Under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, my country's economy has shown a good recovery trend on the whole, and achieved a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
At present, the epidemic situation and the external environment are still complex and severe, and my country's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations.
It is estimated that the actual growth rate of GDP this year is about 5.3%. While continuing to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, stable growth should be regarded as an overall task of economic work.
Further consolidate the economic recovery situation, ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range, and at the same time take into account the long-term, to lay the foundation and gather momentum for promoting long-term, sustainable, healthy, and high-quality economic development.
Trends of major economic indicators
In 2021, my country's economy will generally show a good recovery trend.
The economic growth is within a reasonable range, the employment situation is generally stable, the foreign trade continues to maintain rapid growth, the proportion of the manufacturing industry has increased, the leading role of scientific and technological innovation has been strengthened, the business environment has been continuously optimized, the restructuring of industrial and supply chains has been accelerated, and regional coordinated development and New urbanization has been effectively promoted, important progress has been made in green transformation and ecological civilization construction, reform and opening up has continued to deepen, and new driving forces for high-quality development have been further consolidated.
Looking forward to 2022, the external environment will become more complex and severe. Out-of-control epidemics and supply chain crises may continue to hinder global economic growth. Factors such as inflation, financial market risks, pressures to deal with climate change, policy trade-offs and coordination difficulties among countries will increase. Uncertainty about the outlook for world economic recovery.
my country's economy is under the combined pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. The downward pressure on growth in 2022 will increase. The overall judgment of the specific economic operation situation is as follows:
First, the task of stabilizing growth in the first half of the year was more prominent.
It is estimated that the actual growth rate of GDP this year is about 5.3%, which is higher than the average growth rate of the past two years, indicating that the economy continues to recover, but it will still be lower than the potential growth rate due to the impact of the epidemic. A state where the gap is negative.
From the perspective of different industries, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the pattern of industrial growth faster than GDP growth and service industry growth slower than GDP growth will continue, but the margin will be moderated.
It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size is roughly the same as the average growth rate of the past two years, and the growth rate of the added value of the service industry is slightly higher than the average growth rate of the past two years.
Second, the CPI widened moderately, the PPI fell quarter by quarter, and the scissors gap narrowed.
Taking into account factors such as the transmission of bulk commodity prices, the shortage of key components in some fields, and the possibility of pork prices bottoming out, it is expected that this year’s CPI growth will gradually widen, with an average annual increase of 2.4%, still in a moderate range, and there is a risk of overall inflation unlikely.
With the slowdown in the price growth of some international bulk commodities, and under the influence of my country's various policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, it is expected that my country's PPI growth will show a relatively obvious gradual decline, with an average annual increase of 5.7%.
Under the influence of the moderate increase of CPI and the fall of PPI, the scissors gap will be significantly narrowed.
On the one hand, this means that the cost-driven structural inflation pattern faced by my country's economy in 2021 will ease. On the other hand, it also means that in the process of upstream price transmission, the middle and downstream industries, especially small and micro private enterprises and terminal consumption. Consumers will still suffer higher inflation costs, especially in the fields of new energy vehicles, home improvement, hardware and other fields.
Third, the total employment pressure is less than that in 2021.
According to estimates, 15.31 million new laborers will enter the job market this year, 880,000 more than in 2021.
However, considering that this year is a big year for retirement, the number of retirees has increased significantly, the number of jobs that can be released is 4.36 million more than in 2021, and coupled with macro-environmental factors such as the continuation of the economic recovery momentum after the epidemic, the total employment pressure this year will be less than that in 2021. year.
At the same time, structural problems such as the mismatch between the structure of labor skills and the structure of market demand, the coexistence of difficulties in recruiting workers in some manufacturing enterprises and the difficulty in finding employment for some youth groups, the low quality of employment for young college students, and hidden unemployment still require attention.
In the next few years, it is expected that the pattern of "big in and big out" in the labor market will continue, which also creates space for the gradual implementation of the policy of extending the retirement age.
With the gradual recovery of the endogenous power of economic growth and the continuous weakening of the base effect of the epidemic, my country's economic growth has generally been running smoothly.
From a quarterly perspective, the GDP growth rate will show a wave of fluctuations.
From a structural point of view, since the negative impact of the epidemic on the tertiary industry is greater than that of the secondary industry, the trend that the growth rate of industrial added value is higher than the overall economic growth rate will continue until the negative impact is completely eliminated.
It is expected that this year's infrastructure investment will have a moderate underpinning effect on economic growth; consumption is expected to recover further; exports will continue to maintain a certain degree of resilience, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than last year.
Focus on stabilizing supply and preventing risks
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is still a risk point that needs attention this year, and we should continue to do a good job of "preventing import from abroad and preventing proliferation from within".
Specifically in the economic field, in the context of the global epidemic, the complex and changeable external environment, and the transformation of new and old domestic kinetic energy, the following issues need to be focused on.
Avoid an excessive slowdown in economic growth.
Economic growth is a global issue.
Under the benchmark scenario, the actual GDP growth rate this year is lower than the potential growth rate. As long as policy support is strengthened, the economic growth rate will not fall below 5%.
High-frequency data shows that the economic growth momentum has been weak since July 2021, and there has been no sign of stabilization so far, which further confirms the need for stable growth.
The risk of excessive slowdown in economic growth needs to be taken seriously. In the short term, some potential risks may be exposed at an accelerated pace, and structural contradictions will become more prominent, making it more difficult to prevent and resolve major risks.
Prevent shortage of primary product supply.
The supply guarantee of primary products is directly related to the national economic lifeline and the interests of the people.
At present, the risk of shortage of primary product supply in my country is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the supply capacity of industrial primary products needs to be enhanced urgently.
Some industrial primary products such as iron ore and coal have experienced periodic supply shortages and rising prices, which have led to significant pressure on a large number of small and micro enterprises in the middle and lower reaches.
Second, the supply capacity of agricultural primary products still needs to be strengthened.
Thanks to the national food security strategy, my country's food security situation is generally improving, but in the face of the global food crisis, it is still necessary to strengthen the supply guarantee capacity of agricultural primary products such as grain.
Third, the import dependence of primary products such as petroleum, iron ore, and soybeans exceeds 70%, which is greatly influenced by the international market; the import dependence of key core components is high, and technological innovation needs to be broken through.
Objectively understand the challenges that may be faced in the accurate and effective implementation of carbon neutrality work.
To do a good job of carbon neutralization, we must adhere to the overall plan and work for a long time.
In the process of specific implementation, some regions and departments have encountered phenomena that are not conducive to the accurate and effective implementation of the carbon neutralization work.
For example, shortening long-term goals, shutting down high-energy-consuming projects “one size fits all”, and withdrawing loans for coal-fired power projects, etc., will have a negative impact on economic development.
In some places, the industrial structure is heavy, the energy structure is high-carbon, and the drive for carbon reduction is insufficient. There is still an urge to launch high-energy-consuming projects in the name of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth.
Due to the lack of a nationally unified and authoritative carbon emission accounting monitoring system and a green and low-carbon evaluation standard system, there is still a lot of foundation to realize the transformation from the "double control" of energy consumption to the "double control" of carbon emission total and intensity. work to be done.
Pay attention to the possible spillover effects caused by the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy.
After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, developed countries such as the United States and Europe implemented historic ultra-loose monetary policies, which led to the flood of global liquidity, and the prices of financial market assets such as stock prices, cryptocurrencies, and housing prices hit new highs, and global debt also hit record highs again. The vulnerability of international financial markets has increased significantly.
At present, the Federal Reserve is starting to reduce its bond purchase plan, and the announcement of the meeting on interest rates indicates that several interest rate hikes may be implemented this year.
Historical experience shows that the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve may trigger the return of the US dollar, raise the value of the US dollar and the interest rate of US treasury bonds, thereby changing the pricing benchmarks of major types of assets. Emerging market economies capital outflows and exchange rate depreciation risks.
Strengthen counter-cyclical regulation and coordination
On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation, comprehensive short-term macro-control and medium- and long-term economic high-quality development need to be considered. Seeking progress in my country" as a global task.
Appropriately intensify the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and appropriately advance policy efforts.
Proactive fiscal policy should improve efficiency.
First, continue to maintain an appropriate deficit scale, move forward the pace of spending appropriately, and implement new tax and fee reduction policies.
The second is to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, increase support for small and medium-sized micro-enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and risk mitigation in the manufacturing industry, and help the supply side consolidate capital and cultivate yuan through fiscal expenditures.
The third is to optimize the management of local government debt, improve the matching degree between the issuance of local government special bonds and the major investment projects of the "14th Five-Year Plan", improve the efficiency of issuance and use of local government bonds, and increase the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in special bond projects.
Fourth, improve the social security system.
Accelerate the reform of the household registration system, reduce the proportion of the population separated from households, promote the equalization of basic public services, and ease the contradiction between income and expenditure between the places where the population flows in and the places where it flows.
Fifth, in response to the partial spread of the epidemic, research and establish compensation and relief measures to stabilize the expectations and confidence of market players, especially small, medium and micro players in the service industry.
A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate.
In the first half of the year, on the basis of adhering to a prudent tone, the monetary policy can be moderately loose at the margin, so as to keep the liquidity of the real economy reasonably sufficient.
The first is to make overall use of structural tools such as re-lending, re-discounting, and direct tools, as well as monetary policy aggregate tools, to keep monetary policy playing a strong and effective role in macro-control.
Second, both sides of supply and demand will work together to enhance the stability of total credit growth.
Alleviate the unreasonable constraints on the credit demand side, moderately increase the credit willingness of market-oriented high-efficiency entities; strengthen the support for commercial banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, to issue perpetual bonds, and improve the ability of the banking system to provide credit.
The third is to effectively reduce the interest burden on existing debts of the real economy, and ease the pressure of rising costs on the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, caused by factors such as rising commodity prices and structural mismatches in the labor market.
Adhere to the policy of giving priority to employment, and speed up the elimination of structural contradictions in the labor market.
The first is to expand the employment capacity of the market, increase the burden reduction for private enterprises, and optimize the way to ensure that market players aid enterprises and stabilize their jobs.
The second is to promote the interaction and integration of the manufacturing industry with higher education, vocational education, and skills training, enhance the attractiveness of employment opportunities in the manufacturing industry to young workers, and alleviate the difficulty of recruiting workers in the manufacturing industry.
The third is to continue to expand the employment absorption capacity of the service industry, scientifically coordinate the promotion of life services and other closely-connected service industries to speed up the restoration, attract more rural laborers of working age to work in cities, and increase the wage income of rural laborers.
The fourth is to enhance the inclusiveness and policy accuracy of public employment services, take college graduates, migrant workers, retired military personnel, unemployed groups, and people with employment difficulties as the focus of employment policies, and incorporate the employment situation of women with children into the implementation of enterprises. A survey of social responsibility.
提升产业链供应链韧性，增强初级产品供给保障能力。一是强化科技创新在初级产品供给保障中的支撑引领作用。健全新型举国体制，推进国家战略科技力量建设，加快优化基础研究和基础应用研究支持体系，着力解决产业链供应链“卡脖子”问题。二是强化能源生产供应能力。加快风能、光能等可再生能源规模化发展，有效发挥煤炭、煤电等传统能源的托底作用，持续完善能源产供储销体系，推动新能源和传统能源形成保障合力，加快推进能源结构调整优化。三是强化粮食现代供应链建设。坚持最严格的耕地保护制度，深入实施“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略，加快推进农业机械化、数字农业等现代农业基础设施建设，巩固和提升粮食综合生产能力。加快完善粮食产购储加销体系，推动重要农产品国际合作，扎实提升粮食保供稳价能力。四是强化产业链供应链韧性。围绕提升初级产品供给保障能力，加快补短板、强弱项、去隐患，促进产业链供应链与数字技术融合创新应用，加快推动关键初级产品产业全链条数字化改造与数据化管理，提升产业链供应链的完整性、安全性和抗风险性。五是强化初级产品自主供给能力。坚持顶层设计、科学精准谋划，结合经济社会发展实际，分类分批有序降低不同初级产品进口依存度，保持关键初级产品对外依存度控制在合理区间。
Coordinate and orderly do a good job of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.
Correctly understand and grasp the requirements of carbon neutralization work, adhere to a national game of chess, and consider the implementation of energy and economic policies related to carbon peak carbon neutralization.
Improve the incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction, explore the establishment of a unified national carbon emission accounting and monitoring system, and support regions with conditions to realize the transition from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity.
Improve the carbon peaking and carbon neutral "1+N" policy system, and formulate and issue carbon peaking implementation plans and various guarantee plans for different industries and fields.
Deepen the reform of the market-oriented formation mechanism of coal and electricity prices to ensure stable energy supply and security.
Vigorously promote the intelligent development of coal-fired power generation, gradually promote the high-end coal chemical products, and strengthen the clean and efficient utilization of coal.
Speed up the development of wind power, hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, safely develop nuclear power projects, and steadily increase the proportion of clean energy consumption.
Strengthen green and low-carbon technology research, and build a market-oriented green and low-carbon technology innovation system.
Optimize the layout of new energy development, plan and build a number of new energy-based power bases in areas rich in new energy resources, accelerate the construction of new intelligent power systems, and focus on improving the ability to consume and utilize new energy.
Continue to fight the tough battle of pollution prevention and control, strengthen the coordinated control of multiple pollutants and regional coordinated governance, and promote the coordinated control of fine particulate matter and ozone.
Vigorously develop the green economy, accelerate the green transformation of development methods, promote the green transformation of key industries, and continuously improve the green, low-carbon and circular development economic system.
Actively summarize and promote the practical experience of transforming lucid waters and lush mountains into invaluable assets, and expand the scope of pilot cities for the realization mechanism of ecological product value.
Improve the fiscal and taxation support policies for ecological civilization, and promote green and low-carbon development.
Coordinate development and safety, and do a good job in risk prevention and mitigation in key areas.
It is necessary to prudently do a good job in stabilizing housing prices, expectations, and investment in the real estate market, and maintain the continuous, stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The first is to deal with the overdue delivery risks of individual leading real estate projects in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law.
Consolidate the main responsibility of enterprises to ensure that social stability and the interests of the country and the masses are not damaged.
The second is to prudently manage the real estate market in fourth- and fifth-tier cities, and do a good job in stabilizing housing prices and expectations.
Avoid excessive price reductions and promotions by real estate companies to supplement liquidity under the pressure of "three red lines", triggering downward pressure on housing prices in some fourth- and fifth-tier cities, and exacerbating debt risks in the real estate industry.
The third is to stabilize investment and consumption in the real estate market.
Combining dredging and blocking, reasonably increase the construction of affordable rental housing with net inflow of population into cities, as well as related land indicators and credit supply.
Reasonably guarantee the housing mortgage loan demand of the just-needed groups with good qualifications.
Strengthen the management of the concentration of housing development loans, and prevent the excessive concentration of small and medium-sized commercial bank loans on individual housing enterprises.
Adhere to the implementation of domestic macro policies with China as the mainstay, and prevent spillover risks that may be caused by the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy.
First, closely track and judge the macroeconomic situation, inflation and asset price changes in developed countries, especially the United States, conduct sand table deductions for the possible spillover effects of macro policy adjustments in developed countries on my country, and prepare policy plans in advance.
Second, during the window period for the Fed to adjust monetary policy, it is necessary to prudently manage capital accounts to prevent large-scale inflows and outflows of hot money.
Adhere to the managed floating exchange rate system and enhance the flexibility of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.
The third is to insist on implementing domestic monetary policy with China as the mainstay.
In the face of the dislocation of the Sino-US economic cycle and the narrowing of the growth gap, the weight of stable growth in macro policy formulation should be appropriately increased to avoid passive tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and avoid passive appreciation of the RMB "package" exchange rate following the US dollar index.
The fourth is to closely track and analyze the situation of foreign demand and foreign trade and the operation of foreign trade enterprises, timely and dynamically adjust the response measures, and consolidate the newly added overseas markets during the epidemic.
(Writing by: Li Xuesong, Feng Ming, Lou Feng, Zuo Pengfei, Sun Bowen)