In the last trading week before the Spring Festival holiday, how will the A-share market perform?

  The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities firms. Most of them believe that although emotional factors may still dampen market performance, negative expectations are being digested at an accelerated rate, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching.

At the same time, current investors should not reduce their positions and should gradually increase their positions.

  CICC said that with the Spring Festival approaching, emotional factors may still dampen market performance.

However, market sentiment is also expected to recover as the details of the "stable growth" policy continue to be released, forward-looking indicators may improve and domestic growth gradually stabilizes.

  CITIC Construction Investment Securities pointed out that with the gradual development of the stabilizing growth policy, the negative concerns in the early stage of the market are expected to improve, and investors are advised to cherish and grasp the upcoming counter-offensive market.

At the same time, current investors should not reduce their positions and should gradually increase their positions.

  CITIC Securities believes that the current "policy bottom" has been clarified, the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching.

  In terms of allocation, growth stocks have become a promising direction for many institutions.

  CITIC Construction Investment Securities pointed out that the style of the market’s follow-up counter-offensive will be relatively restrained, and stable growth may be difficult to achieve significant excess returns relative to high-quality growth stocks. High-quality growth stocks supported by quarterly report fundamentals are expected to usher in a rebound.

  However, CICC reminded investors that although the room for a sharp sell-off in the growth style may be relatively limited, they may not be in a hurry to hunt for the bottom. The "steady growth" style is still the main line of the stage and may continue until the end of the first quarter.

CITIC Securities: "Market Bottom" Approaching

  Looking forward to the market outlook, the "policy bottom" has now been clarified, the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is recommended that investors continue to focus on the "two lows" to lay out blue chips and meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.

  First of all, the data shows that the maximum point of economic downward pressure has passed, but the dependence on policy is still strong. The local "two sessions" show that the trend of stabilizing the economy through investment is obvious in various places. The policies of China are forming a synergy, and the "policy bottom" has been clarified.

  Secondly, the emotional catharsis induced by the disintegration of the high-level group is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market is not only deviating from the trend of monetary easing, but also deviating from the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of domestic and foreign capital behavior is also evidence that the "emotional bottom" is coming.

  Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of stable growth and the end of emotional catharsis, it is expected that the market capital will resume inflow, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching.

  配置方面,建议紧扣“稳增长”主线,重点围绕“两个低位”继续布局优质蓝筹,迎接上半年行情起点。具体而言,一是基本面预期仍处于低位的品种,二是估值仍处于相对低位的品种。

中金公司:不着急抄底成长股

  从历史表现看,A股市场在见底回升的周期,往往依次经历“政策底、情绪底、增长底”。目前,“政策底”在2021年9月30日到12月中央经济工作会议之间已确认,“情绪底”可能会在近期至一季度前期左右,而“增长底”则有望在一季度到二季度左右出现。

  展望后市,预计临近春节,情绪因素仍可能抑制市场表现。不过,未来伴随“稳增长”政策细节持续出台、前瞻指标可能改善和国内增长逐步企稳,市场情绪也有望修复。

  配置方面,“稳增长”仍是未来的阶段主线,而成长风格大幅杀跌空间可能相对有限,但可能还不着急抄底,“稳增长”风格可能会持续到一季度末左右。

  在2014年底、2018年底和2020年初三轮明显的“稳增长”发力过程中,初期市场由于情绪惯性原因而表现不佳,成长风格明显下跌。不过,在社融、信贷、基建和房地产等相关前瞻指标有所修复后,市场悲观情绪改善后成长风格往往表现较好。

中信建投证券:当前不应减仓,可逐步加仓

  目前,市场前期的负面担忧,基本已经被市场反应,或将落地或被过度担忧。展望后市,随着稳增长政策逐步发力,市场疑虑有望改善,建议珍惜把握即将来临的反攻行情。配置上,当前投资者不应减仓,应逐步加仓。

  具体而言,市场前期有三大负面担忧:一是担忧国内货币政策迟缓,宽信用效果不佳;二是增量资金不足,新基金发行低于预期;三是美联储鹰派表态,全球流动性收紧预期。国内目前处于宽货币+宽信用的“双宽”周期,后续仍有进一步宽松空间,随着稳增长政策逐步发力,市场疑虑有望改善。

  同时,降息对于分子端的改善和分母端的利好也将逐步显现。此外,春节后市场风险偏好改善,新基金发行回暖,美联储加息预期利空出尽,有望形成春节后到两会前的有利时间窗口。当前对后续市场看法变得更为积极,建议投资者珍惜把握即将来临的反攻行情。

  配置上,后续反攻阶段市场风格将相对收敛。稳增长行情尚能演绎,绝对收益也仍有空间。不过,稳增长相对优质成长股或难再有显著超额收益。短期减仓成长切向稳增长意义不大,有一季报基本面支撑的优质成长股有望迎来反弹。

国泰君安证券:负面预期正加速消化

  2022年开年以来,国内市场震荡下行。一方面,是海外加息缩表预期提前,实际利率快速攀升。另一方面,是国内地产信用隐忧、新冠疫情波折等压制着风险偏好。

  展望后市,从海外来看,尽管高利率对权益市场会产生负向压制,但在较低的美债利率抬升下,不会对美股估值产生剧烈冲击,因此美股对A股的风险传导相对有限。同时,国内仍处于货币政策宽松窗口期,“稳增长”动能进一步夯实,负面预期正在加速消化。

  目前,虽然由于房企债务偿还密集、疫情反复等,2022年一季度成为负向因素和悲观预期较为集中的时间窗口。但市场的调整已经在逐步反映,随着时间的推移以及风险的定价,向后看反而应关注积极因素的向上修正。

  配置方面,大盘价值相对占优,按照稳增长的发力先后顺序,叠加悲观预期的修正幅度,建议投资者关注四个方向:一是消费,二是基建,三是金融,四是消费电子。

海通证券:本轮春季行情不会缺席

  本轮春季行情目前还处在早期阶段,近期价值板块已经有所表现,并且上涨趋势还没有结束,后期成长板块有望紧跟着上涨。

  配置上,建议投资者均衡配置价值和成长,重点关注受益于政策的大金融和新基建。

  一方面,随着稳增长政策发力,经济下行压力被对冲以及房地产债务担忧消退,银行、地产有望迎来估值修复。近期银行、地产已经有所表现,但大金融板块整体估值依然处于低位。大金融中最值得重视的是券商。

  On the other hand, policies for stabilizing growth are being introduced intensively, of which infrastructure is an important starting point, and the efforts of stabilizing growth policies are expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment.

Among them, "new infrastructure" is the best combination of short-term stimulation of effective demand and long-term increase of effective supply.

Specific to the industry, new infrastructure mainly refers to hard technology industries such as new energy-related sectors. At present, low-carbon economy and digital economy-related fields are the focus of stable growth policies.

Industrial Securities: The market has entered the left layout window

  For now, the market is still tangled in the bottom zone.

However, every entanglement and adjustment in the market has become a layout opportunity

  Specifically, the current market has entered a stage similar to August-October 2014.

On the one hand, the direction of relaxation has been clarified, but the market is still entangled in the pace, strength and effect of policy relaxation.

  But on the other hand, the difference between the present and 2014 is that: first, 2014 was a comprehensive and systematic relaxation, while under the current keynote of “housing, not speculating” in real estate and “supporting but not raising” infrastructure, the policy easing intensity and The space is relatively limited, and it is more likely to be a staged, underpinned relaxation.

Second, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged bulls, while the current market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market.

  In terms of configuration, the current market market may be similar to the "mini version 2014", and it is now the left layout window.

It is recommended to invest in the recovery of low valuations such as financial and real estate, and focus on the direction of technological innovation for a long time.

Zheshang Securities: Focus on sectors with low valuations, low positions, and low positions

  2022 is the transition period of the new and old structure bull market, that is, the digital economic chain represented by the Science and Technology Innovation Board has entered the stage of gaining momentum.

However, taking the first half of the year as the observation dimension, there are disturbances at the numerator and denominator, and there are many uncertain factors. Therefore, it is recommended that investors adopt the "three lows" allocation idea, that is, low valuation, low position, and low position. The three clues of the chain and the digital economy chain are configured.

  In terms of stabilizing the growth chain, it is represented by real estate, building materials, building decoration, banks, household appliances, and home appliances.

Benefiting from the policy of stabilizing growth, superimposed valuations, positions and stock prices are still relatively low in history, and they have a relative advantage in the market environment in the first half of the year.

It is worth noting that the stable growth chain has accumulated a certain amount of gains since mid-December. Combined with the fundamentals of the stable growth chain, there are still uncertainties, and short-term fluctuations may be ushered in, which is suitable for bargain hunting.

  出行链方面,以机场、航空、酒店为代表,其中交通运输是典型“三低板块”。从基本面的边际变化来看,行业供给收缩背景下,需求有望在疫后产生爆发式增长,出行板块有望迎来供需大周期。

  就数字经济链而言,一方面,以传媒为代表的超跌行业,受益于元宇宙题材,但受制于业绩释放的不确定,预计行情性质以阶段和脉冲为主,短期来看2月或是活跃窗口;另一方面,以科创板为代表的国产替代、汽车智能化和工业智能化,经历了两年的持续调整,逐步进入价值配置窗口,但上半年仍处震荡蓄势期,机会以个股为主。

招商证券:关注低配置、低预期、低估值的洼地

  展望全年,2022年A股将会保持前稳后高的走势,类似“√”。2022年可能是稳增长政策发力的年份,二季度后,A股可能会开启新一轮上行周期。年内以金融、地产、建材为代表的传统稳增长、低估值方向将带来偏大盘价值2个至4个季度级别的阶段性风格漂移。

  但是风格分化较过去几年更加不明显,稳增长的方向除了传统领域的估值修复行情,还应重点布局考虑新基建(新能源基建、数字基建)中低估值的板块。今年投资者可以重点考虑使用“洼地策略”,更加关注低配置、低预期、低估值的洼地,“低估值+转型”也可能是选股的重要思路。

中泰证券:低估值蓝筹将有确定性的修复机会

  当前主板注册制与相关的退市制度全面加速,结合一季度稳增长下社融等指标技术性企稳预期落地,此时权重股、大票为代表的上证50或将占优,而中小市值公司或面临一定程度调整。

  2021年市场风格以中小盘为主线,主要受益于供应链短缺推升的原材料阶段性涨价。相比之下,价值板块则受疫情、反垄断及共同富裕等冲击,估值水平高位跌落。在2022年经济仍然保持L型存量特征下,稳字当头政策纠偏,更可能扭转市场风格向均值回归切换。

  宏观政策有发力空间、社融技术性企稳及明年经济增速仍处于合理范围的共同作用下,低估值蓝筹将有确定性的修复机会。建议投资者关注四个方向:一是主板注册制下,券商为代表的金融股;二是电力、铁路等中央财政集中发力的板块;三是去年有国改动作且有盈利提升催化的国企龙头;四是高分红公用事业化的板块。

华西证券:震荡依旧

  临近春节,A股受到美联储货币政策扰动和长假前消息面不确定性影响,增量资金入市动力不足,因此仍呈结构性行情特征,震荡依旧。

  具体而言,一方面,12月以来,国内稳增长政策前瞻性发力,央行降准降息接连落地,且后续降息仍有空间,市场处于“宽货币”窗口期,宏观流动性有望维持相对宽松。

  另一方面,结构上,“宽信用”才是央行宽货币的最终诉求,基建和房地产是重要抓手,地产调控政策有望边际宽松,城市更新、保障性住房建设、新基建等是重点发力方向。

  配置上,建议投资者以“低估值价值蓝筹”为主,关注三个方向:一是传统基建相关,如银行、建材;二是受益于地产政策边际改善的房地产及其上下游产业链;三是数字经济、元宇宙、中药等主题投资。