The Funcas

panel of analysts

believes that

prices will shoot up an average of 3.5%

throughout the year 2022,

1.1 points more

than it had forecast in its latest estimates in

November

, as reported by this Wednesday.

In fact, some of its members are more pessimistic and believe that average inflation in 2022

will be close to 5%

:

Banco Santander

forecasts average inflation of

4.6%

;

Cemex and

CaixaBank Research

point to

4.5%;

and International Financial Analysts (AFI) place it at 4.3%.

Given that other research houses have more moderate estimates,

the panel's joint forecast

leaves average inflation at

3.5%.

"Since the general inflation rate rose to 5.4% in October, especially due to the price of energy products and the recovery of the prices of certain services to pre-pandemic levels,

inflation has not stopped increasing

until reaching a 6.5% interannual rate in December.

These high rates show that

the increase in production costs is being transferred to final consumer prices,"

warns Funcas, who is already detecting second-round effects.

With the expected path of inflation, prices will moderate in the second half of the year, but they will still end up

1.3% higher in December 2022

.

This represents an increase over the increase that has already occurred this year, since in December prices rose by 6.5%.

Regarding

core inflation

-which does not take into account the price of food or energy products, which are traditionally more volatile- it will rise by six tenths, compared to the previous consensus forecast, to

2% annual average

, which will mean

1.2 percentage points more than that registered in 2021.

Given the expected price hike, Funcas analysts believe that

central banks will have no choice but to act,

which will have an impact on interest rates and also on the value of the euro.

"

A pronounced turn of the Federal Reserve

and a greater gradualism on the part of the ECB are anticipated, reflecting the difference in conjunctural positions and, above all, in inflation. In this context, the panelists consider that

market interest rates will continue to increase during the period

The 10-year public debt yield would rise to 0.83% at the end of 2002 (compared to 0.79% in the previous Panel)," they point out

.

Given the shift in monetary policy in the US and the prospect of more pronounced increases in interest rates than in the eurozone, "

the dollar has tended to appreciate against the euro

since the previous Panel. For most panelists, the current price, close to $1.13,

will hold throughout the forecast period."

GDP growth of 5.6% and deficit of 5.4%

The Funcas Panel has also taken the opportunity to update its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy: it believes that the GDP will rebound by

5.6% this year, one tenth less than forecast in the previous panel.

They consider that the growth profile will be

homogeneous throughout all quarters

, with advances of 1% in all except the third, which will be higher.

"National demand will add 4.9 percentage points -two tenths less compared to the November Panel-, with a

rebound in investment,

lower growth in public consumption and a similar result in that of households. The foreign sector will contribute seven tenths", they point out.

For these forecasts, they assume that energy and raw material prices will remain high until spring and then fall;

and that

25,000 million of European Next Generation funds were executed.

The

average annual unemployment rate

would have stood at the end of last year at 15.1% and in

2022 it will drop to 14.2%,

which represents a cut of one and two tenths, respectively, in relation to the forecast of November.

The panelists expect a

public deficit of 7.4% of GDP for 2021

, five tenths less than in the previous Panel.

This forecast is lower than that of the Government Budget Plan, which places the deficit at 8.4% of GDP.

For

2022

, the consensus expects a

deficit of 5.4%,

in this case above the Government forecast (5%).

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