Free time, the necessary money and the desire to travel - according to the research association Holiday and Travel (FUR), these are the ingredients that lead to holiday bookings.

And the combination of all three seems to be present in more German households than ever before.

At 48 percent, almost half of the 2,500 people surveyed for the annual FUR travel analysis stated that there would certainly be days off, suitable economic circumstances and a desire to explore in 2022.

Timo Kotowski

Editor in Business.

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"We have never experienced such a value since the start of the survey in 2009," said Kiel tourism researcher Martin Lohmann on Friday.

A year ago, only 38 percent were so willing to travel.

Two years ago, when Corona was not an everyday topic, it was only 44 percent.

However, a record year for the travel industry is not in sight.

"In the next two to three years, traces of the pandemic will disappear from tourism," said Lohmann.

"But that doesn't happen overnight and certainly not in 2022." The "pent-up desire to travel" that the researchers diagnose does not automatically lead to "bumping demand." There are only good conditions.

9 percent rule out vacation trips

The travel group TUI had declared in December that it wanted to reach the pre-crisis level in German business for the summer of 2022.

The fact that the collapsed Thomas Cook Group, a major competitor, should also contribute to this.

The pandemic is still shaking the industry.

Lohmann was actually supposed to speak in front of an audience at the CMT travel fair in Stuttgart, but the industry show has been replaced by video appointments.

The fact that, according to the research data, only 9 percent of those surveyed categorically rule out vacation trips for 2022 is only a glimmer of hope that bookings are still pending.

Half as many early birds as before Corona

According to figures from the travel market researcher TDA, the early booking business by the end of November was only half the size it was before the pandemic. TDA explained that December began with more bookings by saying that incidences in Germany were falling at the time and the omicron wave was not yet noticeable. In January, the most important month in the early booking business, things are different.

However, the researchers working with Lohmann found no evidence that travel behavior after the pandemic could be completely different.

"The big ones stay big," he said, referring to popular foreign destinations such as Spain, Italy and Turkey.

Domestic holidays would remain the trend, long-distance travel, for example to Thailand, would only play a subordinate role.

"But that's not because nobody wants to go there anymore, but barriers and restrictions on travel are having an effect." In 2021, changing travel restrictions and shortages in flight and hotel capacities would have dampened demand more than the fear of infections.

"Inflation not a brake on demand"

Lohmann also sees no reason for a swan song for package tours sold by tour operators such as TUI, FTI and Alltours, although the pandemic brought boom periods for holiday homes and camping trips. "Anyone who has traveled with a tour operator in the past would like to do so again - even if they may not have done so in 2020 and 2021," said Lohmann.

The decision whether to choose a package tour or a holiday home also depends on the destination. For Mallorca, the package with flight and hotel is usually the cheapest option, in many German regions the holiday apartment is standard. During the pandemic, travel companies advertised that they would take care of customers in emergencies, while individual travelers had to do it themselves. Whether the Corona crisis could even give package providers a boost cannot be seen from the researcher data either.

According to Lohmann, international tourism fell by more than 70 percent in 2021 compared to 2019 - to the level of 1987. In Germany, older people over 60 and people from low-income households in particular gave up vacations.

He is not afraid that price increases will become an obstacle to the industry when it restarts.

“Less has been spent on travel, but the money is still in the households.

Inflation will not curb demand.”