IMF cuts global growth forecast for 2022 to 4.4%

  Xinhua News Agency, Washington, January 25 (Reporter Xu Yuan Gao Climbing) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the "World Economic Outlook Report" on the 25th, predicting that the global economy will grow by 4.4% in 2022, down from the forecast value in October last year. 0.5 percentage points.

  The IMF believes that the global economic situation in 2022 is more fragile than previously expected, due to the widespread spread of the mutated new coronavirus Omicron, which has led to the re-introduction of restrictions on the movement of people in various economies around the world, rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions. Inflation levels exceeded expectations and spread to a wider range, etc.

  The IMF predicts that if the factors that drag on economic growth gradually disappear in the second half of 2022, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2023, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.

  Specifically, the economy of developed economies is expected to grow by 3.9% this year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast; next year, it will grow by 2.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous forecast.

The economy of emerging market and developing economies is expected to grow by 4.8% this year, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous forecast; next year, it will grow by 4.7%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast.

  Among the major economies, the US economy is expected to grow by 4% and 2.6% respectively this year and next; the euro zone economy will grow by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively; the Chinese economy will grow by 4.8% and 5.2% respectively.

  The IMF believes that global economic growth faces downside risks.

Higher interest rates in advanced economies will expose emerging market and developing economies to risks in terms of capital flows, monetary and fiscal positions, and debt.

In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions will lead to other global risks, while increased climate change means a higher chance of severe natural disasters.

  The IMF pointed out that as the epidemic continues to rage, anti-epidemic items such as the new crown vaccine are still crucial, and economies need to strengthen production, improve domestic supply and enhance international fairness in distribution.

At the same time, fiscal policies of economies should prioritize public health and social security spending.

  Gita Gopinath, the first vice president of the IMF, published a blog post on the same day, saying that policymakers in various economies need to closely monitor various economic data, prepare for emergencies, communicate in a timely manner and implement response policies.

At the same time, all economies should carry out effective international cooperation to ensure that the world can get rid of the epidemic this year.

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