The Gulf countries and China, "a relationship of interdependence"

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (photo illustration), ANGELOS TZORTZINIS AFP

Text by: Nicolas Falez Follow

3 mins

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain: the foreign ministers of these four Gulf monarchies are in China this week, at the invitation of their counterpart Wang Yi.

What are the challenges of this group visit?

Analysis by Camille Lons, associate researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

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RFI: How to analyze the visit, this week in China, of the representatives of four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council? Is it a question of talking about energy (oil) or politics?

Camille Lons:

It's a way of covering all issues relating to countries' relations with

, the energy issue, but also more broadly economic issues since it's a question of a free trade agreement which is on the table for quite a long time, partnerships in the field of renewable energies, new technologies, health, etc. The idea is to address all that, but also the political issues since the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs will meet Wang Yi [the head of Chinese diplomacy] in Beijing. So for these Gulf monarchies, it will also be an opportunity to express their concern about

negotiations .

China is indeed one of the countries currently negotiating with Iran in Vienna to try to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. How does it fit into the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran?

China maintains its position: not to get involved in geopolitical issues in the Gulf and to maintain a position of balance between the various powers in the region.

US allies in the Middle East are often described as countries worried about US strategic reorientation.

Is this what is present in the background of this visit?

The relationship with the United States, the main ally of the Gulf monarchies, and the fear of an American withdrawal from the region are indeed in the background of the relationship between the Gulf countries and China.

There has also been friction in recent months between the United Arab Emirates (which is not taking part in this week's joint visit to Beijing) and Washington, over joint projects in the Emirates and Beijing such as intelligence artificial or 5G.

There have even been press reports of plans for a Chinese base in the United Arab Emirates.

Who is dependent on whom?

The China of the oil producers or the Gulf monarchies of such a big customer?

It is a relationship of interdependence. China has become the largest importer of oil in the world, inevitably its economy is very dependent on oil that comes from the Gulf region. And conversely, as China is one of the largest customers of these countries (and particularly of

), their prosperity depends on Chinese imports. But this balance is shifting in favor of China. With the energy transition, there is a prospect of declining oil prices in the very long term. China having taken care to diversify its energy sources in recent years, turning to Russia, Brazil or Angola, it is less and less dependent on the Gulf countries.

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