、西凤等全国性名酒进一步下沉渠道，也导致次高端市场份额不断被蚕食。
有业内专家表示，由于中国白酒龙头地位已经高度固化，剑南春想要夺回辉煌时期一线品牌，难度将会非常大。
红星新闻记者 李伟铭