How will the pharmaceutical stocks that Changchun Hi-Tech rarely introduce two consecutive limit-down policies this year?

　　At the beginning of 2022, the sharp drop in the share prices of leading stocks has cast a shadow over the investment in the pharmaceutical sector.

　　On January 20, the stock price of Changchun High-tech (000661.SZ) fell by the limit for the second consecutive day, the market value fell below 90 billion, and the market value "evaporated" 20 billion in two days.

Previously, "Medical Equipment Mao" Mindray Medical once fell by more than 16% in January. As of January 20, the stock reported 354.94 yuan.

　　Previously, the policies for drugs and medical consumables were intensively implemented, and the centralized procurement policy was further clarified.

Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that the next step is to promote the normalization and institutionalization of centralized and waiting-to-quantity procurement and accelerate the expansion.

In 2021, the performance of the A-share pharmaceutical sector in 2021 will be far worse than that of popular tracks such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, and medicine-related theme funds have suffered heavy losses.

, How the pharmaceutical sector will be interpreted in 2022, and which sub-sectors are expected to go out of the market are the focus of the market.

　　A number of industry insiders who have accepted the first financial reporter believe that the introduction of policies such as centralized procurement is beneficial to genuine innovative pharmaceutical companies, which will help to open up the differentiation between companies and truly meet the needs of end patients.

Correspondingly, the sub-segment companion diagnostics is expected to gain more attention from the market.

Policies are good for truly innovative pharmaceutical companies

　　Changchun Hi-Tech's after-hours dragon and tiger list shows that among the top 5 sales departments with the largest sales amount, 4 institutional seats are on the list, with a total sales of 170 million yuan, and Minsheng Securities Harbin Branch bought 49.18 million yuan.

　　At present, the centralized procurement policy of the pharmaceutical industry is becoming increasingly normalized and standardized.

Previously, on January 10, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that the next step is to normalize and institutionalize centralized procurement and accelerate the expansion.

The first is to focus on chronic diseases and common diseases, continue to promote the centralized procurement of drugs at the national level, and carry out provincial or inter-provincial alliance procurement of drugs outside the national centralized procurement; , drug balloons, dental implants, etc. are collected at the national and provincial levels respectively.

　　What impact will the normalization of centralized procurement have on the main logic of the entire pharmaceutical sector?

How do industry professionals view the impact of policy acceleration on innovative pharmaceutical companies?

　　"From the perspective of centralized procurement, many pharmaceutical companies, especially traditional pharmaceutical companies, will complain. However, innovative companies will have a more positive view. The policy has brought huge development opportunities to innovative pharmaceutical companies and innovative diagnostic companies. Under the acquisition, innovative companies can sell their products without building a huge sales team." Zhang Yafei, chairman and CEO of Medjer Translational Medicine, told Yicai.com.

　　Since the drug review reform in 2015, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a magnificent market.

Although the pharmaceutical index has been adjusted periodically after 2018 due to factors such as the centralized procurement of generic drugs, centralized equipment procurement, and the impact of the epidemic, pharmaceutical stocks are still spiraling upward.

　　A pharmaceutical industry analyst told reporters: "After the payment of medical insurance, the normalization of the drug catalog will definitely help improve the innovation momentum of enterprises. Generally speaking, drug safety comes first, and clinical trial data is effective, economical, and innovative. and have major public health value, which are the key dimensions for evaluating the value of pharmaceutical products, and innovative performance earns a certain premium space for products. Looking forward to 1-3 years, with the reform of payment methods, new requirements are put forward for drugs and consumables, or the cost is the smallest To maximize clinical value, low-quality repetitive products will be phased out.”

　　Companion diagnostics is an in vitro diagnostic technology, which is currently the most widely used in the field of oncology, and is also the basis of targeted/immunotherapy.

"Companion diagnosis is in line with the policy orientation of medical insurance cost control, which avoids the waste of medical resources that may occur in the process of clinical treatment, and avoids unnecessary medical expenses for patients and medical insurance." The analyst said.

　　In Zhang Yafei's view, precision medicine can only be achieved with medical insurance.

In layman's terms, precision medicine mainly covers two parts, one refers to drug treatment, and the other refers to which gene mutation or abnormal protein expression is based on the detection of disease before drug treatment.

"The reason why we want to promote precision medicine now is that the response rate of patients to a certain drug is very low, about 20%-30%. The application of companion diagnostics can double the patient's response. rate," he said.

In 2022

　　Looking back at the performance of the pharmaceutical sector in 2021, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index fell by 5.65% throughout the year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.57 percentage points, but far behind popular tracks such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles.

　　In terms of sub-sectors, the internal differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector is fierce.

Among them, APIs rose the most by 34.0%, mainly due to the outstanding performance of CXO stocks in transition; Chinese medicines followed with an increase of 31.7%, mainly due to risk aversion and policy encouragement to perform well at the end of next year.

Technological innovation companies represented by innovative drugs and new vaccines will undergo deep adjustments in the second half of 2021 due to frequent domestic policies and uncertainties in overseas markets.

　　Specific to the in vitro diagnostics sub-sector, the performance of this sector in 2021 is not ideal. The average increase of 41 stocks throughout the year is 0.895, and the median is a decrease of 10%.

Since 2022, some stocks in the sector have seen their stock prices rise sharply due to the high sales of new crown detection reagent products, but they are not directly related to companion diagnostics.

　　Entering 2022, the internal differentiation momentum of the pharmaceutical sector has not stopped.

Judging from the performance since the beginning of the year, the high and low levels of funds have switched significantly.

Sub-sectors such as new crown detection and traditional Chinese medicine have eye-catching performance, and the rest of the sectors have not shown signs of obvious active performance.

　　Specific to the companion diagnostic industry, in recent years, with the rapid development of my country's innovative drug industry, the approval of tumor-targeted drugs and immunotherapy drugs has been accelerated. Benefiting from this, the companion diagnostic industry, which is the basis for its research and development, will also develop rapidly.

　　According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, the proportion of targeted therapy and immunotherapy drugs in my country will gradually increase in the future, reaching 25.3% and 34.7% respectively in 2030, and the scale of the companion diagnostic industry is expected to grow rapidly.

　　"From the perspective of the technical path, among the existing four mainstream diagnostic methods of companion diagnosis, there is no best, only the most suitable. The ultimate goal of companion diagnosis is to improve the clinical benefit of patients," said the above-mentioned analyst.

　　Zhang Yafei also said that all national policies have higher and higher requirements for product quality, and innovative enterprises are expected to benefit from the policy to widen product differentiation.

"The new crown has actually raised the status of the diagnostic industry a lot. In recent years, the country has been reforming the medical system, including the centralized procurement of medicines, which has severely compressed the profits of many pharmaceutical companies. To some extent, the Said that the importance of such subdivisions as companion diagnosis is more obvious, companion diagnosis can find out the differentiation of drugs for similar diseases, avoid homogeneous products, and find out the patients who are really suitable for each drug.”