(Economic Observation) China's economic "14th Five-Year Plan" is off to a good start

  China News Service, Beijing, January 17 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on the 17th that China's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 8.1% in 2021.

Facing multiple challenges such as the complex and severe international environment and the spread of domestic epidemics, China has recorded a GDP growth rate of over 8% for the first time since 2012, marking a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan".

  Behind the 8.1%, in the past year, China's nominal GDP has increased from 101 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) to 114 trillion yuan, an increase of about 13 trillion yuan.

Ning Jizhe, director of China's National Bureau of Statistics, revealed that the increase is equivalent to US$2 trillion at the average annual exchange rate, which is equivalent to the economic aggregate of a relatively large major economy in the world in one year.

  This also means that in 2021, China's total economic volume will reach 114.4 trillion yuan, exceeding 110 trillion yuan, and at an annual average exchange rate, it will reach 17.7 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world and accounting for more than 18% of the global economy. .

The per capita GDP is 80,976 yuan, converted at the annual average exchange rate, reaching 12,551 US dollars, exceeding 12,000 US dollars.

  Against this background, the main expected targets for the whole year of economic and social development proposed by the Chinese government last year have been fully realized.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher at the Counselor's Office of the State Council of China and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in 2021, the internal and external environment of China's economy will be full of difficulties and challenges. Said that China's economy has achieved a good answer.

  Behind the 8.1%, all three major demands made positive contributions to economic growth throughout the year.

According to official estimates, in 2021, final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services will drive economic growth by 5.3, 1.1, and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, contributing 65.4%, 13.7%, and 20.9% to economic growth.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that compared with the years before the epidemic, the contribution rate of net exports increased significantly, the contribution rate of consumption rose steadily and slightly, and the contribution rate of investment dropped significantly, mainly due to the strong external demand driving China's exports to maintain a high growth rate .

  However, with the passage of time to 2022, after 8.1%, the Chinese economy will also face a kinetic energy switch.

One of the clearest signs is that exports, which were booming in 2021, will be challenged this year.

  Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Chinese Academy of Commerce, bluntly said that under the influence of a series of factors such as the slowing global economic recovery, high prices of bulk commodities and raw materials, high international shipping prices, and a high base, it is indeed difficult for China's exports to continue to maintain high growth in 2022. larger.

  In terms of domestic demand, it is also worth paying attention to whether the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment, which continued to decline last year, can stabilize and rebound. Especially in the fourth quarter of last year, the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth has dropped to a negative value.

In addition, the recovery of consumption under the repeated epidemics also faces many constraints.

  In this regard, Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, judged that in 2022, the "filling effect" and "low base effect" of China's exports will weaken simultaneously, and overseas demand may also weaken.

However, the overall good situation of exports will continue for a period of time, and the marginal slowdown trend may gradually take shape.

However, the consumption areas affected by the epidemic will gradually be repaired, and outdoor consumption such as tourism, catering, aviation, and accommodation will gradually improve, but it may be difficult to see "retaliatory" growth.

  On the investment side, Ning Jizhe said that despite the complex and severe international environment, the impact of the global epidemic is still ongoing, posing certain constraints on investment growth.

However, from the perspective of China's development stage, there is potential, space and motivation to expand effective investment.

  Tang Jianwei specifically mentioned that high-end manufacturing investment may continue to maintain rapid growth this year, driving manufacturing investment to become the fastest growing investment among the three categories of investment.

The manufacturing industry continues to receive credit support, and policies support the transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing and traditional industries. Not only a large number of new high-tech manufacturing investments, but also a large number of investment needs brought about by the upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries.

  In general, Wen Bin believes that in order to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range, it is necessary to further expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand.

From a policy point of view, policies to support stable growth in various aspects have been successively introduced and implemented. Policies with obvious effects such as tax cuts, fee reductions, RRR cuts, and interest rate cuts have already been implemented, and it is expected to make progress ahead.

  He suggested that in the next stage, macro policies should further form a synergy. On the one hand, on the basis of making good use of the policies that have been issued, it is still necessary to introduce more On the other hand, it is necessary to deal with various internal and external risks and shocks to create a safe and stable environment for economic recovery.

(Finish)