中新财经1月25日电 (记者 李金磊)“人民币成为全球第四大活跃货币”冲上热搜。

  根据环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)最新数据显示,2021年12月,人民币在国际支付中的份额占比升至第四。这也是自2015年8月以来,人民币国际支付全球排名首次超越日元,跻身全球前四大活跃货币。

  超越日元,人民币成为全球第四大活跃货币,原因何在?又意味着什么?应该如何看待此次变化?中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲接受中新网“中国新观察”栏目采访,对此进行解读。

访谈实录摘编如下:

中新网记者:SWIFT数据显示,2021年12月,人民币全球支付占比升至2.7%,自2015年8月以来首次超越日元(2.58%),跻身全球前四大活跃货币。原因何在?这意味着什么?

谭雅玲:

第一,说明在面临疫情冲击和逆全球化压力之下,中国经济形势稳定恢复,经济增长和外贸形势相对都比较好,尤其是2021年中国经济规模突破114万亿元,外贸增长20%以上,外贸发展良好,这是人民币支付使用排名提升的重要因素。

  第二,说明中国近几年“一带一路”取得重要进展,“一带一路”沿线国家是人民币支付使用的重要的平台,有助于扩大人民币结算的空间。

  第三,人民币在国际支付中的份额占比升至第四,这跟中国自身的努力和人民币可信赖度和信誉度比较高有关系,中国经济改革和金融开放的努力得到了更多的认可。此外,主要发达国家货币不稳定性相对比较强,伴随着人民币升值,更多的国家愿意接受人民币结算。

  反观日元,日元本身在国际货币体系当中在走下坡路,这两年日本经济不太好,再加上日本疫情相对比较严重,这都会限制日元的流通性和使用率。日元处于下降周期,人民币处于上升周期,此消彼长,人民币排位得以超越日元。

资料图。

Chinanews.com reporter: RMB ranks among the top four active currencies in the world. There are views that the RMB is more popular, which is a leap of historical significance. There are also views that the proportion of RMB in global payments is still closely related to the size of China's economy and trade. There is no match. The top three dollar, euro, and pound account for 40.51%, 36.65%, and 5.89%, respectively. How should we view this change?

Tan Yaling:

The ranking of the RMB in international payments has risen to fourth. This is just a small step in the internationalization of the RMB, not that the internationalization of the RMB has come.

We need to maintain a peaceful mind and view this change in an objective and rational manner.

  First, from the perspective of the international payment share, at present, the proportion of RMB is still very small, especially compared with the international payment share of the US dollar and the euro, there is still a big gap.

  Second, from the perspective of qualifications, the first three currencies are all freely convertible currencies and international currencies, while the RMB is still a local currency, not a freely convertible currency, only the qualification of the special drawing rights (SDR) for the balance of payments .

This is the biggest difference.

  Therefore, we cannot be blindly optimistic.

In particular, the ranking of RMB in international payments has risen. An important background is that the RMB is appreciating. From last year to the present, the RMB has fluctuated and appreciated, from the era of 6.5 yuan to the era of 6.3 yuan, the relative appreciation of the currency, and the willingness of other countries to use RMB for settlement. will strengthen.

  However, the appreciation of the renminbi also has a suppressing effect on China's economy, which is not conducive to foreign trade. Moreover, foreign trade enterprises are also faced with rising raw material prices, rising shipping prices, and rising labor prices. Under the superposition of several factors, the actual profits of foreign trade enterprises are increasing. few.

Therefore, foreign trade enterprises have to prepare for a big hurdle this year.

The staff counts the currency.

(Data map) Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Chinanews.com reporter: Since the second half of 2021, the RMB has appreciated to a certain extent, and it has now risen above 6.34.

How do you predict the RMB exchange rate trend in 2022?

How should companies respond?

Tan Yaling:

This year's exchange rate trend, two-way fluctuations may be more obvious.

Among the two-way fluctuations, the correction of the partial depreciation of the RMB may be prominent.

After the excessive appreciation of the RMB, it is expected that there will be a repairing market.

  There is a big trouble here. This year, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive combination of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet to boost the economy. If the Fed raises interest rates and the dollar appreciates, it may have adverse effects on the US economy or businesses. Moreover, This year is the year of the US mid-term elections, so there is still a relatively large possibility of the devaluation of the US dollar. This risk cannot be underestimated.

  It can be seen that from the beginning of the year to the present, the trend of depreciation of the US dollar is very obvious, and the US dollar index has declined.

If the U.S. dollar depreciates, the renminbi will appreciate, so we still have to guard against this risk to avoid the imbalance of the cost equilibrium point of foreign trade enterprises.

  For enterprises, it is necessary to be prepared to respond, establish a "risk-neutral" concept, and avoid "foreign exchange speculation" that deviates from risk-neutral.

A view of Ningbo port.

Photo by Shen Yingjun

Chinanews.com reporter: The data also shows that in the third quarter of 2021, the share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves will increase to 2.66%, a new high and ranking fifth in the world.

Morgan Stanley Research predicts that by 2030, the renminbi is expected to become the third-largest reserve currency after the dollar and the euro.

How far do you think the era of the "three-point world" of the US dollar, the euro, and the renminbi is?

Tan Yaling:

RMB is still the local currency, not a freely convertible currency.

It was integrated into the SDR under the premise that it is not freely convertible, and the increase in the share of international payments and foreign exchange reserves shows that the credibility of the renminbi has won the world.

  However, we must also have a clear understanding that the gap between the RMB 2% and the previous ones is still too much. Therefore, the market should avoid emotionalism and return to basic common sense and basic logic.

There are international standards, and national conditions have individuality, and individuality does not represent international standards.

  China's economy has developed relatively well so far, but it faces cyclical and structural risks and pressures.

Therefore, we still have to look at it rationally and have an accurate judgment on our currency positioning. There is a long way to go for the RMB to become the ultimate freely convertible currency and an international currency.

  China still has a long way to go from a developing country to a developed country.

To promote the internationalization of the RMB, on the one hand, we must strive to improve China's economic strength and per capita level, and on the other hand, we must continuously improve the financial and foreign exchange market and expand opening up.

(Finish)