As at the beginning of last year, numerous raw material prices are currently rising.

For example, the price of nickel has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2011 at $24,410 per ton.

It is said that since 2007 nickel has not been as scarce as it is now.

The interest rate cut by the Chinese National Bank, which has made it easier to finance commodities transactions in which China plays a major role, also contributed to this.

Nickel is also currently in high demand for e-cars, so the available supply cannot keep up at the moment, said Wang Yue, an analyst at Shanghai East Asia Futures for the Bloomberg news agency.

Martin Hock

Editor in Business.

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Other industrial metals are also showing significant price increases. The aluminum price has risen by almost 20 percent since mid-December, and new record prices have been paid for tin practically every day since September. Another factor is China's efforts to boost its flagging growth through infrastructure investments.

Precious metals, which were comparatively unpopular last year - for example, the price of palladium fell by almost 50 percent from an all-time high between the beginning of May and mid-December - are more in demand again. Palladium is now up 34 percent and even gold is up nearly 4 percent, which is a two-month high. The price will drop slightly on Thursday. but given that recent gold demand was largely a reaction to bond market falls, and they eased significantly on Thursday, this is understandable. Gold is finally responding to high inflation rates around the world, Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets, told Bloomberg.

Towards the end of last year, with the appearance of the Omikron variant, the optimism that prevailed at the time gave way to a certain degree of uncertainty, explains Armin Sabeur, the board member responsible for investments at Optinova, a provider specializing in commodity stock funds, explaining the weak development in the second half of the year. But in December you could already feel more confidence in the course of the year-end rally.

Another dampening factor was the problem of disrupted supply chains. "There was a drop in demand in the second half of the year," says Sabeur. This was also felt by the flagship fund “Metals and Materials”, whose shares initially gained more than 50 percent in value from the Corona low by mid-May. But then the price stagnated until mid-December and has since recovered somewhat.

Sabeur looks positively into the new year. Even if he does not want to rule out a sideways or downward movement for the first quarter overall, he is optimistic for the second half of the year at the latest. Especially for precious metals. From an anti-cyclical point of view, these are promising. And despite the planned tightening of monetary policy, US debt has continued to rise for the time being, and inflation expectations are comparatively high, which is good for gold and silver. And once supply chain issues are resolved, increasing demand from the auto industry will open up new opportunities for platinum and palladium.

The issue of supply chains will remain, because even if the constipation were to be resolved, they would change, says Sabeur. “Geopolitical aspects will play an important role in the future. We believe some American companies will reconsider investing in and engaging in China. The Europeans will also have to follow suit here.”

In addition, a conflict with Russia is looming, which could affect energy prices.

Last but not least, the necessary investments in the course of the transition to a more sustainable production method would initially require more raw materials - not least metals, which are likely to play a greater role in the move away from petrochemistry.

That is already a paradox.

“The Glasgow Summit showed that it is not that easy.

You can't see it in black and white, there are a lot of shades of gray here," says Sabeur.

The situation for natural gas and uranium as bridging technologies is definitely positive, not least after the decision of the EU Commission to classify both nuclear energy and natural gas as climate-friendly. All in all, one still has to see how the topic will develop technically and which energy sources will ultimately be required for this. “And it is also a social issue. Producing durable goods with materials such as metals and wood is expensive. The question is whether the population will ultimately play along.”

Under the given circumstances, euro investors could particularly benefit from rising commodity prices.

If the transatlantic interest rate differential increases as a result of the different monetary policies, the euro will continue to depreciate against the dollar.

Given that commodities are traded in dollars, this is an advantage for European investors.