The fourth-quarter disclosure of public funds is coming to an end, and the fund manager's position in the liquor sector has surfaced.
The Securities Times reporter found that during the fourth quarter, many star funds reduced their holdings of liquor stocks. E Fund Manager Zhang Kun, Invesco Great Wall Fund Manager Liu Yanchun, China Merchants Fund Manager Hou Hao and other "top-tier" Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have reduced their holdings to varying degrees.
During the fourth quarter, liquor stocks rebounded to varying degrees, but the star fund managers sold in such a coordinated manner, which may cause the market to worry about the liquor market.
In this regard, analysts pointed out that since the fourth quarter, the sporadic spread of the epidemic may affect the judgment of fund managers on the liquor industry, but under the normalization of prevention and control, it is expected that the impact time and degree may be reduced, and wine companies are still relatively successful. High certainty.
The scale falls below one hundred billion
Liu Yanchun reduces holdings of liquor stocks
On January 24, the four-quarter reports of the six funds managed by Liu Yanchun were all released. According to the statistics of the Securities Times reporter, as of the fourth quarter of 2021, the total scale of funds under management by Liu Yanchun was 97.85 billion yuan, which fell below the 100 billion mark.
It is worth noting that after the scale reached 116.301 billion yuan in the second quarter of last year, Liu Yanchun's management scale in the third quarter of last year shrank by 13.386 billion yuan to 102.915 billion yuan.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Liu Yanchun's management scale shrank again by 5.065 billion yuan to 97.85 billion yuan.
In terms of products, the emerging growth scale of Invesco Great Wall has shrunk the most, from 52.47 billion yuan in the third quarterly report to 51.694 billion yuan, and the scale has shrunk by 2.576 billion yuan in a single quarter.
The decline in performance and the redemption of the fund by Christian Democrats is the main reason for the decline in its size.
Data show that for the whole year of last year, Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth lost 9.94%, of which, it lost 13.04% in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, against the backdrop of the rebound of liquor stocks, the fund still lost 1.44%.
At the same time, Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth has also been redeemed by Christian Democrats. Data shows that during the fourth quarter, the fund’s total subscription shares were 2.437 billion shares, total redemption shares were 3.073 billion shares, and net redemption shares were 637 million shares.
As Liu Yanchun's largest fund product under management, Invesco Great Wall has reduced its holdings in several liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye, which it holds in the fourth quarter. Among them, Luzhou Laojiao has reduced its holdings the most. up to 21.31%.
However, after a large reduction in holdings, Kweichow Moutai is still the fund's largest holding stock, with a stock market value of 5.046 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter, accounting for 9.76% of the fund's net value.
Regarding the market operation in 2021, Liu Yanchun said that in 2021, due to factors such as credit crunch, repeated epidemics, and industrial policy adjustments, the economy will rise and fall.
The impact of the new crown epidemic on various industries is significantly different. The supply and demand relationship of some industrial chains is out of balance in stages. The superimposed supply contraction caused by the dual control policy of energy consumption has significantly increased the cost pressure in the middle and downstream links of the industrial chain.
New energy-related fields encouraged by policies are rare industries with high prosperity.
Looking forward to the future, Liu Yanchun believes that 2022 is likely to be the beginning of the end of the new crown epidemic.
From a global perspective, the investment side that lags behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal.
In the early stage, my country took advantage of the time window for the rapid increase in export share to fully reduce the macro leverage ratio, adjust the economic structure, and digest long-term risks, laying a good foundation for sustainable economic development in the post-epidemic era.
At this stage, my country's economic growth is already below the potential growth rate. It is expected that easing credit, stabilizing growth, and boosting domestic demand will be the focus of this year's policy.
From inter-cyclical to counter-cyclical, from driving external demand to boosting domestic demand, the marginal prosperity will no longer be scarce, funds will tend to be dispersed, and the market style will be rebalanced.
Those great companies with short-term headwinds are already extremely valuable.
Short-term economic fluctuations affect investors' risk appetite in stages, and the impact on the company's intrinsic value is actually minimal.
What's more, with the gradual development of counter-cyclical policies, the cyclical downturn is expected to end and usher in an upward turning point, and many industries will usher in a reversal of prosperity.
Industries and companies with long-term and short-term logical resonance are expected to usher in good performance in the new year.
Finally, Liu Yanchun reassured investors that the most difficult stage of investing has passed.
Be patient and the value will always come back.
Hou Hao reduced his holdings in liquor stocks
Hou Hao, who was still aggressively attacking liquor in the third quarter of last year, suddenly reversed his style after entering the fourth quarter, and reduced his holdings in many liquor stocks.
According to the quarterly report released by the China Merchants China Securities Baijiu Index Securities Investment Fund managed by Hou Hao, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe Co., Ltd., Gujing Gongjiu, and Shuijingfang have reduced their holdings by more than 20%. , the reduction of Gujing tribute wine is more than 30%.
As of the end of the fourth quarter, the China Merchants CSI Baijiu Index Securities Investment Fund managed by Hou Hao held Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, etc. with a market value of over 10 billion, but compared with the end of the third quarter, they all decreased significantly.
Regarding the operation ideas of the fund, Hou Hao said that the social zero data has been repaired throughout the year, and the social zero food and beverage consumption, especially the consumption of tobacco and alcohol, has increased.
During the reporting period, liquor increased, some sub-high-end performances were better, structural differentiation, and the market responded differently to the price system and some disturbance factors, resulting in increased fluctuations in some time.
The Fund's benchmark index, the China Securities Liquor Index, rose 5.79% during the reporting period.
Regarding the operation of the Fund, a certain position ratio has been maintained, and dividends have been distributed, basically completing the tracking of the benchmark.
Hou Hao pointed out that the current Spring Festival is approaching, and the epidemic situation has fluctuated, especially in Henan, Shaanxi, Tianjin and other key liquor consumption areas.
From the perspective of consumption scenarios, it mainly affects the consumption of banquets, but it is expected to make up in the future, and with reference to the situation of the Spring Festival in the previous two years, the impact on the sales of famous wines is limited.
Hou Hao said that according to the channel tracking, the high-end wine approval price remained stable, the Spring Festival payment rhythm was relatively good, and the fundamentals were still relatively positive. The leading companies have stronger channel control and risk control. Resilience, the structural growth of famous wine companies is more certain, and the crowding-out effect of the industry will continue.
Looking forward to the future, Hou Hao said that in the short term, it is necessary to track the situation of epidemic prevention and control, as well as the volume and price of the peak season.
After recent adjustments, the valuation of the liquor sector has fallen back to a reasonable allocation range, and consumption is resilient under the expectation of steady economic growth. As time goes on, the liquor sector still has a good allocation value under the trend of consumption upgrades and increased concentration.
Are there still opportunities for liquor stocks?
Since the beginning of last year, liquor stocks have adjusted one after another, and some high-end liquor stocks have adjusted more significantly. After entering the fourth quarter of 2021, liquor stocks have rebounded. However, with the sporadic spread of the epidemic recently, the market is worried that liquor consumption may be affected. Liquor stocks pulled back again.
In this regard, Guotai Junan believes that the result of the point-like recurrence of the epidemic is differentiation rather than a comprehensive impact.
In terms of price, the demand for high-end business and gifts is the most resilient, and it is expected to maintain steady growth. The overall inventory level of the sub-high-end is low and the sales performance is good.
From the perspective of the scene, the biggest impact of epidemic prevention and control lies in large-scale drinking gatherings. Under the trend of miniaturization of drinking gatherings, the basic sales volume is still smooth.
Guotai Junan said that under the normalization of prevention and control, it is expected that the impact time and extent may be reduced. The recurrence of the epidemic in Henan will have less impact on Zhengzhou, the main consumer market. The final impact of prevention and control has reached an inflection point and is expected to remain within 10%. Good foundation.
In the early stage, the adjusted valuation level of the liquor sector has been significantly digested, and it has now entered the allocation range.
华创证券也表示，短期看，疫情影响趋于钝化，动销端高端酒稳健，次高端尤其是区域龙头表现较佳，局部区域及品牌不乏亮点，酒企开门红仍有较高确定性，业绩仍将支撑。近期板块估值回落，已经又到布局良机时点。
具体来看，华创证券认为，茅台收入加速确定性强，且市场化改革有望持续落地，长线价值凸显。汾酒新帅预计延续改革方向，切中品牌提升关键要点，高增长仍具延续性。老窖内外部士气正盛，国窖品牌势能强劲带动高增长。五粮液千元高端品牌壁垒护航增长确定性，关注股权激励推进带来的股价催化剂。