How real estate loans "stabilize rigid demand"
reporter Guo Ziyuan
The policy effect of "stabilizing rigid demand" for real estate loans is gradually emerging.
According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, as of the end of December 2021, the national real estate loan balance was 52.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of September.
The latest data from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission shows that the reasonable housing needs of home buyers have been further met, and more than 90% of personal housing loans are used to support the first home.
A number of industry insiders said that future real estate loans should start from both the total amount and the structure, and strengthen the guidance of expectations.
In terms of total volume, we will resolutely implement "housing for housing, not speculation", and maintain a stable growth rate of real estate loans and orderly delivery; in terms of structure, we will adhere to "retention and pressure". The second is to resolutely curb the illegal entry of "business loans" into the property market; at the same time, increase support for the long-term rental market and the construction of affordable housing.
Keeping mortgage growth stable
Keeping the growth rate of real estate loans stable is of great significance for stabilizing the macro economy and preventing and defusing financial risks.
On the one hand, the real estate industry is large in scale, has a long chain, and involves a wide range of jobs.
"A reasonable and moderate growth rate of real estate loans will promote the growth of the national economy," said Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory.
On the other hand, the demand for residential housing remains strong.
Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the current urbanization rate of my country's permanent population is 63.9%, which is still in the stage of rapid urbanization. Every year, more than 11 million new jobs are created in cities and towns, bringing a large number of new housing needs.
Real estate loans consist of two parts, one is real estate development loans for real estate companies, and the other is personal mortgage loans for home buyers.
Analysis of the housing loan growth data released by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission shows that it shows a trend of "stable and slowing down".
As of the end of April, June, July, September, and November 2021, the year-on-year growth rates of mortgage loans were 10.5%, 10.3%, 8.7%, 8.6%, and 8.4%, respectively.
Why is there a steady decline?
On the one hand, this is a remarkable achievement of fully implementing the long-term mechanism for real estate and curbing the trend of real estate financialization and bubbles;
"Individual large real estate companies are exposed to risks, financial institutions' risk appetite for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has dropped significantly." Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, said in October 2021.
In addition, some banks have misinterpreted the financing management rules of key real estate enterprises, resulting in the reasonable financing needs of some real estate enterprises not being effectively met.
In order to reduce the "accidental injury" of reasonable and rigid financing needs, in the second half of 2021, especially the fourth quarter, the financial regulatory authorities have optimized the financing environment of the real estate industry and focused on "stabilizing expectations".
Among them, real estate loans increased by 773.4 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 202 billion yuan, and an increase of 157.8 billion yuan over the third quarter.
Zeng Gang believes that under the positioning of "housing, not speculating," various regulatory measures will be more precise, flexible and appropriate, and real estate loans will gradually "stabilize", creating a policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations". favorable conditions.
Accurately meet reasonable needs
In addition to stabilizing the total amount of credit, the credit structure also needs to be optimized to achieve "retention and pressure".
On the one hand, it is necessary to more effectively meet the reasonable and rigid financing needs of real estate companies and home buyers;
At present, real estate development loans have been restored in an orderly manner, and the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises are being effectively supported.
However, the follow-up work still faces some difficulties.
"Some high-leverage real estate companies still have risks, the financial tension has not been completely relieved, and there is pressure on debt repayment. Therefore, financial institutions will still be relatively cautious about the real estate industry." Zeng Gang said.
How to solve the above problem?
To promote the risk resolution of real estate enterprises in an orderly manner, the real estate development and operation model of "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover" formed in the past is no longer sustainable.
To this end, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in M&A Financial Services for Key Real Estate Enterprises' Risk Disposal Projects".
In addition to housing companies, the "rigid needs" of home buyers will also be guaranteed.
From November 2021, the central bank will release individual housing loan statistics.
Personal housing loans increased by 348.1 billion yuan in October, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan over September; and an increase of 401.3 billion yuan in November, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October.
In the current bank personal housing loans, more than 90% are first home loans.
"In the future, we will continue to provide differentiated support to groups in need in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate," said Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistics and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.
"Open the front door" and "block the side door".
Liu Zhongrui said that the financial supervision department will severely punish violations of laws and regulations, maintain a high-pressure situation, and strictly prevent the illegal flow of loans for business purposes into the real estate field to prevent a resurgence of chaos.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has carried out nationwide special inspections on real estate for four consecutive years, covering all hotspot cities.
Support the housing rental market
The Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", strengthen anticipation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to both renting and purchasing, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, and promote affordable housing. building.
Therefore, another important direction for the adjustment of the housing loan structure is to increase the support for the long-term rental market and the construction of affordable housing.
"We will speed up the improvement of the housing security system with public rental housing, affordable rental housing and co-ownership housing as the main body." Pan Wei, head of the Housing Security Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said, focusing on cities with high population inflows and high housing prices, we will accelerate development. Affordable rental housing.
According to the plan, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's 40 key cities plan to add 6.5 million units (rooms) of affordable rental housing, which is expected to solve the housing difficulties of 13 million people.
In recent years, financial support for the housing rental market has been increasing.
As of the end of November 2021, the growth rate of loans invested in the housing rental market is nearly 5 times the average growth rate of various loans.
It is understood that there are two main paths for credit funds to support affordable rental housing: one is to increase support for the construction and operation of affordable rental housing, and banks provide long-term loans to self-sustaining entities of affordable rental housing in a market-oriented manner; Loans are provided to housing leasing companies that renovate or renovate existing houses to form non-self-owned property-guaranteed rental housing.
"As of the end of November 2021, CCB's comprehensive housing rental service platform has covered 96% of the country's prefecture-level and above administrative regions, and issued corporate housing rental loans of 78.598 billion yuan." China Construction Bank President Wang Jiang said.
Financial services innovation also needs to accelerate.
"ICBC Credit Suisse Investment has successfully issued the country's first provincial-level talent apartment REITs product, which has made positive innovations and beneficial explorations for financial support of housing leasing construction." The relevant person in charge of ICBC said that in the future, it will study the innovative operation model of housing leasing companies , improve the rental housing loan product system, improve the level of financial services, and promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Guo Ziyuan