Edible oil rose faster than crude oil last year
Industry insiders: The first half of this year will still maintain a high annual growth rate or slow down
Recently, Ms. Liu, a citizen, found that the price of edible oil has risen a lot compared to before.
To this end, the reporter visited and learned that the price of some edible oils on the market has increased significantly compared with the previous one; affected by the increase in the price of imported raw materials, manufacturers are facing the dilemma of operating profit squeeze and price increase.
According to the statistics of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the prices of various vegetable oils, including palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, etc., will rise by 65.8% in 2021 compared with 2020 levels, outperforming the 50% increase in crude oil.
Industry insiders predict that the price of edible oil may remain high in the first half of 2022. If it enters a downward channel in 2022, the resulting time lag effect will amplify the profitability of domestic edible oil companies, and the profit elasticity may be gradually released.
Text/Guangzhou Daily All Media Reporter Zhao Fangyuan
Reporter's direct hit on the New Year's market: the price of some edible oil products is still rising
On January 18, the reporter visited and learned that the edible oils currently on the market mainly include soybean oil, peanut oil, rapeseed oil, corn oil, and tea seed oil.
On an online grocery shopping app, a 5L Luhua 5S pressed first-grade peanut oil is priced at 169.9 yuan, a 5L Arowana soybean oil is priced at 65.9 yuan, and a 5L Duoli sunflower oil The price is 88.8 yuan.
During the visit, the reporter noticed that as the Chinese New Year is approaching, in order to meet the needs of customers to stock up on New Year's goods, supermarkets have started stocking and promotion models. However, due to the increase in raw materials, the prices of some edible oil products have increased accordingly.
According to the relevant person in charge of Carrefour, a 5.436L orchid flower ancient method peanut oil is currently priced at 154.9 yuan per barrel, an increase of 1.91% year-on-year, an increase of 14.74% year-on-year, and a decrease of 12.83%.
"At present, two popular items in our store - 3.68L Luhua 5S pressed first-grade peanut oil, which is priced at 99.9 yuan/barrel, and 4L Fulinmen strong-scented peanut oil, priced at 69.9 yuan/barrel, are priced at the same price as last year. There is no growth." said the relevant person in charge of Carrefour.
According to the statistics of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, for the whole year of 2021, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index will average 164.8 points, an increase of 65.4 points, or 65.8%, compared with 2020, a record high for the year.
Not only was this the largest increase in the major food types the agency counted, but it was also the largest annual increase in vegetable oil prices since statistics were available.
The price of imported sunflower oil has almost doubled, and manufacturers are cautious about raising prices
Xiao Zheng is the owner of a small domestic sunflower oil company. The company is engaged in the production and processing of sunflower oil. The oil sunflowers needed for daily oil extraction are mainly imported from Kazakhstan.
In the past year, affected by the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the prices of bulk commodities have risen sharply, and the prices of imported oil sunflowers have been constantly hitting new highs.
"In previous years, the price of imported oil sunflowers was about 3,300~3,400 yuan/ton. Starting from 2021, we found that the price of oil sunflowers rose rapidly. It has now reached 5,800 yuan/ton, almost doubling." Xiao Zheng told reporters that even if In this way, the company still chooses to import oil sunflower from abroad, because the price of domestic oil sunflower is higher.
Due to the high cost of planting, from September to November 2021, the price of domestic sunflowers will be about 7,300 yuan/ton. Although there has been a certain decline, it still remains at a high of 6,600 yuan/ton.
The high price of upstream raw materials directly affects the operating profits of enterprises.
Xiao Zheng told reporters that in the past, the profit of producing 1 ton of sunflower oil was about 2,000 yuan, but now the profit has been greatly reduced.
"As a small enterprise, the company focuses on direct sales. Due to its small output and thin profit, there is no price increase plan yet. I am worried that once the price increase, the downstream market will not accept it and sales will become difficult." Xiao Zheng said.
The reporter noticed that most edible oil manufacturers are more cautious when making price increase decisions, and prefer to use a variety of means to control costs and ensure profits.
Previously, Arowana said in an institutional survey that the company will decide whether to adjust the price and the extent of the adjustment after comprehensive consideration of various factors such as the market conditions, market competitiveness, and consumption power of various varieties. It is relatively cautious. The price will be adjusted by adjusting the promotion intensity, cost input, etc.
On January 14, Suken Agricultural Development stated on the investor interactive platform that the R&D, production and sales of the company's edible vegetable oil are operated by its holding subsidiary, Golden Sun Grain and Oil. On the one hand, Golden Sun Grain and Oil adopts methods such as low-level purchases in the spot market as much as possible. Reduce the cost of raw materials, on the other hand, explore the use of futures hedging and other methods to hedge the risk of large short-term price changes of raw materials.
At the same time, we will continue to improve the level of production and processing, and strive to improve the cost control ability at the production end.
Upstream production cuts, increased costs, tight supply and demand in the edible oil market
The main reason for the rise in the oil sector is that the industry believes that it is mainly due to the tight supply caused by natural disasters, epidemics and logistics factors.
Liu Jinshan, director and professor of the Investment Consulting (Research) Center of Jinan University, believes that since the outbreak of the epidemic, central banks around the world have released a huge amount of "money water" to the futures market, pushing up the futures prices of agricultural products, which are transmitted to the spot market prices. The price of food such as grain and oil has risen.
At the same time, since July and August 2021, flood seasons of varying degrees have occurred all over the world, including my country, and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters has led to problems in the upstream production environment of agricultural products, which in turn has led to a reduction in the supply of agricultural products and speculation in the futures market.
In addition, the sharp rise in circulation costs is also one of the reasons for the rise in edible oil prices.
"The main production areas and main sales areas of grain and oil in the world are inconsistent, which means that edible oil raw materials face a long transportation from 'the place of origin to the table'. Since 2021, the entire global freight rate has risen rapidly, driving edible oil raw material products. Prices are going up." Liu Jinshan said.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, the China Business Industry Research Institute report shows that China's refined edible vegetable oil production has fluctuated and declined from 2016 to 2021, from 6,908 tons in 2016 to 5,476 tons in 2020.
Among them, the output of refined edible vegetable oil in China from January to July 2021 was only 27.64 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%.
Although the inflection point has reached the price of edible oil in the first half of this year, it may remain high
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 178.5 points in December, down 6.1 points from its recent record high, according to the latest data released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
The decline in the index was mainly driven by weaker palm oil and sunflower oil prices, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices were largely unchanged month-on-month.
Among them, international palm oil prices fell in December last year, mainly due to weakened global import demand.
Influenced by demand rationing, international sunflower oil quotations weakened.
In contrast, world soybean oil and canola oil prices remained strong, respectively, due to strong import demand, mainly from India, and continued tight global supplies.
Looking forward to 2022, Liu Jinshan predicts that in the first half of 2022, in the context of high demand and low supply, the price trend of edible oil may remain high.
The first half of the year is a time when many areas in China are producing "green and yellow". Due to the high energy cost, the production cost of greenhouse agriculture will increase, which will then be transmitted to the whole food including edible oil.
In the second half of 2022, we need to wait and see the weather conditions from July to August. If the weather is good, the price of edible oil may gradually slow down.
The Huaxi Securities research report pointed out that, in its judgment, the cost of raw materials may enter a downward channel in 2022, and the resulting time lag effect will amplify the profitability of domestic edible oil companies, and the profit elasticity may be gradually released.