(Economic Watch) How will China's economy respond to challenges after 8.1%?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, January 21, Question: How will China's economy respond to challenges after 8.1%?

　　China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo

　　In 2021, China's GDP will grow by 8.1%, and the total economic volume will exceed the 110 trillion yuan mark.

However, as the external environment becomes more complex, severe and uncertain, China's economy will still face challenges after entering 2022.

　　The State Council Information Office held a briefing on the current economic situation on the 21st. Financial experts who attended the meeting pointed out that China has the ability, willingness, and space for steady growth, and it can effectively deal with external risks.

　There is still room for a stable growth policy

　　The global recovery is still weak despite the repeated epidemics. The World Bank recently lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1%.

In the coming year, China's task of stabilizing growth will not be light. Is there still stock in the policy "toolbox"?

　　"With the market suffering such a severe impact, the government must play a more active role." Li Yang, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, former vice president, and chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said that some developed economies such as the United States and Europe China has launched a zero or even negative interest rate policy, and it has done everything possible in quantitative expansion and price regulation.

China has not yet reached this point, so there is still room for policy.

　　For example, Li Yang said that since the beginning of this year, the Chinese monetary authorities have successively launched a series of expansionary policies, such as lowering the statutory reserve ratio and lowering interest rates.

"This shows that there is no problem with the control space of China's main macro policies, and it is working hard."

　　Conditional isolation from external shocks

　　The monetary policy shift of the central banks of developed economies, especially the Federal Reserve, is one of the main risks facing the current global economy. All parties, including China, are paying close attention to its spillover effects.

　　Li Yang pointed out that when the Fed tightens policy, the general tendency is for a large amount of capital to flow out of emerging economies and developing countries, many of which flow back to the United States.

This usually leads to rising interest rates and pressure on exchange rates in emerging economies and developing countries, and their real estate, stocks and other asset prices will also be affected, which will lead to changes in the economic situation.

　　Li Yang said that many developing countries in the world basically have no "firewall" and will be greatly affected by this.

However, as the largest developing country, China has its own management rules. In addition, China's capital flow has not been fully liberalized, and the RMB exchange rate has adopted a managed float, so this impact will be insulated to a considerable extent.

　　Zhu Guangyao, counselor of the State Council and former vice minister of the Ministry of Finance of China, believes that compared with the past, the pace of the Fed's policy changes is very fast and the scale is very large.

He emphasized that he hoped that the United States could change the concept of "the dollar is our currency, and the problem is your problem", and truly strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination with other countries in the world, especially developing countries and emerging market countries. This coordination can work effectively.

　Coordinate carbon reduction and development first

　　After the shortage of electricity supply and demand occurred last year, how to coordinate the relationship between carbon reduction and development has attracted more attention.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that achieving carbon neutrality is an inherent requirement to promote high-quality development, and it must be unswervingly advanced, but it cannot be accomplished in one fell swoop.

Li Yang said that this means that there will be coordination and cooperation between long-term goals and short-term goals in the future.

With the redeployment of the "dual carbon" related policies by relevant parties, it will effectively avoid the problems such as power cuts and insufficient coal power that have occurred before, as well as the phenomenon of "target-based carbon reduction" in the short term.

　　Zhu Guangyao said that carbon neutralization is a major strategic decision and must be unswervingly moved forward.

At the same time, we must also seek truth from facts and work for a long time.

　　He pointed out that it is still China's basic national conditions to focus on coal. It is necessary to establish first and then to break through, to promote the "dual carbon" target work in an orderly manner, to focus on the clean and efficient use of coal, and to promote the optimal combination of coal use and new energy.

In this regard, the Central Economic Work Conference has made a clear statement. On the whole, it is complete and orderly. It not only clarifies the tasks from a historical height, but also proposes specific measures.

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