China Business Daily (Reporter Zhou Ziyu) At the beginning of 2022, two major dramas have emerged around Maotai.
This box of Maotai's zodiac wine for the Year of the Tiger is hot, and Maotai's entry into the metaverse has attracted heated discussions.
Insiders revealed that the Moutai liquor market in 2021 will be hot before and cold.
One-handedly stir-frying zodiac wine and one-handed entry into the Metaverse
The topic of Maotai's entry into the metaverse has recently attracted heated discussions.
The reason is that on January 5th, at the 2021 Guizhou Moutai Maotai Series Liquor National Distributors Association held in Guiyang City, Li Jingren, general manager of Maotai Group, said that it is necessary to build a drunken and beautiful "yuan universe" belonging to the Maotai series of wines, with More excellent results interpret "MT" and create a new future.
For a time, the news of Maotai's entry into the Metaverse spread like wildfire, and the outside world was looking forward to how the current hot word would react to Maotai's big IP.
There is also news that some companies have preemptively registered the trademark "Moutai Yuan Universe".
Then Moutai urgently refuted the rumors, and a relevant person close to Maotai told a reporter from China Business Daily that "metaverse" is just an adjective and does not need to be interpreted too much.
In this regard, Cai Xuefei, an analyst in the liquor industry and general manager of Zhiqu Consulting, told a reporter from China Business Daily that Maotai's entry into the Metaverse can be seen as a technological innovation of state-owned Maotai.
Zhang Haoran, a liquor practitioner, told a reporter from China Business Daily that Maotai's entry into the metaverse not only fits the current hot spots, but also caters to the new gameplay of young people.
The Metaverse may bring about the reconstruction of my country's business model in the future. It is a new way of playing the fourth-generation Internet. Many young people will participate in it. Moutai's entry into the Metaverse can shorten the distance between it and young people.
At the same time, another major hot event triggered by Maotai is the hype of zodiac wine in the Year of the Tiger.
It is understood that the market guide price of 53%vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Tiger Year zodiac wine (hereinafter referred to as Maotai Tiger Year zodiac wine) released a few days ago is 2499 yuan/bottle, and the market price is much higher than this price.
A reporter from China Business Daily found that on an e-commerce platform, the price of the above-mentioned products was 5,679 yuan/bottle after receiving coupons.
Wang Wenli (pseudonym), a channel merchant who has been engaged in the Moutai liquor business all the year round, told the China Business Daily reporter that the current price of Moutai Zodiac Liquor for the Year of the Tiger is around 6,000 yuan per bottle, but the price of this product is high, but there is almost no pre-order. The feeling of "unrequited love".
In addition, this product has not yet arrived, and it is expected that the price will drop significantly to a reasonable level after arrival.
Wang Qiming (pseudonym), another Moutai channel merchant who has been deeply involved in the wine industry for many years, also told a reporter from China Business Daily that although the price of the Maotai zodiac wine market speculation is high, it is currently all futures, and there is no spot. It is a bit "playing games". It is expected that the price will quickly drop to below 5,000 yuan/bottle after the product arrives.
In fact, the current price of Maotai zodiac wine for the Year of the Pig, the Year of the Rat, the Year of the Dog, and the Year of the Rooster is more than 3,000 yuan/bottle to 4,000 yuan/bottle.
Moutai hype is gradually fading
The two hot spots at the beginning of the new year made the topic of hyping Moutai again attract attention.
In fact, at the beginning of the launch of Chinese zodiac wine, Maotai will be hotly hyped by the market, and then the price will gradually fall.
At present, the price of Maotai zodiac wine is higher in the year of the horse, the year of the sheep and the year of the monkey, while the price of the zodiac wine in the year of the dog, the year of the rooster, the year of the rat, the year of the pig, and the year of the ox has fallen.
Wang Wenli revealed that at present, the price of Maotai zodiac wine for the year of the sheep has been fired to more than 30,000 yuan per bottle, and the price of zodiac wine for the year of the horse is also more than 20,000 yuan per bottle. The price of ox zodiac wine is around 4,000 yuan per bottle.
In his opinion, because the quality of Moutai zodiac wine is average and the same as ordinary Feitian Moutai, the enthusiasm for market speculation is gradually fading.
"The previous hype about the zodiac wine in the Year of the Ox led to many people being 'cutted with leeks', and today's zodiac wine in the Year of the Tiger is expected to have a similar situation."
In addition, it is understood that Moutai launched a Xiangyi Wuzhou series in June 2021, which attracted a lot of hype at the beginning of the listing, and then the price dropped sharply.
Wang Qiming revealed that the Maotai Xiangyi Wuzhou series was hotly hyped to nearly 7,000 yuan per bottle, but the current price is only slightly more than 3,000 yuan per bottle, which is not much higher than the price of Feitian Moutai.
In the eyes of many Moutai distributors, the enthusiasm for hyping Moutai in the market is gradually fading.
Wang Wenli bluntly stated that from the multi-dimensional analysis of the capital market, consumer recognition, and consumer spending power, Moutai is on the decline.
In 2021, the sales and bottle opening rate of Moutai will not keep up with previous years, and the market heat is gradually fading.
"The reason is that in recent years, there has been continuous capital entry into the Moutai market, especially in the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021, a large influx of capital has led to the soaring prices of many varieties of Moutai, and in the second half of 2021, especially the Mid-Autumn Festival After the festival, a large amount of capital was withdrawn, which led to the deterioration of the monetization ability of Moutai.”
Wang Qiming said bluntly that in the past five years, no matter what the reasons are, the price of Moutai has been increasing. Nowadays, the foam of many kinds of Moutai has become very large, and the price of some products has even doubled.
These wines are not drunk in the end, but flow back and forth between dealers and liquor collectors, without really reaching consumers.
In 2021, many channel dealers and liquor collectors will not have enough money. Coupled with the withdrawal of capital, there will be fewer people taking over a variety of Moutai liquors, and the market liquidity will deteriorate.
A scalper who is engaged in the Moutai liquor business also admitted to a reporter from China Business Daily that the prices of many products of the Maotai Matrix have declined compared with the high level.
"I'm going to hoard the Moutai in my hand until around the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2022 before selling it."
What is the future trend of Moutai liquor market?
It can be seen that the Moutai liquor market in 2021 will be hot before and then cold, so what will be the future trend of the Moutai liquor market?
In this regard, Wang Wenli said that the price increase of Moutai is not a one-day event, but is formed under the joint action of multiple factors and multiple capitals.
Likewise, the drop in the price of Moutai won't happen in a day.
Therefore, Moutai will not sell in a short period of time, there is still a lot of demand in the market, but compared with the previous time, the realization speed is slower and the efficiency is lower. Collectors and dealers have more stock and less working capital. .
In Wang Wenli's view, in the future, in the process of the price of Moutai gradually returning to rationality, many opportunistic people will be eliminated, and those who remain in the liquor business in a regular manner and have sufficient strength.
"As a Moutai channel dealer, we don't think this is a bad thing. The hype is that some people make money and others lose money. We all hope that the price of Moutai will return to a stable and sustainable development trend as soon as possible."
Cai Xuefei also believes that the hot promotion of Maotai's zodiac wine for the Year of the Tiger reflects that some of Maotai's high-premium products are idling in channels, not for consumption, but adopting an operation mode for financial value-added.
This will indeed make Moutai face the risk of being overpriced and out of the market operation level, and there may be a problem that some markets have prices and no market, but this situation will not occur on a large scale.
Cai Xuefei believes that the price of Moutai will rise steadily in the future.
Because the three major attributes of Moutai as a consumer product, investment product and financial product have not changed, it will enter a period of consolidation after a period of rapid expansion, the market will enter the stage of stock competition, and the intensity of competition will gradually increase. It has affected the development of Maotai, but the sustainable development of Maotai is still recognized by the market.
Zhang Haoran also believes that the popularity of Moutai will continue for a while, and the price trend of Moutai will also rise steadily.
On the one hand, it is affected by consumption upgrades; on the other hand, the many price control measures introduced by Moutai have made Moutai’s price stable, and Moutai’s popularity in the consumer market is still acceptable.