Zhongxin Finance, Beijing, January 17 (Reporter Zhao Jianhua) In 2021, my country's economy will grow by 8.1%.

Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, believes that the proactive fiscal policy has achieved the expected results. The proactive fiscal policy formulated by the central government is forward-looking and a pragmatic policy of high output and low input.

  At the "2022 China Economic Situation Analysis Conference" hosted by China News Agency on the 17th, Bai Jingming pointed out that active fiscal policy has low cost, low risk and good effect, which is reflected in three aspects: moderate intensity of fiscal policy, fiscal policy. Policies are targeted, and fiscal policies are combined with reforms.

  - The intensity of fiscal policy is moderate.

  Fiscal policy maintains and stabilizes growth, but does not engage in flood irrigation, maintains moderate intensity, and avoids excessive costs and risks.

In 2021, taking into account the effective control of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of the economy, the deficit rate will be set at around 3.2%, which is lower than last year, and the deficit scale will be 3.57 trillion yuan, 190 billion yuan less than in 2020; special bonds will be 3.65 trillion yuan , 100 billion yuan less than in 2020.

  Bai Jingming said that at the time, people were still debating whether it was appropriate for (the deficit) to be smaller, but now it seems to be moderate.

With the deficit scale and the scale of special debt declining, the economic growth rate has risen, with the annual economic growth rate of 8.1%.

Under special circumstances in 2020, the deficit rate will increase.

In 2021, actively adjusting the deficit rate will actually reduce costs.

  The deficit has increased from 1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, which has grown rapidly in recent years, and has accumulated some principal and interest that need to be repaid.

When appropriate, costs need to be reduced.

The premise of cost reduction is to maintain a moderate stimulus to economic growth.

China has achieved this goal, so the policy choice is appropriate and the intensity is appropriate.

  ——Fiscal policy is precise.

  From the perspective of economic data, fiscal policy has played a role in precise force.

Tax cuts and fee reductions coupled with expansionary spending are the characteristics of our fiscal policy.

A combination of high-intensity tax cuts and fee reductions and high-intensity expansion spending.

Bai Jingming said that this is a typical example in the world. Many countries in the world have not been so strong in both aspects.

  In 2020, more than 2.6 trillion yuan will be cut in taxes and fees, and the national general public budget will spend 24.66 trillion yuan.

In 2021, the scale will be appropriately reduced, but the efficiency of the policy will be enhanced mainly through precise efforts.

  The key points of tax and fee reduction include: preference for individual industrial and commercial households, small, medium and micro enterprises, and preference for supporting innovation and manufacturing.

The policy goals have been achieved, with 12.69 million new jobs created in cities and towns throughout the year, an increase of 830,000 over the previous year.

The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 18.2% and 12.9% respectively.

Employment expansion mainly relies on small, medium and micro enterprises, and the transformation of the economy mainly comes from advanced manufacturing.

The rapid development of the digital economy and equipment manufacturing industry is related to the precise efforts to reduce taxes and fees.

  From the perspective of expenditure, the precise force of fiscal policy is very important to promote economic development: increased investment in infrastructure, increased expenditure to protect people's livelihood, and increased support for relatively backward regions.

During this period, financial support for social security has supported the stability of national consumption and the stability of life of retirees.

Bai Jingming said that this is the foundation of economic and social development and stability.

  In addition, the scale of local transfer payments has continued to expand.

In 2021, transfer payments from the central government to local governments are expected to be 8,337 billion yuan, higher than in 2020, of which general transfer payments will increase by 7.8%, which is significantly higher than last year.

Of the 25 trillion yuan of general public budget expenditures in the country, 8.3 trillion yuan is close to one-third, and these expenditures are mainly inclined to the central and western regions. After the inclination to the central and western regions, the basic livelihood, wages, and operations will be guaranteed, which will ensure the growth of investment. .

During this period, instead of flooding, we will make precise efforts to boost economic growth and create favorable conditions for economic growth by injecting funds into places that are short-circuited and delivering charcoal in need (urgently in need of funds).

  - Combining fiscal policy with reform.

  Through institutional reform, the reform guarantees the realization of policy objectives, policy strength and efficiency.

  Bai Jingming gave an example, such as direct financial funds.

If funds are not injected into the grassroots in a timely manner through institutional reform, no matter how large the amount of funds is, the mechanism is not smooth, and the time lags will not be effective.

Performance management reforms in recent years have also ensured capital efficiency.

  At the same time, insist on the government to live a tight life, reduce general government expenditure, free up funds, and use it for people's livelihood and counter-cyclical adjustment, so that fiscal policies can be implemented in a timely, effective and low-cost manner.

Fiscal policy achieved the expected goals and played a supporting role in economic growth.

  For the year 2022, which has just started, Bai Jingming believes that active fiscal policy should continue to improve efficiency, select investment projects according to the needs of social development, and at the same time make precise efforts to ensure people's livelihood.

Investment spending must be ahead of the curve, and invest in projects with high multiplier effects and marginal effects.

(Finish)

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