Large policy space, more medium and long-term dividends in reform, and strong attraction to foreign investment -
international institutions are generally optimistic about China's economy
. Our reporter Jiang Huadong
With the annual growth rate of 8.1% and the total economic volume exceeding 110 trillion yuan, the future trend of China's economy has become the focus of attention of all parties.
Based on the evaluation and analysis of major international institutions, although China's economic operation will face a series of risks and pressures in the future, all institutions are generally optimistic about the prospect of China's continued, stable and high-quality development of the economy.
Structural transformation consolidates the foundation of anti-risk
AXA Asset Management believes that in 2021, China's economy will not only recover rapidly from shocks such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but also take advantage of the cyclical rebound to promote supply-side structural reforms, speed up cross-cycle adjustment, strengthen supervision and real estate deleveraging.
Although the data in the third and fourth quarters show that structural transformation will inevitably bring short-term pain, the timing of reform is undoubtedly appropriate.
As the short-term shock disappears, the above policy adjustments will provide the Chinese government with space and resources to deal with the current and future downward pressure on the economy.
It is expected that with the cyclical recovery in the first half of this year, China's economy will achieve steady growth in 2022.
Ashley Group believes that since the outbreak of the epidemic, China's economic cycle has been ahead of developed economies.
In 2020, China is the first major economy to achieve positive growth, enabling the Chinese government to advance inter-cyclical adjustments and structural reforms in 2021, and reserve policy space to deal with future economic pressures.
In 2022, both uncertainty and downward pressure on the global economy are on the rise.
Compared with developed economies, China's development in the past two years means that China has more resources and space to stabilize economic development and achieve recovery.
Morgan Stanley believes that in 2021, when the world's major developed economies generally adopt ultra-loose monetary policies and large-scale fiscal stimulus, China's macro leverage ratio will drop sharply, which is in line with the 25% to 30% increase in debt ratios in the United States, Europe and Japan. A sharp contrast was formed.
At the same time, the Chinese government has reshaped its regulatory framework for areas such as real estate, carbon emissions and technology.
Currently, developed economies are facing rising inflationary pressure on the one hand, and the recovery process is still unstable on the other hand.
In contrast, China has more policy space in these two aspects, which has laid a solid foundation for China to release policy power in 2022.
Citi Wealth Management also believes that compared with the gradual tightening of monetary policy by mainstream central banks in Europe and the United States, China's 2022 policy may have more room for easing, which is conducive to supporting economic growth.
China's economic growth may slow down under the influence of a high base, but the overall recovery is expected to remain moderate.
Reform boosts high-quality development
Among the many analyses on the future trend of China's economy, most institutions will focus on the medium and long-term dividends of China's recent domestic economic reforms.
Morgan Stanley believes that China's sweeping regulatory changes over the past 12 months have shown the focus of economic governance has shifted from prioritizing growth to balancing growth and security.
However, it is inappropriate to think that China's economic development faces the risk of a "hard landing".
Fox Economic Research, an international economic analysis agency, conducted a survey of 16 institutional investors in early December last year, showing that most investors' risk expectations for China's real estate market have gradually cooled down, and the "soft landing" of China's real estate market has become the mainstream expectation of all parties; It is expected that the affluent policy will improve China's social security, and it is believed that it will stimulate household consumption in the medium and long term, so that it will occupy a higher proportion in the national economy; the consensus on the anti-monopoly policy to improve the efficiency of economic operation is rising, and it is believed that the supervision of the platform economy will be strengthened. It can not only reduce consumption costs, but also promote the multi-directional flow of capital, especially in the fields of semiconductors, green energy, biotechnology and artificial intelligence, thereby improving the resilience and endurance of the Chinese economy to deal with external shocks.
Citi Wealth Management believes that China's economy is expected to achieve long-term sustainable and healthy development after a series of optimization reforms such as industrial structure upgrading and market standardization adjustment.
The leverage ratio of China's real estate industry has been gradually reduced, and short-term liquidity pressure will not cause systemic risks. It is expected that the outlook of the real estate industry in 2022 is expected to improve.
The review of anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition in the technology industry is conducive to promoting reasonable market competition and stimulating broader technological innovation.
The common prosperity policy can further expand the number of middle-income groups in China, and the continuous increase in disposable income will be beneficial to the economic development of China and surrounding areas.
Robeco Investment Management believes that after the rapid economic recovery in the first and second quarters of 2021, Chinese government policymakers will seize the opportunity to solve long-term structural problems, focusing on eliminating long-term financial risks, especially focusing on deleveraging in the real estate sector, platform economic regulation and reducing Economic development, environmental cost and energy consumption cost.
This strategy is beneficial to the medium and long-term development of China's economy, and it is also an important highlight and feature of China's economy that cannot be ignored in 2021.
China's economy appears attractive enough
In the context of the adjustment of monetary policies in major developed economies in the world, China's good performance in attracting foreign investment compared with other emerging market countries is enough to demonstrate the expectations and confidence of all parties in China's long-term high-quality economic growth.
In terms of securities investment, data released by the Institute of International Finance recently showed that in December 2021, emerging market countries attracted 16.8 billion U.S. dollars of securities investment, while the inflow of securities investment into China reached as high as 22.6 billion U.S. dollars. Other emerging market countries as a whole were net outflow.
According to the analysis of the Institute of International Finance, this reflects that more and more international investors believe that China's economic development has higher stability and sustainability.
In terms of attracting international direct investment, Citi recently released survey statistics showing that the integrity of China's industrial system and the resilience of its supply chain have played a "last guard" role for the world during the epidemic. Companies see China as their preferred investment destination.
Among them, 85% of U.S. multinational companies with operations in China said they would not move their manufacturing and purchasing departments out of China, an increase of 2 percentage points from 2019.
The number of European companies planning to move factories out of China fell to 9%, a record low.
Our reporter Jiang Huadong