Zhongxin Finance, January 21. On the 21st, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and spokesperson, said that the Fed's monetary policy tightening this time may have less spillover impact than the previous round.
Wang Chunying said that at present, the monetary policy of developed economies, especially the United States, is in the stage of normalization.
Compared with the last round of the Fed’s monetary policy adjustment, my country’s economy has developed high-quality in recent years, with more prominent advantages in the industrial chain and supply chain, and the opening of the financial market to the outside world has steadily advanced, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has been continuously improved, and the stability of cross-border capital flows has been remarkable. Enhanced, so it can better cope with changes in the external environment.
However, during the QE period of this round of developed economies, the inflow of funds such as cross-border loans and trade financing is limited, and the pressure to deleverage in the future is weak.
During this round of quantitative easing, the RMB exchange rate is generally expected to be stable. From the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021, cross-border loans and trade financing increased by 8%, lower than the annual average of 21% during the last round of quantitative easing from 2009 to 2013. % growth rate.
Therefore, in the second half of 2021, after the Fed's policy adjustment is expected to increase, whether it is cross-border loans or trade financing, the changes in relevant cross-border funds will be relatively stable, so the future adjustment pressure will be relatively low.
(Finish)