On January 12, the news of the "collective flash crash of lithium carbonate prices" caused heated discussions in the industry.
A quotation from the Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was pushed on several financial information platforms: the prices of lithium carbonate in several contracts fell collectively. As of 10:20 a.m. on January 12, the decline was more than 10%, and the lithium price index fell by nearly 11%.
Lithium prices at the trading center have plummeted for two consecutive days.
Available information shows that Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center Co., Ltd. was established in 2006 and is a private enterprise with natural person Yu Xiaochun as the legal representative.
The existing trading varieties include stainless steel, nickel, indium, cobalt, tin and new energy varieties, etc. There are two trading modes of spot spot and spot medium and forward, which belong to the spot and forward trading platform, not the domestic futures exchange.
It is understood that there are currently 5 futures exchanges in China: Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, China Financial Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and the commodity contracts run by the rest of the trading platforms are not regular futures contracts.
Therefore, the lithium carbonate contract launched by Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center in July 2021 is not a lithium carbonate future in the true sense, but a forward trading contract derived from the spot market.
It is reported that the lithium price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center has fallen, which may be due to the increase in the trading margin of the platform, which has led to a large short-term selling in its own market.
The reporter from The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) called and learned that both the increase in the platform's trading margin and the fall in the price of lithium carbonate were true.
The trading platform shows that there are currently 3 lithium carbonate contracts listed, with contracts expiring in February, April and June 2022.
On January 12, the average price fell by more than 11%. The closing prices were 345.5 yuan/kg, 350.5 yuan/kg, and 355 yuan/kg respectively. After conversion, it was about 350,000 yuan/ton, which was still slightly higher than the current spot price after the decline. .
At present, the news has not had a significant impact on the domestic lithium carbonate industry and the stock market.
On January 12, the trend of lithium mining concept stocks diverged. Tibet Chengtou, Tibet Everest and Tibet Mining all fell by more than 2%, Ganfeng Lithium rose 3.39%, and Tianqi Lithium rose 2.15%.
Leading lithium battery stocks performed well, with CATL up 5.28% and BYD up 7.07%.
As of the close on January 13, the lithium mining concept stocks fell as a whole. Tibet City Investment, Tibet Everest and Tibet Mining all fell by more than 3%, Ganfeng Lithium fell 3.26%, and Tianqi Lithium fell 6.44%.
Leading lithium battery stocks remained stable, with CATL down 0.01% and BYD down 0.27%.
According to the reporter's statistics, the prices of bulk commodity quotation platforms such as Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Asian Metal, Baichuan Yingfu, and Business Club are all on the rise.
On January 12, 2022, the latest data from SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network showed that the average price of spodumene concentrate was US$2,300/ton, the average price of metallic lithium was 1.575 million yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 298,000 yuan/ton. The average price of grade lithium carbonate is 316,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide is 25.3 yuan/ton.
According to the data of the business society, the latest price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 312,600 yuan / ton, and the latest price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 335,000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 80% in the past three months.
2021 will be a year when the price of lithium carbonate continues to reach new highs, with an annual increase of more than 400%.
According to previous reports by CCTV Finance, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has staged a "triple jump" within a year, with an increase of nearly 30% in December alone.
Data show that the third round of lithium price hikes may come.
Since the third quarter of 2020, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from about 40,000/ton to about 300,000/ton.
According to the lithium carbonate index chart of the business club in the past four years, it can be seen that in mid-September 2020, lithium carbonate ushered in the lowest price in the past four years. At that time, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 38,900 yuan/ton, and battery-grade carbonate The average price of lithium is 43,900 yuan/ton.
Since 2022, the domestic lithium price has risen by 13%, setting a new record, and the tension between the supply and demand of lithium carbonate has further intensified.
According to relevant media reports, the price of Changzhou Zhonglian Gold battery-grade lithium carbonate contract LC2206 has risen to 400,000 yuan/ton last week, which is 116,000 yuan/ton higher than the current electric carbon price.
On January 12, the price of lithium carbonate of Henan Diduo Chemical Products Co., Ltd. reached a new high, reaching 366,000 yuan / ton.
Even though the price of lithium has risen to "astronomical prices", there are still people in the industry who say that some customers are unable to get the goods, and the company has no excess inventory.
According to the latest analysis of the business agency, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the maintenance period of lithium salt manufacturers has led to the continuous reduction of lithium salt production. Under the background of strong demand for downstream stocking, the current market in February and March is slightly normal for downstream stocking. The lack of supply in the market will continue to drive the price of lithium salts to continue to rise.
At present, the production of lithium carbonate has been declining for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. However, the demand side of cathode material production remains high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise strongly in the short term.
Dongxing Securities analysis pointed out that in 2022, despite the heavy supply of Australian mines and salt lakes, the market demand for new energy vehicles is expected to continue its strong structural expansion. Resource consumption, supply of lithium salts and lithium mines may remain relatively tight (especially in the first half of 2022).
According to industry estimates, the tight supply in the lithium carbonate market will ease in the second half of 2022 as new production capacity is put into operation.
It is worth noting that if the domestic supervision of lithium price speculation is strengthened, the lithium price may be controlled to a certain extent, which can be compared to the previous coal market trend.
The development of new energy vehicles is related to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal, and the high price of lithium will increase the cost pressure of power battery manufacturers, thus making new energy vehicles face the risk of losing price competitiveness.